The Predictions
Yes, useless as always (witness the annual humiliation called the Bracket, for example) but equally difficult to avoid, the baseless predictions, this time for the baseball season.
And it is in fact a pleasure (or shall be) some five months from now to look back and thing wow, how bloody daft could I have been to think that? Or if a lucky bet comes to fruition, link to this very article down the road with some smug I-told-you-so phrase on the fingertips.
So for the sake of nothing more than a record, here are my predictions for the 2007 season:
1. Roger Clemens - Will end up with the Yankees this season in order to bring balance to the absurdly imbalanced advantage in starting pitching the Red Sox currently have over the Yankees. It also makes sense. Why go back to the Sox, the only team that said they didn't want him? That said that he was all washed up so many years ago we've all lost count.
I point to this as number one because it is a decision that will likely have a strong influence on the outcome not only of the AL East but the entire post season, Clemens' mission, should he choose to take it. And let's face it, he isn't going to join a club that already has the Japanese Roger Clemens on it anyway, is he?
2. The Disappointments -
a. Nats fans, generally. Not because they're expecting anything anyway but isn't everyone in DC just waiting for the announcement that due to the top in fan interest in a hopelessly losing team the Nats will be moving their franchise to Mexico City or San Juan...
b. The Tigers, whose young arms will burn out because they just can't take that kind of season that young two seasons in a row. Let's call it the Cubs phenomenon, the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior Stigma.
c. The Cubs, simply because they disappoint every year after year and Lou Piniella is not big enough to change that, otherwise he'd have won the World Series with those Mariners teams of auld.
d. The Phillies - and boy oh boy am I going to enjoy watching this season's Phillies flush themselves down the toilet yet again after all the smack they've talked already this season about being the team to beat. Helloooo? Flash Gordon is your closer. Wake up, muppets.
3. The Suprises -
a. Milwaukee Brewers: last year in the legacy of teams rising from the death of the Rust Belt, was the Tigers turn. This year it's time for another perennial loser to rise from the ashes and fly to improbable heights.
b. Sammy Sosa: is he really a surprise? Nah, for some whacky reason, I'm rooting for this guy to make a comeback. More than I care if the petulant Barry Bonds' steroid-ridden joints don't crumble to dust before he reaches Henry Aaron's mark and more than I care if the cowardly Mark McGwire ever makes it to the Hall of Fame after his performance in the face of Congressional hearings.
c. Ben Sheets - let's just say a monster season in store for this lad who has inched along the edge of greatness for the last several seasons.
d. Texas Rangers - no, not because of Sammy Sosa but because Buck Showalter is no longer the manager. That in and of itself usually spells a World Championship. It happened after he left the Yankees and again after he left the Diamondbacks. Watch out Rangers, it's the post Buck Showalter Bump.
Finishes
NL EAST
Mets
Atlanta
Philly
Florida
Nats
NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee
St Louis
Chicago
Cincinnati
Houston
NL WESt
Arizona
San Diego
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Colorado (what? STILL in the league?!)
NL MVP: Jose Reyes, NY Mets
NL CY YOUNG: Ben Sheets, Milwaukee
AL EAST
Boston
NY Yankees
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland
ChiSox
Minnesota
Detroit
KC
AL WEST
Texas
LA/Anaheim
Seattle
Oakland
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira, Texas
AL CY YOUNG: Roy Holliday, Toronto
PLAYOFFS
NL
NY Mets over Milwaukee
Arizona over Atlanta
NY Mets over Arizona
AL
Cleveland over Boston
NYY over Texas
Cleveland over NYY
WORLD SERIES
Cleveland over NY Mets
Monday, March 19, 2007
Hookaye lads and lasses, we're down to the Sweet Sixteen and there aren't many surprises. In the West, the 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds remain. South: 1, 2, 3, 5. East: 1, 2, 5, 6. Midwest: 1, 3, 5, 7. Of the top 12 seeds, only two, Wisconsin and Washington State, lost in the first two rounds No "true" Cinderella's in the pack which means my choices of 11th seeded VCU making it along with 14th seeded Oral Roberts were pretty much sperm tadpoles never destined to make it to the mother egg to begin with.
That said Sports Amnesia have 10 of the final 16 standing, or just a hair over mediocre but not humiliating. Primarily because there is no March Madness office pool in England except for maybe the American embassy in London so I don't have to hold up my 10 whilst hanging my head because some overweight suburban mother of two who has never watched a game of college hoops in her entire life, got 12 out of 16 right by guessing based upon team nicknames she fancied.
Of course she probably wasn't as big a plonker as Sports Amnesia's whose pool went bust the minute Wisconsin did their predictable swan dive off the roof and into oblivion.
Guess there's only Memphis left to root for.
Beisbal
Phillies of Philly - Let's face it, despite the impressive array of talent that's been amassed the bottom line is the bullpen sucks and if the bullpen sucks they are going to give away alot of victories they should have had.
And if you like to worry you only have to look as far as the Philly's closer, Tom Gordon, half hurt, half incompetent to worry.
Too boot, the rest of the pen consists of the rehab returned Alfonseca (9.00 earned run average) to back him up along with Fabio Castro (9.35) and Matt Smith(12.00) to make sure the Phillies don't win a game they aren't winning by a dozen runs in the 7th.
*****
More on The Destruction of The O's by Peter Angeleos:
That said Sports Amnesia have 10 of the final 16 standing, or just a hair over mediocre but not humiliating. Primarily because there is no March Madness office pool in England except for maybe the American embassy in London so I don't have to hold up my 10 whilst hanging my head because some overweight suburban mother of two who has never watched a game of college hoops in her entire life, got 12 out of 16 right by guessing based upon team nicknames she fancied.
Of course she probably wasn't as big a plonker as Sports Amnesia's whose pool went bust the minute Wisconsin did their predictable swan dive off the roof and into oblivion.
Guess there's only Memphis left to root for.
Beisbal
Phillies of Philly - Let's face it, despite the impressive array of talent that's been amassed the bottom line is the bullpen sucks and if the bullpen sucks they are going to give away alot of victories they should have had.
And if you like to worry you only have to look as far as the Philly's closer, Tom Gordon, half hurt, half incompetent to worry.
Too boot, the rest of the pen consists of the rehab returned Alfonseca (9.00 earned run average) to back him up along with Fabio Castro (9.35) and Matt Smith(12.00) to make sure the Phillies don't win a game they aren't winning by a dozen runs in the 7th.
*****
More on The Destruction of The O's by Peter Angeleos:
"Just when you probably thought things couldn't get worse for the Baltimore Orioles after nine losing seasons in a row, they have.
Much worse.
Owner Peter Angelos said over the weekend he has no plans to sell the club anytime soon, which should be more than enough to make remaining fans of the Orioles sob in their suds and swallow crab shells -- the hard kind."
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Brains Beer
No March Madness here in Merry Ole on St Paddy's Day, not when the Six Nations rugby was on the telly all afternoon with every game of the deciding Saturday round filling the hours with nail-biting, head-smashing brutality and blood.
What you see in the Six Nations that you won't see in a lifetime of March Madness however, is a team jersey sponsored by
a beer company.
That's right. The official jersey of Welsh rugby, good enough to beat England into a pulp in the Saturday finale:
Of course, it was not merely anticlimactic that the entire event was won by the French yet again. In fact, after Ireland had finished thrashing Italy 51-24 at the Stadio Flaminio yet surrendered an all-important try in the dying seconds of the match, France were faced with having to beat Scotland by at least 24 to clinch.
But as even the front page of Le Monde will tell you, La France remporte le Tournoi des Six nations, even if it was only on the last bloody play of the match with the title to be determined by an Irish judge who had to say yes, the final play was in fact a France try and even if it was only on points difference (forget about the fact the French stomped Ireland in Ireland a few weeks before...)
Elvis Vermeulen, hardly your typical French name, came on late to score the decisive try and hand France their fourth title in six years.
So it was exciting even without the basketball and this won't even begin to talk about Ireland St Paddy's Day Massacre of Pakistan in the Cricket World Cup, only the biggest upset in the history of the world cup. Good day for Ireland which, had they not allowed that last Italian try or if Scotland had not allowed that last second France try, would have been an even happier St Paddy's day with a Six Nations title to boot.
*****
MARCH MADNESS
In the Land of Premature Daylight Savings, the day was filled with basketball and further, albeit subtle swings and misses in The Bracket. Ah yes, lads. In The East, we cracked on with the predictable top seed victories in Carolina and GTown advancements. Having backed Oral Roberts, the Vandy victory was a wash. I have Texas over USC in a rematch of the NCAA football title two years ago.
In the South another easy day of picking favourites, Texas A&M and Ohio State both advancing albeit Ohio State only in OT and Texas A&M but the short and curlies, over Rick Pitino and the Cardinals, 72-69. For today, the picks are Memphis and my other darkhorse Long Beach State already took a spill so it doesn't much matter to the bracket if TN or VA win.
In the West, having madly reached for VCU, we took a spill on Pitt but were again redeemed in the favourites category when second-seeded UCLA overcame a boring Indiana's four corners snooze hoops misadventure. I have S Illinois and Kansas in the last two today.
And lastly, the East correctly chosen, Butler over Maryland, barely, 62-59. The remaining games today will require rooting for Florida, Wisconsin and Notre Dame but seeing as how the Irish were out before St Paddy's Day, Winthrop who so few likely had faith in, going another round, just to keep the bracket busters happy.
*****
And what about baseball you say? Well, it's still 14 days to Opening Day and even longer before Roger Clemens makes his decision but there's an interview with him - I learned one nugget from listening: what's the best pitch in baseball?
Strike one.
*****
No March Madness here in Merry Ole on St Paddy's Day, not when the Six Nations rugby was on the telly all afternoon with every game of the deciding Saturday round filling the hours with nail-biting, head-smashing brutality and blood.
What you see in the Six Nations that you won't see in a lifetime of March Madness however, is a team jersey sponsored by
a beer company.That's right. The official jersey of Welsh rugby, good enough to beat England into a pulp in the Saturday finale:
Of course, it was not merely anticlimactic that the entire event was won by the French yet again. In fact, after Ireland had finished thrashing Italy 51-24 at the Stadio Flaminio yet surrendered an all-important try in the dying seconds of the match, France were faced with having to beat Scotland by at least 24 to clinch.
But as even the front page of Le Monde will tell you, La France remporte le Tournoi des Six nations, even if it was only on the last bloody play of the match with the title to be determined by an Irish judge who had to say yes, the final play was in fact a France try and even if it was only on points difference (forget about the fact the French stomped Ireland in Ireland a few weeks before...)
Elvis Vermeulen, hardly your typical French name, came on late to score the decisive try and hand France their fourth title in six years.
So it was exciting even without the basketball and this won't even begin to talk about Ireland St Paddy's Day Massacre of Pakistan in the Cricket World Cup, only the biggest upset in the history of the world cup. Good day for Ireland which, had they not allowed that last Italian try or if Scotland had not allowed that last second France try, would have been an even happier St Paddy's day with a Six Nations title to boot.
*****
MARCH MADNESS
In the Land of Premature Daylight Savings, the day was filled with basketball and further, albeit subtle swings and misses in The Bracket. Ah yes, lads. In The East, we cracked on with the predictable top seed victories in Carolina and GTown advancements. Having backed Oral Roberts, the Vandy victory was a wash. I have Texas over USC in a rematch of the NCAA football title two years ago.
In the South another easy day of picking favourites, Texas A&M and Ohio State both advancing albeit Ohio State only in OT and Texas A&M but the short and curlies, over Rick Pitino and the Cardinals, 72-69. For today, the picks are Memphis and my other darkhorse Long Beach State already took a spill so it doesn't much matter to the bracket if TN or VA win.
In the West, having madly reached for VCU, we took a spill on Pitt but were again redeemed in the favourites category when second-seeded UCLA overcame a boring Indiana's four corners snooze hoops misadventure. I have S Illinois and Kansas in the last two today.
And lastly, the East correctly chosen, Butler over Maryland, barely, 62-59. The remaining games today will require rooting for Florida, Wisconsin and Notre Dame but seeing as how the Irish were out before St Paddy's Day, Winthrop who so few likely had faith in, going another round, just to keep the bracket busters happy.
*****
And what about baseball you say? Well, it's still 14 days to Opening Day and even longer before Roger Clemens makes his decision but there's an interview with him - I learned one nugget from listening: what's the best pitch in baseball?
Strike one.
*****
March Madness First Round
Right - out of 32 matches, 22 right. Many rash upset choices didn't pan out. Missed the Winthrop upset, as did most of you, I'm sure. My own madness, taking Oral Roberts into the 16 went to flames the first night out. Long Beach State also failed to pan out, losing to Tennessee. You see, you try to be crafty, you outthink yourself into a tailspin of losing. Missed Kentucky over Villanova, Indiana over Gonzaga. Oh yea, the Albany upset over Virginia never materialised either. However, I did get the VCU upset over Duke spot on. It pays to root against Duke once every dozen years or so.
Overall, out of my Sweet 16 candidates, after the first round, 13 are still alive.
Right - out of 32 matches, 22 right. Many rash upset choices didn't pan out. Missed the Winthrop upset, as did most of you, I'm sure. My own madness, taking Oral Roberts into the 16 went to flames the first night out. Long Beach State also failed to pan out, losing to Tennessee. You see, you try to be crafty, you outthink yourself into a tailspin of losing. Missed Kentucky over Villanova, Indiana over Gonzaga. Oh yea, the Albany upset over Virginia never materialised either. However, I did get the VCU upset over Duke spot on. It pays to root against Duke once every dozen years or so.
Overall, out of my Sweet 16 candidates, after the first round, 13 are still alive.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
March Mistress
Unload all the metaphors! Let loose the flying, unsubstantiated hysteria of hope and unpredictability! The NCAA tournament, the only blip in the amateur or professional basketball season worth noticing is finally here!
And just on time - how apropos that the NCAA tournament and the accompanying, dizzying array of possibilities swing around the corner at the same time the baseball season has just begun and similarly delusional dreams of people and teams destined for disappointment are simultaneously unwrapping the letterbomb of expectation not knowing if it will fizzle or explode.
But over here, in merry ole' there is no such obsession. On this side of the pond brackets are not being mass produced and hours of valuable productivity are not idled away dreaming up a multitude of possible scenarios, goats, unsung heroes and surprises. No, we are still here listening to politically expedient bravado about cutting emissions by 60%,fat chance, with no care about public transportation good luck - whilst over in America, men from state to state are pulling out their remaining hairs contemplating every possible scenario.
Well, the good news is, Sports Amnesia have sorted it all out for you.
That's right. We've combed through all the teams painstakingly just so you over in America can fill out your pools with confidence. We've looked at the trends, examined the rosters and coaches, reviewed seasons and games, watched hours and hours and hours of videotape and news broadcasts and stared vacantly at walls for days in an effort to conjure the answers to the eternal question: Who Will Be In The Final Four?!
Well, not exactly. In truth we've relied upon the science of not knowing for as everyone knows the office pool usually comes down to some twat who is actually somewhat of an inside gambling expert and some fat housewife who has never watched a basketball game in her life, closed her eyes and picked or based her picks on whether or not she liked the team nickname. So hours of planning is pointless save for the fun of it.
Here's how the regions quickly breakdowns as winners:
East - Ignorance is bliss. The one thing I knew before the brackets were announced was forget about the 16th seed. What you can know is that this is a strong group led by top seeds North Carolina and Georgetown. North Carolina would have to beat anyone from New Mexico State to a surprise Texas team to make it to the finals of the group. Georgetown on the other hand, have a relatively simple path Vanderbilt and Texas Tech. Forget about Boston College. My picks: Upsets -I've only got one and that is Oral Roberts making it to the Round of 16. Why? Because I want to see more of the man they call Caleb. Caleb Green. Otherwise, the 1, 2 and 4 seeds go through. Georgetown, having only to defeat a suddenly scaring Oral Roberts, roll into the finals and defeat Texas to make it to the Final Four.
South - Texas A&M seems to be a favourite "darkhorse" pick. It's a wise move, to a point. Too many people believe the hype. My picks: Upsets - Long Beach State and Albany will surprise in the First Round which sets them against each other in the who cares match up to get to the Round of 16 whom I have as LB State, #1 Ohio State, #2 Memphis and #3 Texas A&M. Advantage here goes to Memphis. Why? You don't hear much about them but they were 16-0 in the mighty Conference USA. Louisville is everyone's favourite here if not the Aggies with their senior point guard All American blahblahblah. Go for Memphis. Good music, good BBQ sauce. That's all that matters in the picking. Not the fact that by wins, their coach John Calipari has the sixth-best career start in NCAA history through 14 years with his sparkling 337-129 record (.723). Through 14 collegiate seasons, only North Carolina coach Roy Williams, Louisville Hall of Fame coach Denny Crum, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, Kentucky's Tubby Smith and Arkansas' Nolan Richardson have won more games than Calipari. Put think about the music and the food. Who would you rather root for?
West - First thing I'll admit is that Duke is in this bracket and I, like millions around the globe, hate Duke with a passion that borders on pathological or insane. I don't ever want to be in the position of having to root for them just to have my bracket work so I will note straight away that I will pick VCU in the first round to upset them. I'm not even sure what VCU stands for, Viet Cong Uni? Aha, send those emails of hatred, little Rams supporters. Virginia Commonwealth indeed. Is it common wealth or wealth which is parsed to a small percentage? In any event, let's keep focused. Send those Dukies home crying in their dirty socks and wiping their arses with their dainty Ivy-in-the-south hands.
A little sidetracked there because there are, after all, 14 other teams in this group. In the realm of upsets I shall recommend to you Gonzaga, Illinois and Villanova doing better than their seeds would allow. It's tempting to seek another first round knock out of Kansas, this time at the hands of the unheralded Niagra, but not likely. Do Gonzaga surprise every year? It seems so. To the point where you wouldn't think it would be a surprise or an upset any more. But I think UCLA get past them. Eric Maynor will lead VCU past Pitt and suddenly you'll find a quasi-predictable Kansas-UCLA regional final. Pick: UCLA.
Midwest - Florida have the chance to repeat their championship from last year's bracket AND lump this with their NCAA football title. No bloody Uni is that good mates so forget about them winning it all this year. I don't have many(any) upsets in this group. Why? Because it's the Midwest and everyone knows how boring the Midwest is. Just shove a few brats in their gobs and let them vote for whatever muppet Republican candidate frightens them the most with speeches about gays taking over the corn crops and there you have it. I've got the 1, 2, 5 and 6 seeds advancing and guess what kids, just because of Richie Cunningham, I'm going with Wisconsin to the Final Four!
So, to summarise the Final Four will comprise of:
Wisconsin v UCLA
Georgetown v Memphis
The Final will see Memphis v Wisconsin and the Badgers are destined to win it all because in some circles it is indeed the Year of the Badger!
(Besides, someone has to make up for Ohio State's humiliating show in the NCAA Football Championship.
Go Badgers, Go!
Unload all the metaphors! Let loose the flying, unsubstantiated hysteria of hope and unpredictability! The NCAA tournament, the only blip in the amateur or professional basketball season worth noticing is finally here!
And just on time - how apropos that the NCAA tournament and the accompanying, dizzying array of possibilities swing around the corner at the same time the baseball season has just begun and similarly delusional dreams of people and teams destined for disappointment are simultaneously unwrapping the letterbomb of expectation not knowing if it will fizzle or explode.
But over here, in merry ole' there is no such obsession. On this side of the pond brackets are not being mass produced and hours of valuable productivity are not idled away dreaming up a multitude of possible scenarios, goats, unsung heroes and surprises. No, we are still here listening to politically expedient bravado about cutting emissions by 60%,
Well, the good news is, Sports Amnesia have sorted it all out for you.
That's right. We've combed through all the teams painstakingly just so you over in America can fill out your pools with confidence. We've looked at the trends, examined the rosters and coaches, reviewed seasons and games, watched hours and hours and hours of videotape and news broadcasts and stared vacantly at walls for days in an effort to conjure the answers to the eternal question: Who Will Be In The Final Four?!
Well, not exactly. In truth we've relied upon the science of not knowing for as everyone knows the office pool usually comes down to some twat who is actually somewhat of an inside gambling expert and some fat housewife who has never watched a basketball game in her life, closed her eyes and picked or based her picks on whether or not she liked the team nickname. So hours of planning is pointless save for the fun of it.
Here's how the regions quickly breakdowns as winners:
East - Ignorance is bliss. The one thing I knew before the brackets were announced was forget about the 16th seed. What you can know is that this is a strong group led by top seeds North Carolina and Georgetown. North Carolina would have to beat anyone from New Mexico State to a surprise Texas team to make it to the finals of the group. Georgetown on the other hand, have a relatively simple path Vanderbilt and Texas Tech. Forget about Boston College. My picks: Upsets -I've only got one and that is Oral Roberts making it to the Round of 16. Why? Because I want to see more of the man they call Caleb. Caleb Green. Otherwise, the 1, 2 and 4 seeds go through. Georgetown, having only to defeat a suddenly scaring Oral Roberts, roll into the finals and defeat Texas to make it to the Final Four.
South - Texas A&M seems to be a favourite "darkhorse" pick. It's a wise move, to a point. Too many people believe the hype. My picks: Upsets - Long Beach State and Albany will surprise in the First Round which sets them against each other in the who cares match up to get to the Round of 16 whom I have as LB State, #1 Ohio State, #2 Memphis and #3 Texas A&M. Advantage here goes to Memphis. Why? You don't hear much about them but they were 16-0 in the mighty Conference USA. Louisville is everyone's favourite here if not the Aggies with their senior point guard All American blahblahblah. Go for Memphis. Good music, good BBQ sauce. That's all that matters in the picking. Not the fact that by wins, their coach John Calipari has the sixth-best career start in NCAA history through 14 years with his sparkling 337-129 record (.723). Through 14 collegiate seasons, only North Carolina coach Roy Williams, Louisville Hall of Fame coach Denny Crum, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, Kentucky's Tubby Smith and Arkansas' Nolan Richardson have won more games than Calipari. Put think about the music and the food. Who would you rather root for?
West - First thing I'll admit is that Duke is in this bracket and I, like millions around the globe, hate Duke with a passion that borders on pathological or insane. I don't ever want to be in the position of having to root for them just to have my bracket work so I will note straight away that I will pick VCU in the first round to upset them. I'm not even sure what VCU stands for, Viet Cong Uni? Aha, send those emails of hatred, little Rams supporters. Virginia Commonwealth indeed. Is it common wealth or wealth which is parsed to a small percentage? In any event, let's keep focused. Send those Dukies home crying in their dirty socks and wiping their arses with their dainty Ivy-in-the-south hands.
A little sidetracked there because there are, after all, 14 other teams in this group. In the realm of upsets I shall recommend to you Gonzaga, Illinois and Villanova doing better than their seeds would allow. It's tempting to seek another first round knock out of Kansas, this time at the hands of the unheralded Niagra, but not likely. Do Gonzaga surprise every year? It seems so. To the point where you wouldn't think it would be a surprise or an upset any more. But I think UCLA get past them. Eric Maynor will lead VCU past Pitt and suddenly you'll find a quasi-predictable Kansas-UCLA regional final. Pick: UCLA.
Midwest - Florida have the chance to repeat their championship from last year's bracket AND lump this with their NCAA football title. No bloody Uni is that good mates so forget about them winning it all this year. I don't have many(any) upsets in this group. Why? Because it's the Midwest and everyone knows how boring the Midwest is. Just shove a few brats in their gobs and let them vote for whatever muppet Republican candidate frightens them the most with speeches about gays taking over the corn crops and there you have it. I've got the 1, 2, 5 and 6 seeds advancing and guess what kids, just because of Richie Cunningham, I'm going with Wisconsin to the Final Four!
So, to summarise the Final Four will comprise of:
Wisconsin v UCLA
Georgetown v Memphis
The Final will see Memphis v Wisconsin and the Badgers are destined to win it all because in some circles it is indeed the Year of the Badger!
(Besides, someone has to make up for Ohio State's humiliating show in the NCAA Football Championship.
Go Badgers, Go!
Saturday, February 03, 2007
WORLD WIDE SUPER BOWL
"People can have the Model T in any colour--so long as it's black."
-- Henry Ford
Following Championship Sunday's shamelessly inaccurate 0-2 showing wherein Sports Amnesia predicted exactly wrong, a Patriots-Saints Super Bowl instead of this immensely unexciting Battle of the All Black Head Coaches Midwest Bowl one might expect a moratorium on NFL predictions for the rest of the season.
The Battle of the All Black Head Coaches Midwest Bowl is of course a dysphamism for explaining why the dismantling of the Old Boys Nework has taken the NFL so long to accomplish (whilst between the lines they can ignore the white GMs, white owners, white television network executives) and we can all imagine a day not far from now when they'll be writing with equal self-congratulatory fascination about the first Super Bowl with both head coaches AND both quarterbacks being black, or the first Super Bowl with a Mexican QB or the first Super Bowl with Chinese wideouts, Iraqi placekickers and North Korean halfbacks. Meanwhile, it's been 19 years since Doug Williams drew fascination for being the first black QB to start and win a Super Bowl and 38 years since Marlon Briscoe became the first black starting quarterback in the NFL, ever.
The NFL is becoming more international and thus, more colourful, it's true. The Super Bowl, we are told, will be aired in 232 countries and territories by 54 international broadcasters in 33 languages.
Last year's game (Pittsburgh Steelers-Seattle Seahawks) was watched by 98 million viewers, 90.7 million of whom were in the United States. On the other hand, the World Cup football final, the mother of all international sporting events, drew 260 million viewers. Of course, the World Cup final's headlines aren't written by American media doyens eager to congratulate themselves on their enlightened approach to minorities in sport and of course, there isn't a long and boring two week delay between the semi finals and the final which force such unfettered headline hunts to accumulate. So perhaps the hyperbolic back patting on having two black head coaches in the Super Bowl at the same time is to be expected.
The other storyline is of course this semi-prodded great defence versus great QB debate - getting less airplay is what it means to have one of the worst defences and worst QBs.
Whilst the Bears defence is not only good this season but historically form in part anyway, the intimidating Monsters of the Midway label and have that awesome Defence of the 1985/86 season to their credit, the Colts defence is a bit ghastly by comparison despite the fact that their black head coach is considered a defensive rather than offensive mind. Only three Super Bowl champions allowed more than 300 points: the 1980 Raiders (306), the 1983 Raiders (338) and 1998 Broncos (309). These Colts have allowed a staggering 360. The Colts ranked last in the NFL against the run with the fourth-worst run defense in history, allowing an average of 173 yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush. The worst run defense to win a Super Bowl was the 2001 New England Patriots, who ranked 19th with an average yield of 115 yards per game.
As for the QBs well, there hasn't often been as big a mismatch - on the one hand the fabled Peyton Manning who, if he wins this Super Bowl might instantly elevate himself into the pantheon of All Time Greats and is already a near certain Hall of Fame candidate. On the other hand, the Bears are led by the oft-maligned and tragically inconsistent Rex Grossman.
Where are the headlines for this being the first Super Bowl with a QB named Rex?
Rex, after all, is Latin for "king". Peyton is ostensibly named after a 1960s soap opera called Peyton Place.
But these aren't the only issues that might allow us to unravel the mystery of the next Super Bowl Champ a day early.
We could also examine certain things which will not come into play but certain sway Sports Amnesia's thinking.
Once, Everbody's Did The Macarena Too, That Didn't Make It Right...
1. The Everyone Else Is Doing It Factor - You can count on one hand the number of non-Chicagoans who think the Bears can beat the Colts. The Colts are established as a seven point favourite going into this game. The celebrities are going with the Colts. Most of the SI football experts, all of whom have a better record than Sports Amnesia at this sort of thing, are going with the Colts. No, I take that back Every Single Expert Is Picking The Colts. That leaves us in the difficult situation on jumping on this hideous Colts bandwagon or rooting against what appears to be common logic. Advantage: Bears.
2. Domed Midwest Football Stadium Factor - The Bears won their NFC Championship game in the cold and with a few snow flurries. The Colts won their AFC Championship game in a climate-controlled dome. As these are both Midwest teams having faced similar outdoor conditions in their respective cities, the fact that one of them plays their games indoors means that the Colts are not immune to climatic factors, like global warming. Sure, you say there is no way to measure toughness of a domed team versus that of a team that plays in the bitter cold but the St Louis Rams of the 2000 Super Bowl were the only home dome team to win a Super Bowl. That doesn't mean there can't be a second one but it means, with the Colts' undefeated record in their cosy little dome, that the slightest bit of inclimate conditions might throw off this delicate little Peyton Passing Machine. It means Da Bears are reall men who play the game outdoors, not inside a computer or inside a dome. Advantage: Bears.
3. Moving Franchise Factor. A quick refresher - the Browns were moved to Baltimore from Cleveland and renamed themselves the Ravens, who did in fact win a Super Bowl against an historical NFL franchise (the NY Giants). The Rams moved from LA to St Louis and won a Super Bowl against another team (the Tennessee Titans) who moved franchise (from Houston to Nashville) but those same Rams who moved from LA to St Louis also lost a Super Bowl against an historical AFC franchise (the Patriots, who "sorta" moved from Boston to "New England".) What it means is that if you've moved your franchise from one city to another as did the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis you've got a good chance of winning. However, of teams to have moved from one city to another and won the Super Bowl, NONE of them had won the Super Bowl with the previous city's franchise, i.e. the Browns never made it to the Super Bowl before they became the Ravens, ditto the Rams of LA, the Titans (néé the Oilers of Houston). The Colts won the Super Bowl in 1971 when they were in Baltimore. Advantage: Bears.
3. Peyton's Pressure Factor - Just a few weeks ago Peyton Manning was more known for his inability to win the big one than the collective of brand names he markets. The Bill Belichick and Tom Brady monkees are off his back. Sure, he still hasn't won a Super Bowl but at least he's beaten his nemesis, the Patriots. Historically, overcoming this type of adversity leads to Super Bowl victories, i.e, the Raiders finally overcoming the Steelers in the 70s, the 49ers finally overcoming the Cowboys in the 90s, the Giants overcoming the 49ers, etc. Of course, the Iggles lost three NFC Championship games in a row before making it to the Super Bowl they lost in 2004-05, the Cowboys lost three NFC Championship Games in a row from 1980-83 and didn't make the Super Bowl again until 1992-93 and the Bills, well they LOST FOUR CONSECUTIVE SUPER BOWLS. What it means generally is, if you throw a monkey off your back, you win it all. Advantage: Colts.
4. Coin Toss Factor - I dunno what this means but if you look at the history of the coin toss in the Super Bowl you will see that the last time a team called heads, won the toss AND the game was back in Super Bowl XXVI when the Redskins did it when they beat the Dolphins in a come-from-behind victory. The Colts get to call the toss in this one which means they'd either better call tails or they'd better call heads and lose. Of the last five Super Bowls, the team getting to make the call lost four of them. Advantage: Bears.
5. Rex Grossman Chipped Shoulder Factor - Probably with good reason considering his season to date, Rex Grossman has been ridiculed and humiliated for the last two weeks whenever he, rather than Peyton has been the focus of the media's attention. Admittedly, this factor is related to the everybody favours the Colts factor noted above. You just get the feeling that a team can stand hearing how much they suck only so much before exploding. Rex Grossman will confuse no one with being a Hall of Fame QB unlike his counterpart. This reminds Phil Simms of the abuse he took back in Super Bowl XXI when the Giants faced the Broncos and their Hall of Fame QB, John Elway. Advantage: Bears.
What this is all building to, you guessed it, is Sports Amnesia putting itself on the line once more going against public opinion, common wisdom, logic and probability.
The Pick:
Chicago Bears 30 Indiapolis Colts 27.
"People can have the Model T in any colour--so long as it's black."
-- Henry Ford
Following Championship Sunday's shamelessly inaccurate 0-2 showing wherein Sports Amnesia predicted exactly wrong, a Patriots-Saints Super Bowl instead of this immensely unexciting Battle of the All Black Head Coaches Midwest Bowl one might expect a moratorium on NFL predictions for the rest of the season.
The Battle of the All Black Head Coaches Midwest Bowl is of course a dysphamism for explaining why the dismantling of the Old Boys Nework has taken the NFL so long to accomplish (whilst between the lines they can ignore the white GMs, white owners, white television network executives) and we can all imagine a day not far from now when they'll be writing with equal self-congratulatory fascination about the first Super Bowl with both head coaches AND both quarterbacks being black, or the first Super Bowl with a Mexican QB or the first Super Bowl with Chinese wideouts, Iraqi placekickers and North Korean halfbacks. Meanwhile, it's been 19 years since Doug Williams drew fascination for being the first black QB to start and win a Super Bowl and 38 years since Marlon Briscoe became the first black starting quarterback in the NFL, ever.
The NFL is becoming more international and thus, more colourful, it's true. The Super Bowl, we are told, will be aired in 232 countries and territories by 54 international broadcasters in 33 languages.
Last year's game (Pittsburgh Steelers-Seattle Seahawks) was watched by 98 million viewers, 90.7 million of whom were in the United States. On the other hand, the World Cup football final, the mother of all international sporting events, drew 260 million viewers. Of course, the World Cup final's headlines aren't written by American media doyens eager to congratulate themselves on their enlightened approach to minorities in sport and of course, there isn't a long and boring two week delay between the semi finals and the final which force such unfettered headline hunts to accumulate. So perhaps the hyperbolic back patting on having two black head coaches in the Super Bowl at the same time is to be expected.
The other storyline is of course this semi-prodded great defence versus great QB debate - getting less airplay is what it means to have one of the worst defences and worst QBs.
Whilst the Bears defence is not only good this season but historically form in part anyway, the intimidating Monsters of the Midway label and have that awesome Defence of the 1985/86 season to their credit, the Colts defence is a bit ghastly by comparison despite the fact that their black head coach is considered a defensive rather than offensive mind. Only three Super Bowl champions allowed more than 300 points: the 1980 Raiders (306), the 1983 Raiders (338) and 1998 Broncos (309). These Colts have allowed a staggering 360. The Colts ranked last in the NFL against the run with the fourth-worst run defense in history, allowing an average of 173 yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush. The worst run defense to win a Super Bowl was the 2001 New England Patriots, who ranked 19th with an average yield of 115 yards per game.
As for the QBs well, there hasn't often been as big a mismatch - on the one hand the fabled Peyton Manning who, if he wins this Super Bowl might instantly elevate himself into the pantheon of All Time Greats and is already a near certain Hall of Fame candidate. On the other hand, the Bears are led by the oft-maligned and tragically inconsistent Rex Grossman.
Where are the headlines for this being the first Super Bowl with a QB named Rex?
Rex, after all, is Latin for "king". Peyton is ostensibly named after a 1960s soap opera called Peyton Place.
But these aren't the only issues that might allow us to unravel the mystery of the next Super Bowl Champ a day early.
We could also examine certain things which will not come into play but certain sway Sports Amnesia's thinking.
Once, Everbody's Did The Macarena Too, That Didn't Make It Right...
1. The Everyone Else Is Doing It Factor - You can count on one hand the number of non-Chicagoans who think the Bears can beat the Colts. The Colts are established as a seven point favourite going into this game. The celebrities are going with the Colts. Most of the SI football experts, all of whom have a better record than Sports Amnesia at this sort of thing, are going with the Colts. No, I take that back Every Single Expert Is Picking The Colts. That leaves us in the difficult situation on jumping on this hideous Colts bandwagon or rooting against what appears to be common logic. Advantage: Bears.
2. Domed Midwest Football Stadium Factor - The Bears won their NFC Championship game in the cold and with a few snow flurries. The Colts won their AFC Championship game in a climate-controlled dome. As these are both Midwest teams having faced similar outdoor conditions in their respective cities, the fact that one of them plays their games indoors means that the Colts are not immune to climatic factors, like global warming. Sure, you say there is no way to measure toughness of a domed team versus that of a team that plays in the bitter cold but the St Louis Rams of the 2000 Super Bowl were the only home dome team to win a Super Bowl. That doesn't mean there can't be a second one but it means, with the Colts' undefeated record in their cosy little dome, that the slightest bit of inclimate conditions might throw off this delicate little Peyton Passing Machine. It means Da Bears are reall men who play the game outdoors, not inside a computer or inside a dome. Advantage: Bears.
3. Moving Franchise Factor. A quick refresher - the Browns were moved to Baltimore from Cleveland and renamed themselves the Ravens, who did in fact win a Super Bowl against an historical NFL franchise (the NY Giants). The Rams moved from LA to St Louis and won a Super Bowl against another team (the Tennessee Titans) who moved franchise (from Houston to Nashville) but those same Rams who moved from LA to St Louis also lost a Super Bowl against an historical AFC franchise (the Patriots, who "sorta" moved from Boston to "New England".) What it means is that if you've moved your franchise from one city to another as did the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis you've got a good chance of winning. However, of teams to have moved from one city to another and won the Super Bowl, NONE of them had won the Super Bowl with the previous city's franchise, i.e. the Browns never made it to the Super Bowl before they became the Ravens, ditto the Rams of LA, the Titans (néé the Oilers of Houston). The Colts won the Super Bowl in 1971 when they were in Baltimore. Advantage: Bears.
3. Peyton's Pressure Factor - Just a few weeks ago Peyton Manning was more known for his inability to win the big one than the collective of brand names he markets. The Bill Belichick and Tom Brady monkees are off his back. Sure, he still hasn't won a Super Bowl but at least he's beaten his nemesis, the Patriots. Historically, overcoming this type of adversity leads to Super Bowl victories, i.e, the Raiders finally overcoming the Steelers in the 70s, the 49ers finally overcoming the Cowboys in the 90s, the Giants overcoming the 49ers, etc. Of course, the Iggles lost three NFC Championship games in a row before making it to the Super Bowl they lost in 2004-05, the Cowboys lost three NFC Championship Games in a row from 1980-83 and didn't make the Super Bowl again until 1992-93 and the Bills, well they LOST FOUR CONSECUTIVE SUPER BOWLS. What it means generally is, if you throw a monkey off your back, you win it all. Advantage: Colts.
4. Coin Toss Factor - I dunno what this means but if you look at the history of the coin toss in the Super Bowl you will see that the last time a team called heads, won the toss AND the game was back in Super Bowl XXVI when the Redskins did it when they beat the Dolphins in a come-from-behind victory. The Colts get to call the toss in this one which means they'd either better call tails or they'd better call heads and lose. Of the last five Super Bowls, the team getting to make the call lost four of them. Advantage: Bears.
5. Rex Grossman Chipped Shoulder Factor - Probably with good reason considering his season to date, Rex Grossman has been ridiculed and humiliated for the last two weeks whenever he, rather than Peyton has been the focus of the media's attention. Admittedly, this factor is related to the everybody favours the Colts factor noted above. You just get the feeling that a team can stand hearing how much they suck only so much before exploding. Rex Grossman will confuse no one with being a Hall of Fame QB unlike his counterpart. This reminds Phil Simms of the abuse he took back in Super Bowl XXI when the Giants faced the Broncos and their Hall of Fame QB, John Elway. Advantage: Bears.
What this is all building to, you guessed it, is Sports Amnesia putting itself on the line once more going against public opinion, common wisdom, logic and probability.
The Pick:
Chicago Bears 30 Indiapolis Colts 27.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
"I wanna hang a map of the world in my house. Then I'm gonna put pins into all the locations that I've traveled to. But first, I'm gonna have to travel to the top two corners of the map so it won't fall down."
--Mitch Hedberg
With four teams left there are 4 potential Super Bowl match ups:
1. New England v Chicago (rematch of Super Bowl XX, the 46-10 pasting...)
2. New England v New Orleans (battle of the "New", a fitting matchup for postmodern times...)
3. Indianapolis v Chicago (Battle of the Midwest, ho hum...)
4. Indianapolis v New Orleans (Peyton redemption story against Katrina redemption story, ho hum...)
Of them all, which is most appealing? None of them, really. There are massively boring storylines for all of them, save for the Bears who appear to have no story line at all and in any event, at the end of the two week Super Hype we would be sick to death of ever hearing them mentioned again, regardless of the match up.
It's a dilemma, quite frankly for a person who is bored with the consistent consistency of the Patriots who have already won their fair share of Super Bowls and bored with the idea of Peyton Manning no longer being the Elwayesque whipping boy. Hard to be excited about either in the AFC. I'd have preferred watching the Über Team of the season, the Chargers, storming their way to the title disrupting the story lines of parity but they had their chances and they blew it. So this is what we're left with - the lousy leftovers.
For that matter, the Bears with their historically subpar QB and daunting defence are hardly candidates for excitement, not like those Bears of 85. And christ, haven't we had enough of the Saints and Katrina and suffering shoved down our gobs all season already?
The question is really who is least repulsive, which match up would provide the most entertainment for this mind numbing two week interlude between this Sunday and Stupor Sunday?
It doesn't matter much, not yet anyway. Whilst one may dread that fortnight in between and the even duller time between the end of the Super Bowl and the onset of pitchers and catchers reporting, there are two more games to be played this Sunday before then.
For reference, over the past 10 years, the home team is 6-4 in the NFC Championship Game, while the AFC home team is 4-6.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Saints At Bears
NFC best offence versus NFC best defence. Best against best has happened 10 times previously and the top offense has defeated the top defense seven times.
And let's face another disturbing fact. Chicago has a long and lengthy history of disappointing their fans. Sure, there was Michael Jordan. Sure, there were the 1985 Bears which crazy people around the country had the unmitigated gall to compare this meaker, lesser version to at various points during the season. And sure, the White Sox shocked everybody and won the World Series a couple of years ago. But pile that up against the accumulation of crappy Bears teams, disappointing Cubbies teams, virtually non-existent White Sox teams and basically every Bulls team before and after Michael Jordan and what you have is a compelling history of failure and disappointment, a compendium, if you like, of mediocrity. So the Bears have that going against them.
Going for them is the seemingly rabid desire of almost every football fan outside of Chicago to see Rex Grossman fail and fail miserably so everyone (including thousands inside of the Chicago Metropolitan area) can leap off of their sofas at the appropriate time pointing their Dorito dust and salsa-stained fingers at their plasma screens and screaming I Told You So! I Told You So! a thousand times until their voices go hoarse. There hasn't been such a collection of people waiting for a QB to fail since Peyton Manning's last playoff game. (well, that wasn't so long ago but this is after all, a fickle sport of parity and certain things simply have to remain consistent for there to be any cohesion at all to bind these stories together as one season as opposed to a series of weekly random events).
The unknown factor is The Conspiracy of New Orleans and for all those conspiracy theorists out there who think there was never a moon landing, that the American government assassinated Kennedy, that 9/11 was some twisted Zionist plot, the sudden rise of the Saints from the receding flood waters of Katrina must be a virtual buffet.
First of all, how to explain Drew Brees signing with the Saints instead of the more established and certainly more favoured Miami Dolphins? Did someone in the organisation pull Brees aside and show him the blueprint of how to save the NFL season by creating this post-Katrina melodrama? (Here's how it works, kid. You sign with the Saints, the Texans inexplicably draft some non entity defensive lineman instead of the Heisman Trophy winner with the number one pick leaving Reggie Bush to fall to the Saints, every team in their division with a reasonable chance of winning the division, i.e. the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Bucs suffer inexplicable and rapid downslides leaving the division up for grabs between yourselves and the Falcons, a team with a wishbone QB and a gaggle of oft-injured running backs, your third game of the season is a much ballyhoo'd MNF matchup wherein the entire nation of America has the unique opportunity of replacing their collective guilt for having left your city to drown on its own with nary a buoy to save it with some bizarre instant romance that's supposed to make it all better overnight and to give them a new hero (a struggling metropolis) to root for.)
I mean, c'mon. If the sudden, inexplicable rise of the Saints isn't a conspiracy, then Bill Cowher has no chin and last year's Super Bowl never happened. This is what the Bears are up against, The Man, the Feds, the Commish of Corporate Football and the hearts and minds of the American People. Is there a more daunting collection of opponents? And let's not even imagine what the refs are going to be doing for this game.
And let's think about the weather. Blustery SSE winds gust to 20-25 m.p.h. at times. Snow develops mid/late a.m.; Accumulation possible. Bears/Saints game wind chills: 10s. Football in Chicago, in January, just as you'd want it for your homefield advantage. Yet realistically can anyone imagine a team dislocated for a season by a devastating hurricane is going to concern itself about a few flurries and little bit of bitter cold? No chance, so the one thing the Bears might have had in their favour is gone.
In addition to the collective hatred of Rex Grossman the Bears appear to also have in their favour the slighted feeling of being ignored for the better part of the season - ever since the bandwagons turned off somewhere around the time of that pathetic downfall and rise against the Arizona Cardinals on MNF. America never forgave the Bears after that and so now the Bears play their one remaining card: respect. They feel slighted, they're angry and they crave respect. The Saints on the other hand, are just happy to be here.
Prediction: Saints 23 Bears 17
*****
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Patriots at Colts
If you could avoid the enormity of the Manning v Brady hype, you might call this the Adam Vinatieri Bowl.
The man who has converted several of the most pressurised field goals in NFL history, including game-winning kicks in the final five seconds of two Super Bowls, was let go by the Patriots and picked up by the Colts between last season and this one and now Adam Vinatieri finally has his chance for revenge, Hamlet and Claudius style.
In the interim we can talk about this being the first time an AFC title match will be played indoors which means of course, the Colts are not worthy of advancing. We could also talk about the Patriots being 5-0 in conference championship games since 1970.
But this would all be so much popcorn chewed during intermission because the real protagonist's revenge tragedy is of course, Peyton Manning: 5-6 in the playoffs all-time, 2-6 against Brady all-time, 0-2 against Brady in the playoffs. In other words, Tom Brady, 12-1 in the playoffs all-time, is everything Peyton Manning is not. Manning is Madam Bovary to Brady's Don Quixote.
The question is which impulse will dominate in the American collective psyche when watching this game? That of redemption, i.e. Manning finally rewarded for his long and painful journey through postseasons past with a victory or Manning reaffirmed as the NFL's whipping boy, the man we can always count on to fail when the zero hour of truth arrives?
Manning is a much larger version of the antipathy we hold for Rex Grossman, the schadenfreude we feel in seeing repeated failure, the justification of our loosely held beliefs in predictability coming to fruition. Whilst unlike Grossman we might not extract ourselves from the depths of our sofas to cheer his every failure, nonetheless it is indeed difficult to find oneself rooting for Peyton Manning with the NFL pedigree, the mediocre brother and the misfortune to play for a franchise located in Indianapolis.
As much as we might enjoy seeing Manning fail there will be the other side of bandwagoneers who want to see just once, the improbable triumph over parity. Week after week this season one team rises and then falls, another rises to take its place and then falls as well. The Saints, an historic NFL laughingstock makes it the NFC Championship and even Peyton Manning gets another shot but through it all, the New England Patriots, despite hemorrhaging players like a ruptured vessel, plod along with that predictable intangible overcoming the NFL's best efforts to usurp them.
Two postseasons ago Sports Amnesia made a living off getting it wrong, picking at every successive turn against the Patriots and never really learning the lesson that this is a not a team to bet against come playoff time.
But this time, rather than the simple reasoning of jumping a bandwagon, we will be rooting for the Patriots not because they will probably win but because to see Peyton Manning overcome his demons and give joy to a miserable place like Indianapolis with its crappy domed monstrosity of a football stadium is simply too disgusting to stomach.
I want to find joy in seeing Peyton fail, not just this season but the one after that and the one after that, much like John Elway did throughout his career before bursting forth in the twilight of his career for the much deserved redemption and quite frankly, Peyton simply hasn't suffered enough yet to have earned such rewards. There is a magical quality to Brady's ability to pull another out of the fire much like Joe Montana did in his own prime and last week's absurdist victory was not an example of good luck so much as smart football and exemplary coaching. And let's face it, Bill Belichick against Tony Dungy is something akin to Lombardi against Art Shell and for that reason, more than Vinatieri or Manning or even Brady, the Colts don't really have a prayer.
Prediction: Patriots 36 Colts 17
"I wanna hang a map of the world in my house. Then I'm gonna put pins into all the locations that I've traveled to. But first, I'm gonna have to travel to the top two corners of the map so it won't fall down."
--Mitch Hedberg
With four teams left there are 4 potential Super Bowl match ups:
1. New England v Chicago (rematch of Super Bowl XX, the 46-10 pasting...)
2. New England v New Orleans (battle of the "New", a fitting matchup for postmodern times...)
3. Indianapolis v Chicago (Battle of the Midwest, ho hum...)
4. Indianapolis v New Orleans (Peyton redemption story against Katrina redemption story, ho hum...)
Of them all, which is most appealing? None of them, really. There are massively boring storylines for all of them, save for the Bears who appear to have no story line at all and in any event, at the end of the two week Super Hype we would be sick to death of ever hearing them mentioned again, regardless of the match up.
It's a dilemma, quite frankly for a person who is bored with the consistent consistency of the Patriots who have already won their fair share of Super Bowls and bored with the idea of Peyton Manning no longer being the Elwayesque whipping boy. Hard to be excited about either in the AFC. I'd have preferred watching the Über Team of the season, the Chargers, storming their way to the title disrupting the story lines of parity but they had their chances and they blew it. So this is what we're left with - the lousy leftovers.
For that matter, the Bears with their historically subpar QB and daunting defence are hardly candidates for excitement, not like those Bears of 85. And christ, haven't we had enough of the Saints and Katrina and suffering shoved down our gobs all season already?
The question is really who is least repulsive, which match up would provide the most entertainment for this mind numbing two week interlude between this Sunday and Stupor Sunday?
It doesn't matter much, not yet anyway. Whilst one may dread that fortnight in between and the even duller time between the end of the Super Bowl and the onset of pitchers and catchers reporting, there are two more games to be played this Sunday before then.
For reference, over the past 10 years, the home team is 6-4 in the NFC Championship Game, while the AFC home team is 4-6.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Saints At Bears
NFC best offence versus NFC best defence. Best against best has happened 10 times previously and the top offense has defeated the top defense seven times.
And let's face another disturbing fact. Chicago has a long and lengthy history of disappointing their fans. Sure, there was Michael Jordan. Sure, there were the 1985 Bears which crazy people around the country had the unmitigated gall to compare this meaker, lesser version to at various points during the season. And sure, the White Sox shocked everybody and won the World Series a couple of years ago. But pile that up against the accumulation of crappy Bears teams, disappointing Cubbies teams, virtually non-existent White Sox teams and basically every Bulls team before and after Michael Jordan and what you have is a compelling history of failure and disappointment, a compendium, if you like, of mediocrity. So the Bears have that going against them.
Going for them is the seemingly rabid desire of almost every football fan outside of Chicago to see Rex Grossman fail and fail miserably so everyone (including thousands inside of the Chicago Metropolitan area) can leap off of their sofas at the appropriate time pointing their Dorito dust and salsa-stained fingers at their plasma screens and screaming I Told You So! I Told You So! a thousand times until their voices go hoarse. There hasn't been such a collection of people waiting for a QB to fail since Peyton Manning's last playoff game. (well, that wasn't so long ago but this is after all, a fickle sport of parity and certain things simply have to remain consistent for there to be any cohesion at all to bind these stories together as one season as opposed to a series of weekly random events).
The unknown factor is The Conspiracy of New Orleans and for all those conspiracy theorists out there who think there was never a moon landing, that the American government assassinated Kennedy, that 9/11 was some twisted Zionist plot, the sudden rise of the Saints from the receding flood waters of Katrina must be a virtual buffet.
First of all, how to explain Drew Brees signing with the Saints instead of the more established and certainly more favoured Miami Dolphins? Did someone in the organisation pull Brees aside and show him the blueprint of how to save the NFL season by creating this post-Katrina melodrama? (Here's how it works, kid. You sign with the Saints, the Texans inexplicably draft some non entity defensive lineman instead of the Heisman Trophy winner with the number one pick leaving Reggie Bush to fall to the Saints, every team in their division with a reasonable chance of winning the division, i.e. the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Bucs suffer inexplicable and rapid downslides leaving the division up for grabs between yourselves and the Falcons, a team with a wishbone QB and a gaggle of oft-injured running backs, your third game of the season is a much ballyhoo'd MNF matchup wherein the entire nation of America has the unique opportunity of replacing their collective guilt for having left your city to drown on its own with nary a buoy to save it with some bizarre instant romance that's supposed to make it all better overnight and to give them a new hero (a struggling metropolis) to root for.)
I mean, c'mon. If the sudden, inexplicable rise of the Saints isn't a conspiracy, then Bill Cowher has no chin and last year's Super Bowl never happened. This is what the Bears are up against, The Man, the Feds, the Commish of Corporate Football and the hearts and minds of the American People. Is there a more daunting collection of opponents? And let's not even imagine what the refs are going to be doing for this game.
And let's think about the weather. Blustery SSE winds gust to 20-25 m.p.h. at times. Snow develops mid/late a.m.; Accumulation possible. Bears/Saints game wind chills: 10s. Football in Chicago, in January, just as you'd want it for your homefield advantage. Yet realistically can anyone imagine a team dislocated for a season by a devastating hurricane is going to concern itself about a few flurries and little bit of bitter cold? No chance, so the one thing the Bears might have had in their favour is gone.
In addition to the collective hatred of Rex Grossman the Bears appear to also have in their favour the slighted feeling of being ignored for the better part of the season - ever since the bandwagons turned off somewhere around the time of that pathetic downfall and rise against the Arizona Cardinals on MNF. America never forgave the Bears after that and so now the Bears play their one remaining card: respect. They feel slighted, they're angry and they crave respect. The Saints on the other hand, are just happy to be here.
Prediction: Saints 23 Bears 17
*****
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Patriots at Colts
If you could avoid the enormity of the Manning v Brady hype, you might call this the Adam Vinatieri Bowl.
The man who has converted several of the most pressurised field goals in NFL history, including game-winning kicks in the final five seconds of two Super Bowls, was let go by the Patriots and picked up by the Colts between last season and this one and now Adam Vinatieri finally has his chance for revenge, Hamlet and Claudius style.
In the interim we can talk about this being the first time an AFC title match will be played indoors which means of course, the Colts are not worthy of advancing. We could also talk about the Patriots being 5-0 in conference championship games since 1970.
But this would all be so much popcorn chewed during intermission because the real protagonist's revenge tragedy is of course, Peyton Manning: 5-6 in the playoffs all-time, 2-6 against Brady all-time, 0-2 against Brady in the playoffs. In other words, Tom Brady, 12-1 in the playoffs all-time, is everything Peyton Manning is not. Manning is Madam Bovary to Brady's Don Quixote.
The question is which impulse will dominate in the American collective psyche when watching this game? That of redemption, i.e. Manning finally rewarded for his long and painful journey through postseasons past with a victory or Manning reaffirmed as the NFL's whipping boy, the man we can always count on to fail when the zero hour of truth arrives?
Manning is a much larger version of the antipathy we hold for Rex Grossman, the schadenfreude we feel in seeing repeated failure, the justification of our loosely held beliefs in predictability coming to fruition. Whilst unlike Grossman we might not extract ourselves from the depths of our sofas to cheer his every failure, nonetheless it is indeed difficult to find oneself rooting for Peyton Manning with the NFL pedigree, the mediocre brother and the misfortune to play for a franchise located in Indianapolis.
As much as we might enjoy seeing Manning fail there will be the other side of bandwagoneers who want to see just once, the improbable triumph over parity. Week after week this season one team rises and then falls, another rises to take its place and then falls as well. The Saints, an historic NFL laughingstock makes it the NFC Championship and even Peyton Manning gets another shot but through it all, the New England Patriots, despite hemorrhaging players like a ruptured vessel, plod along with that predictable intangible overcoming the NFL's best efforts to usurp them.
Two postseasons ago Sports Amnesia made a living off getting it wrong, picking at every successive turn against the Patriots and never really learning the lesson that this is a not a team to bet against come playoff time.
But this time, rather than the simple reasoning of jumping a bandwagon, we will be rooting for the Patriots not because they will probably win but because to see Peyton Manning overcome his demons and give joy to a miserable place like Indianapolis with its crappy domed monstrosity of a football stadium is simply too disgusting to stomach.
I want to find joy in seeing Peyton fail, not just this season but the one after that and the one after that, much like John Elway did throughout his career before bursting forth in the twilight of his career for the much deserved redemption and quite frankly, Peyton simply hasn't suffered enough yet to have earned such rewards. There is a magical quality to Brady's ability to pull another out of the fire much like Joe Montana did in his own prime and last week's absurdist victory was not an example of good luck so much as smart football and exemplary coaching. And let's face it, Bill Belichick against Tony Dungy is something akin to Lombardi against Art Shell and for that reason, more than Vinatieri or Manning or even Brady, the Colts don't really have a prayer.
Prediction: Patriots 36 Colts 17
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
So, my preseason Super Bowl picks have made it this far. The Colts easily beating the hilarious Chiefs and the Iggles narrowly knocking off the Jints means my crystal ball wasn't completely whacked. So there's my pat on the back and payslip because it does not look to Sports Amnesia like this run of good fortune is going to last another week.
Quick Facts About This Weekend
Both NFC games are rematches. Both AFC games feature teams that played each other last season.
Eyes on the fact that the home team is 214-96 in playoff games since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, a 69 percent clip.
And when they've had the week off prior to opening their playoffs at home, da Bears dropped a home playoff decision to the Carolina Panthers29-21 after a first-round bye.
Of the last 13 teams to earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs dating back to 1993, nine advanced to the Super Bowl. The Bears' last home postseason victory was a 16-6 triumph over New Orleans on Jan. 6, 1991. The Bears enter their 13th postseason since the merger with a 7-11 (.389) playoff record, including a 4-6 mark at home.
Eyes are on the chokers: Marty Schottenheimer and Peyton Manning.
BALTIMORE (-3½) vs. Indianapolis - Harken yea back to the year 2000 and find a very similar sort of team the Colts will face. Stifling defence, lots of turnovers and a dodgy QB. This season the defence is not quite as stifling, the QB not quite as dodgy. Colts 8-0 at home this season and on the road, well, stink city is usually where they're traveling to. The real significance to this game is that this is the first time the former Colts of Baltimore travel to Baltimore for a playoff game since the backstabbing spring of 1984 saw the Colts sneak out of Baltimore for Indianapolis. The Ravens gave up only 264 total yards per game. Pick: Baltimore 26 Indy 24
NEW ORLEANS (-4½) vs. Philadelphia (48½) - Raise your hand if you imagined New Orleans hosting a divisional playoff game this season. Who Dat? Thought so. America's most surprising team will be playing on alot of emotion. On Oct. 15 in New Orleans, the Saints drove 72 yards on 16 plays before John Carney kicked the winning field goal as time expired (27-24). In the last 5 years of NFL divisional playoff games - 20 games total, in both conferences - the home team (which sat out the previous week with a bye) was shut out eight times in the first quarter.Pick: Nawlins 33 Philly 26
CHICAGO (-8½) vs. Seattle - Everyone's favourite joke is the Chicago Bears' QB situation and Rex Grossman. This week's second favourite joke will be the 37-6 loss victory by the Bears over the Seahawks in Week 4. Pick: Chicago 49 Seattle 20
SAN DIEGO -4½ vs. New England - Not facing a significantly weaker Jets team at home is one factor. Marty Schottenheimer's oft-ridiculed post-season history (5-12 playoff record,) and conservatism against the proven history of Belichick's playoff genius postseason winning record of 12-2, the is another as the Chargers becomes everybody's favourite whipping boys and the Patriots over the top-ranked Chargers everyone's favourite upset. Undefeated home team against one of the NFL's best road teams (7-1) this season. The Chargers' QB, Philip Rivers, unlike the Manning they traded away to get him, is inexperienced in the post season, yes. This seems like a no-brainer on the surface, MartyBall should reign with NFL MVP LT getting the ball enough times to batter a Pats defence and whilst Tom Brady gets better the more important the game, last season proved he couldn't go undefeated the rest of his life in the post season (he's now 11-1). This might well be the game of the week. Bill Belichick last time these two teams met The Chargers broke the Patriots' 21-game home winning steak with a 41-17 victory, with Tomlinson rushing for 134 yards and two TDs.
Pick: Chargers 23 Patriots 17
So, my preseason Super Bowl picks have made it this far. The Colts easily beating the hilarious Chiefs and the Iggles narrowly knocking off the Jints means my crystal ball wasn't completely whacked. So there's my pat on the back and payslip because it does not look to Sports Amnesia like this run of good fortune is going to last another week.
Quick Facts About This Weekend
Both NFC games are rematches. Both AFC games feature teams that played each other last season.
Eyes on the fact that the home team is 214-96 in playoff games since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, a 69 percent clip.
And when they've had the week off prior to opening their playoffs at home, da Bears dropped a home playoff decision to the Carolina Panthers29-21 after a first-round bye.
Of the last 13 teams to earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs dating back to 1993, nine advanced to the Super Bowl. The Bears' last home postseason victory was a 16-6 triumph over New Orleans on Jan. 6, 1991. The Bears enter their 13th postseason since the merger with a 7-11 (.389) playoff record, including a 4-6 mark at home.
Eyes are on the chokers: Marty Schottenheimer and Peyton Manning.
BALTIMORE (-3½) vs. Indianapolis - Harken yea back to the year 2000 and find a very similar sort of team the Colts will face. Stifling defence, lots of turnovers and a dodgy QB. This season the defence is not quite as stifling, the QB not quite as dodgy. Colts 8-0 at home this season and on the road, well, stink city is usually where they're traveling to. The real significance to this game is that this is the first time the former Colts of Baltimore travel to Baltimore for a playoff game since the backstabbing spring of 1984 saw the Colts sneak out of Baltimore for Indianapolis. The Ravens gave up only 264 total yards per game. Pick: Baltimore 26 Indy 24
NEW ORLEANS (-4½) vs. Philadelphia (48½) - Raise your hand if you imagined New Orleans hosting a divisional playoff game this season. Who Dat? Thought so. America's most surprising team will be playing on alot of emotion. On Oct. 15 in New Orleans, the Saints drove 72 yards on 16 plays before John Carney kicked the winning field goal as time expired (27-24). In the last 5 years of NFL divisional playoff games - 20 games total, in both conferences - the home team (which sat out the previous week with a bye) was shut out eight times in the first quarter.Pick: Nawlins 33 Philly 26
CHICAGO (-8½) vs. Seattle - Everyone's favourite joke is the Chicago Bears' QB situation and Rex Grossman. This week's second favourite joke will be the 37-6 loss victory by the Bears over the Seahawks in Week 4. Pick: Chicago 49 Seattle 20
SAN DIEGO -4½ vs. New England - Not facing a significantly weaker Jets team at home is one factor. Marty Schottenheimer's oft-ridiculed post-season history (5-12 playoff record,) and conservatism against the proven history of Belichick's playoff genius postseason winning record of 12-2, the is another as the Chargers becomes everybody's favourite whipping boys and the Patriots over the top-ranked Chargers everyone's favourite upset. Undefeated home team against one of the NFL's best road teams (7-1) this season. The Chargers' QB, Philip Rivers, unlike the Manning they traded away to get him, is inexperienced in the post season, yes. This seems like a no-brainer on the surface, MartyBall should reign with NFL MVP LT getting the ball enough times to batter a Pats defence and whilst Tom Brady gets better the more important the game, last season proved he couldn't go undefeated the rest of his life in the post season (he's now 11-1). This might well be the game of the week. Bill Belichick last time these two teams met The Chargers broke the Patriots' 21-game home winning steak with a 41-17 victory, with Tomlinson rushing for 134 yards and two TDs.
Pick: Chargers 23 Patriots 17
Sunday, January 07, 2007
Top Three Shocking Things About The Wildcard Weekend
Yes, but who wins the award for the lightest skin?
Everything went pretty much as planned this weekend. All four favoured home teams won their games. No road victories, no upsets. Don't expect next week's games to go as smoothly and as according to plan.
1. Tony Romo Butterfingers: So, the man who was one of the big reasons the Cowboys were even in the playoffs to begin with becomes one of the main reasons the Cowboys are now out of them. Ironic, isn't it? Almost as ironic as Mr Selfish and fellow butterfinger, T.O. being one of the first guys to console Romo after it all went sour.
2. David Akers Boots Winning Field Goal With No Time Left: As shocking as the Cowboys (or, more precisely, Tony Romo) muffing what should have been a simple game-tying field goal, the fact that the Iggles overcame an Eli Manning-led drive (shocking in and of itself, completing 6 of 7 for 66 yards including the game-tying touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress) to win the game on a last-second field goal. The Eagles finished the season with a five-game winning streak, their longest season-ending streak since 1949 when they defeated the Los Angeles Rams 14-0 for the NFL Championship and their consolation prize is a trip to
3. Colts have a run defence?: It was interesting to watch so many try and predict the obvious - Larry Johnson running rampant over a weak Colt run defence - whilst simultaneously forgetting that all season long, just when you thought a trend had been spotted as quickly as it appeared to appear it disappeared. That's why it was easy knowing Larry Johnson was going to have a very quiet weekend. 32 yards on 13 carries. That and the fact he is coached by Herm Edwards.
Yes, but who wins the award for the lightest skin?
Everything went pretty much as planned this weekend. All four favoured home teams won their games. No road victories, no upsets. Don't expect next week's games to go as smoothly and as according to plan.
1. Tony Romo Butterfingers: So, the man who was one of the big reasons the Cowboys were even in the playoffs to begin with becomes one of the main reasons the Cowboys are now out of them. Ironic, isn't it? Almost as ironic as Mr Selfish and fellow butterfinger, T.O. being one of the first guys to console Romo after it all went sour.
2. David Akers Boots Winning Field Goal With No Time Left: As shocking as the Cowboys (or, more precisely, Tony Romo) muffing what should have been a simple game-tying field goal, the fact that the Iggles overcame an Eli Manning-led drive (shocking in and of itself, completing 6 of 7 for 66 yards including the game-tying touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress) to win the game on a last-second field goal. The Eagles finished the season with a five-game winning streak, their longest season-ending streak since 1949 when they defeated the Los Angeles Rams 14-0 for the NFL Championship and their consolation prize is a trip to
3. Colts have a run defence?: It was interesting to watch so many try and predict the obvious - Larry Johnson running rampant over a weak Colt run defence - whilst simultaneously forgetting that all season long, just when you thought a trend had been spotted as quickly as it appeared to appear it disappeared. That's why it was easy knowing Larry Johnson was going to have a very quiet weekend. 32 yards on 13 carries. That and the fact he is coached by Herm Edwards.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
WILD CARD WEEKEND
Every year it's the same auld story. You go into a season making ridiculous picks for the Super Bowl and invariably, one or both picks struggle and/or don't even make the playoffs. This season Sports Amnesia had a Super Bowl matching the Indianapolis Colts against the Philadelphia Iggles and although both teams won their respective divisions, neither did in convincing enough fashion to merit a first round bye. Thus, both are forced to face Wild Card teams they could be upset by, an extree game no one really wanted, save for the wild card team of course, and a headache waiting to happen.
It's important to note that both the Iggles and the Colts could well make their unexpected runs onward to the Super Bowl. The Iggles have the suddenly infallable Jeff Garcia as their replacement QB and momentum, a valuable commodity going into the postseason. The Colts finally enter a postseason with zero expectation which might, considering their flailing amid high expectation, do them an unexpected bit of good.
It's also important to note that the two highest seeded teams, the Chargers and Bears are unlikely to find themselves facing each other in the Super Bowl. In fact, most are already calling the Chargers - Ravens potential AFC Title Game the real Super Bowl given the laughingstocks the NFC submissions to the postseason have become. The Chargers have the momentum of a long winning streak and a seemingly unstoppable team. We only have to look at the Colts of the last several years to know what that means as in sweet F.A. When was the last time you can recall a team being unstoppable all the way through to the Super Bowl? I thought so. Now imagine Marty Schottenheimer's historical postseason conservatism failures and humiliations and you can imagine where things might have a tendancy to go wrong. Of course, simply because everyone is thinking that already, well, perhaps that is reason enough that Schott won't, like the Colts, seize up in a gasping self-choke hold.
The Saints of course, are not only everyone's favourites but when you're looking at this seriously from the perspective of karma, performance, lack of pressure, lack of expectation, etc., there doesn't seem to be much in their way representing as they do the notoriously weak and laughable NFC bid for the Stupor Bowl. In fact, a Saints-Chargers matchup in the finale something very few would complain about and simply because it's probably the most appealing matchup, it's not likely to happen. The Saints are too inexperienced, too happy to be here sort of giddiness to match up with the gob-smacking reality of postseason football when every team that wants it, steps it up a notch, grinds it out, plays intimidating defence, (insert your own cliché here)
The Bears of course aren't going anywhere with Rex Grossman at QB. That's what their saying anyway. That's what they were saying in the preseason until he got them off to that rousing start that sort of fizzled out at the end. This team virtually mirrors the Ravens in that they are both tough defences, good running games and less-than-Super QBs running the low-octane offences. They always preach rushing and defence and headless as they may be, both might make it despite a distinct lack of visibly talented QBs.
The Patriots, who make a habit out of getting to Super Bowls they don't really belong in, are always a threat to outperform their expectations. But they haven't got an easy road ahead of them with the shocking Jets team being the first barrier and then either the Ravens or Chargers to follow. Not to mention Rodney Harrison being out. Yes Brady, Brady, the QB of the ages who never loses a big game, blablabla. I've got news for you. I watched him playing last week and on the sidelines he bent over to pick something up and he's got a big fat bald spot waiting to erupt. That won't make him a worse QB of course but it does in fact, shatter the myth of infallability.
There isn't much to say about the rest of the teams in this one-game-at-a-time crap shoot. The Seahawks, defending NFC Champs have bordered on mediocre all season but managed to crawl through a more mediocre division to get their playoff berth the cheap way, as the lesser of evils (imagine the Cardinals, 49ers in this slot instead) and this sort of lack of expectation is precisely what fuels postseason runs (much like the Colts). They only have to get by Dallas, who have given up more points than their NBA counterpart Mavericks over the last four miserable weeks and are led by a QB with the fastest falling stock his side of Rex Chapman. Once that's finished there's only two MORE games between them and the Stupor Bowl and that's pretty much what we all imagined last season and look what happened. Boom, as John Madden would say, the Seahawks were in the final.
Last season the Steelers defeated all doubters winning all their road games as a Wild Card team and eventually, the Super Bowl. Is there a wild card out there this season who could make a similar run? The Seahawks aren't a WC team but they are, in fact, for all intents and purposes, only with a homefield advantage for game one. Their road record is 3-5 this season with ugly losses to the Steelers, Dolphins and Browns to their credit. At home, they might have been good enough but two road victories against playoff teams? Forget it. Jets? The most overrated 10-6 team ever? Quite possibly. The Giants? Look how they crumbled last season when the games counted. Tom Coughlin, adios.
What Sports Amnesia is seeing, and it isn't as pretty a sight as you might imagine is a Super Bowl coming down to two factors: The lack of expectation on the part of the Colts and the team that has seen the bottom and made it back, the Iggles. That's right. I'm sticking with my preseason pick all the way.
SATURDAY WILD CARD GAMES
KC CHIEFS (9-7) @ INDY COLTS (12-4) - This is of course a matchup made in heaven for those who love to hate the Colts, love to watch them choke and have fallen in love with cracking jokes about their inability to stop the run. It's almost as easy as making fun of Rex Grossman. Yes, Larry Johnson is a running back who could chew up and chew up and chew up the clock and the Colts' defence. The new defensive scheme for the Colts should be to let him run for a touchdown any time the Chiefs manage an offensive drive of more than 6 plays simply so they can get the ball back and score themselves because believe me, the Colts will score on these Chiefs and score often. Not only that, the Colts, for all their wretched play, have not lost at home yet this season. The Colts are favoured by 6 1/2 points and they will cover. Pick: Colts 36 Chiefs 14
DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-7) - If the Jets are the most overrated 10-6 team in the playoffs, the Seahawks are the most underrated 9-7 team left playing. They overcame the losses of their star QB and star RB, have taken a few weeks once those two returned to familiar with one another again and are ready to make their run. At least for one homefield advantage week. The Cowboys on the other hand, have their wunderkind QB on the ropes. Romomania is on the wane, Bill Parcells has not had a playoff run as the Cowboys coach and the team itself is prepared to collapse and collapse early. Even at home the Seahawks have such little respect they are only favoured by 2 1/2 points. Pick: Seawhawks 24 Cowboys 7
SUNDAY WILDCARD GAMES
NY JETS (10-6) @ NE PATRIOTS (12-4) - Mentor v mentee, Part Three, ho hum. These are two teams, not two intellectual giants facing each other over a chess board. This is a very overrated Jets team facing a very veteran Patriots team that exceeded most expectations, overcame the usual plethera of injuries and basically, forced themselves to win. Yes, the Jets did beat the Patriots once on the road but that is more a fluke than a trend. The Pats are favoured by 9 points and deservedly so. Pick: Patriots 27 Jets 10.
NY GIANTS (8-8) @ PHILLY IGGLES (10-6) - About the only thing the Giants have going for them is Tiki Barber and whilst that might have been enough against the Redskins last week, though just barely, this is still a team waiting to be embarassed. The Iggles on the other hand, are a team of destiny and momentum. Is it possible that yet another Pennsylvania team will go on to the Super Bowl? Who knows but they are certainly good enough to beat these Giants. The Iggles are favoured by 5 1/2 points and that might just not be enough for the Giants to cover. Pick: Iggles 27 Giants 14
And if you're curious, you see who the "experts" are picking.
Every year it's the same auld story. You go into a season making ridiculous picks for the Super Bowl and invariably, one or both picks struggle and/or don't even make the playoffs. This season Sports Amnesia had a Super Bowl matching the Indianapolis Colts against the Philadelphia Iggles and although both teams won their respective divisions, neither did in convincing enough fashion to merit a first round bye. Thus, both are forced to face Wild Card teams they could be upset by, an extree game no one really wanted, save for the wild card team of course, and a headache waiting to happen.
It's important to note that both the Iggles and the Colts could well make their unexpected runs onward to the Super Bowl. The Iggles have the suddenly infallable Jeff Garcia as their replacement QB and momentum, a valuable commodity going into the postseason. The Colts finally enter a postseason with zero expectation which might, considering their flailing amid high expectation, do them an unexpected bit of good.
It's also important to note that the two highest seeded teams, the Chargers and Bears are unlikely to find themselves facing each other in the Super Bowl. In fact, most are already calling the Chargers - Ravens potential AFC Title Game the real Super Bowl given the laughingstocks the NFC submissions to the postseason have become. The Chargers have the momentum of a long winning streak and a seemingly unstoppable team. We only have to look at the Colts of the last several years to know what that means as in sweet F.A. When was the last time you can recall a team being unstoppable all the way through to the Super Bowl? I thought so. Now imagine Marty Schottenheimer's historical postseason conservatism failures and humiliations and you can imagine where things might have a tendancy to go wrong. Of course, simply because everyone is thinking that already, well, perhaps that is reason enough that Schott won't, like the Colts, seize up in a gasping self-choke hold.
The Saints of course, are not only everyone's favourites but when you're looking at this seriously from the perspective of karma, performance, lack of pressure, lack of expectation, etc., there doesn't seem to be much in their way representing as they do the notoriously weak and laughable NFC bid for the Stupor Bowl. In fact, a Saints-Chargers matchup in the finale something very few would complain about and simply because it's probably the most appealing matchup, it's not likely to happen. The Saints are too inexperienced, too happy to be here sort of giddiness to match up with the gob-smacking reality of postseason football when every team that wants it, steps it up a notch, grinds it out, plays intimidating defence, (insert your own cliché here)
The Bears of course aren't going anywhere with Rex Grossman at QB. That's what their saying anyway. That's what they were saying in the preseason until he got them off to that rousing start that sort of fizzled out at the end. This team virtually mirrors the Ravens in that they are both tough defences, good running games and less-than-Super QBs running the low-octane offences. They always preach rushing and defence and headless as they may be, both might make it despite a distinct lack of visibly talented QBs.
The Patriots, who make a habit out of getting to Super Bowls they don't really belong in, are always a threat to outperform their expectations. But they haven't got an easy road ahead of them with the shocking Jets team being the first barrier and then either the Ravens or Chargers to follow. Not to mention Rodney Harrison being out. Yes Brady, Brady, the QB of the ages who never loses a big game, blablabla. I've got news for you. I watched him playing last week and on the sidelines he bent over to pick something up and he's got a big fat bald spot waiting to erupt. That won't make him a worse QB of course but it does in fact, shatter the myth of infallability.
There isn't much to say about the rest of the teams in this one-game-at-a-time crap shoot. The Seahawks, defending NFC Champs have bordered on mediocre all season but managed to crawl through a more mediocre division to get their playoff berth the cheap way, as the lesser of evils (imagine the Cardinals, 49ers in this slot instead) and this sort of lack of expectation is precisely what fuels postseason runs (much like the Colts). They only have to get by Dallas, who have given up more points than their NBA counterpart Mavericks over the last four miserable weeks and are led by a QB with the fastest falling stock his side of Rex Chapman. Once that's finished there's only two MORE games between them and the Stupor Bowl and that's pretty much what we all imagined last season and look what happened. Boom, as John Madden would say, the Seahawks were in the final.
Last season the Steelers defeated all doubters winning all their road games as a Wild Card team and eventually, the Super Bowl. Is there a wild card out there this season who could make a similar run? The Seahawks aren't a WC team but they are, in fact, for all intents and purposes, only with a homefield advantage for game one. Their road record is 3-5 this season with ugly losses to the Steelers, Dolphins and Browns to their credit. At home, they might have been good enough but two road victories against playoff teams? Forget it. Jets? The most overrated 10-6 team ever? Quite possibly. The Giants? Look how they crumbled last season when the games counted. Tom Coughlin, adios.
What Sports Amnesia is seeing, and it isn't as pretty a sight as you might imagine is a Super Bowl coming down to two factors: The lack of expectation on the part of the Colts and the team that has seen the bottom and made it back, the Iggles. That's right. I'm sticking with my preseason pick all the way.
SATURDAY WILD CARD GAMES
KC CHIEFS (9-7) @ INDY COLTS (12-4) - This is of course a matchup made in heaven for those who love to hate the Colts, love to watch them choke and have fallen in love with cracking jokes about their inability to stop the run. It's almost as easy as making fun of Rex Grossman. Yes, Larry Johnson is a running back who could chew up and chew up and chew up the clock and the Colts' defence. The new defensive scheme for the Colts should be to let him run for a touchdown any time the Chiefs manage an offensive drive of more than 6 plays simply so they can get the ball back and score themselves because believe me, the Colts will score on these Chiefs and score often. Not only that, the Colts, for all their wretched play, have not lost at home yet this season. The Colts are favoured by 6 1/2 points and they will cover. Pick: Colts 36 Chiefs 14
DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-7) - If the Jets are the most overrated 10-6 team in the playoffs, the Seahawks are the most underrated 9-7 team left playing. They overcame the losses of their star QB and star RB, have taken a few weeks once those two returned to familiar with one another again and are ready to make their run. At least for one homefield advantage week. The Cowboys on the other hand, have their wunderkind QB on the ropes. Romomania is on the wane, Bill Parcells has not had a playoff run as the Cowboys coach and the team itself is prepared to collapse and collapse early. Even at home the Seahawks have such little respect they are only favoured by 2 1/2 points. Pick: Seawhawks 24 Cowboys 7
SUNDAY WILDCARD GAMES
NY JETS (10-6) @ NE PATRIOTS (12-4) - Mentor v mentee, Part Three, ho hum. These are two teams, not two intellectual giants facing each other over a chess board. This is a very overrated Jets team facing a very veteran Patriots team that exceeded most expectations, overcame the usual plethera of injuries and basically, forced themselves to win. Yes, the Jets did beat the Patriots once on the road but that is more a fluke than a trend. The Pats are favoured by 9 points and deservedly so. Pick: Patriots 27 Jets 10.
NY GIANTS (8-8) @ PHILLY IGGLES (10-6) - About the only thing the Giants have going for them is Tiki Barber and whilst that might have been enough against the Redskins last week, though just barely, this is still a team waiting to be embarassed. The Iggles on the other hand, are a team of destiny and momentum. Is it possible that yet another Pennsylvania team will go on to the Super Bowl? Who knows but they are certainly good enough to beat these Giants. The Iggles are favoured by 5 1/2 points and that might just not be enough for the Giants to cover. Pick: Iggles 27 Giants 14
And if you're curious, you see who the "experts" are picking.
Sunday, December 31, 2006
Top Three Shocking Things About NFL's Final Regular Season Week
1. Chiefs In, Broncos Out - You find me bemoaning a postseason bereft of Mike Shanahan's blinding bronco teeth but considering the strong words of denunciation SA had for Chief's coach and Jet Expat Herm Edwards, it is a bit embarassing to see them worm their way in. Granted, it was no cheap effort. But look, it took a heapful of fates, the losses of Cincinnati, Tennessee and Denver in addition to their own win to get in. They beat the Jags fair and square and as improbable as it was, the Broncos' 5th loss in 7 games confirmed that the Chiefs are headed to Indianapolis next week. Imagine that: Larry Johnson and his 138 yards and three TDs against the Jags facing the Olé Rush Defence of the Colts.
2. Cowboys Stinking Worse Than Ever Heading Into Playoffs - You would imagine a team wanting some momentum going into the Prayoffs, playing at home against the NFL's second most laughable team, the miserable Detroit Lions, would have won this game handily. Let's say a 35-0 halftime margin to emphasise the point and give the starters some rest in the second half. Instead at the end of the first quarter they were losing to those pathetic Lions by a 13-0 margin! "I can't tell you how disappointed I am. I really can't," Parcells said, of the 39-31 humiliating defeat. "This is the low point for me in a long time." The Cowboys have allowed 132 points the last four games, the exact amount they gave up the previous eight games and will head to the once-notorious home of the Seahawks who have themselves been a laughable playoff-quality team of late. Funnier still, the Lions, who disappointed all year, blew the chance for the Number One Pick in next year's draft with the victory. Oh morale building victories, be still my heart.
Forget about the tough guy's final game...
3. Grossman Is As Bad As Advertised - Bears Believers Beware - It's a sticky wicket to have to question your starting QB with a week off going into the playoffs but Bears QB Rex Grossman has just as many question marks about his quality and form at the end of the regular season as he did at the end of the preseason and yeah, defence and rushing win titles in the NFL but when he goes 2-for-12 with three interceptions -- two of which were returned for touchdowns -- and a zero passer rating in the first half and does not come out for the second, you've got to believe that only Brian Griese's sad and ineffectual second half role (5 for 15 with 2 INTs) prevent this controversy from getting worse. Nonetheless, it must make Bears fans cringe.
"I've been in this position before," Grossman said. "I hate this. I hate it." There's a good chance the Bears will hate it more.
SEEMINGLY RANDOM THOUGHTS ON A SEEMINGLY RANDOM SEASON:
1. My preseason picks for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs (But on the bright side I got 6 of 8 of the division winners right:
AFC:
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Denver at Baltimore
Reality:
KC at Indy
NYJ at NE
NFC:
Tampa Bay at Arizona
Green Bay at Chicago (only one week off)
Reality:
NYG at Iggles
Dallas at Seattle
*****
The weakest playoff teams this season (or, teams most likely to shock everyone thus, and go to the Super Bowl):
1. Dallas Cowboys - As fast as Tony Romo's star arose it has fallen as defences have figured out how to stop him. This guy's demise will be faster than Mark "The Bird" Fidrych's.
2. NY Giants - Definately a hate/hate relationship, the media and Giants coaches. Much like his predecessor, the militant and evil dictator Tom Coughlin has almost been railroaded out of town for the umpteenth time only to be saved by a last-minute playoff. If they are routed by the Iggles and if the promise of making him leave might inspire Tiki's Return, it's bye bye evil dictator, hello next NFL whiz kid.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - This team sort of deserves their playoff spot but really, having to win and having to have three other teams lose makes them one of the more unlikelier candidates to have advanced. Funny thing is, with their running game and Indy's lack of a run defence, this game might be more interesting than expected.
*****
Congrats, New York - Getting both the Giants and the Jets into the playoffs in the same year for the first itme since 2002. No easy feat and certainly improbable.
1. Chiefs In, Broncos Out - You find me bemoaning a postseason bereft of Mike Shanahan's blinding bronco teeth but considering the strong words of denunciation SA had for Chief's coach and Jet Expat Herm Edwards, it is a bit embarassing to see them worm their way in. Granted, it was no cheap effort. But look, it took a heapful of fates, the losses of Cincinnati, Tennessee and Denver in addition to their own win to get in. They beat the Jags fair and square and as improbable as it was, the Broncos' 5th loss in 7 games confirmed that the Chiefs are headed to Indianapolis next week. Imagine that: Larry Johnson and his 138 yards and three TDs against the Jags facing the Olé Rush Defence of the Colts.
2. Cowboys Stinking Worse Than Ever Heading Into Playoffs - You would imagine a team wanting some momentum going into the Prayoffs, playing at home against the NFL's second most laughable team, the miserable Detroit Lions, would have won this game handily. Let's say a 35-0 halftime margin to emphasise the point and give the starters some rest in the second half. Instead at the end of the first quarter they were losing to those pathetic Lions by a 13-0 margin! "I can't tell you how disappointed I am. I really can't," Parcells said, of the 39-31 humiliating defeat. "This is the low point for me in a long time." The Cowboys have allowed 132 points the last four games, the exact amount they gave up the previous eight games and will head to the once-notorious home of the Seahawks who have themselves been a laughable playoff-quality team of late. Funnier still, the Lions, who disappointed all year, blew the chance for the Number One Pick in next year's draft with the victory. Oh morale building victories, be still my heart.
Forget about the tough guy's final game...
3. Grossman Is As Bad As Advertised - Bears Believers Beware - It's a sticky wicket to have to question your starting QB with a week off going into the playoffs but Bears QB Rex Grossman has just as many question marks about his quality and form at the end of the regular season as he did at the end of the preseason and yeah, defence and rushing win titles in the NFL but when he goes 2-for-12 with three interceptions -- two of which were returned for touchdowns -- and a zero passer rating in the first half and does not come out for the second, you've got to believe that only Brian Griese's sad and ineffectual second half role (5 for 15 with 2 INTs) prevent this controversy from getting worse. Nonetheless, it must make Bears fans cringe.
"I've been in this position before," Grossman said. "I hate this. I hate it." There's a good chance the Bears will hate it more.
SEEMINGLY RANDOM THOUGHTS ON A SEEMINGLY RANDOM SEASON:
1. My preseason picks for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs (But on the bright side I got 6 of 8 of the division winners right:
AFC:
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Denver at Baltimore
Reality:
KC at Indy
NYJ at NE
NFC:
Tampa Bay at Arizona
Green Bay at Chicago (only one week off)
Reality:
NYG at Iggles
Dallas at Seattle
*****
The weakest playoff teams this season (or, teams most likely to shock everyone thus, and go to the Super Bowl):
1. Dallas Cowboys - As fast as Tony Romo's star arose it has fallen as defences have figured out how to stop him. This guy's demise will be faster than Mark "The Bird" Fidrych's.
2. NY Giants - Definately a hate/hate relationship, the media and Giants coaches. Much like his predecessor, the militant and evil dictator Tom Coughlin has almost been railroaded out of town for the umpteenth time only to be saved by a last-minute playoff. If they are routed by the Iggles and if the promise of making him leave might inspire Tiki's Return, it's bye bye evil dictator, hello next NFL whiz kid.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - This team sort of deserves their playoff spot but really, having to win and having to have three other teams lose makes them one of the more unlikelier candidates to have advanced. Funny thing is, with their running game and Indy's lack of a run defence, this game might be more interesting than expected.
*****
Congrats, New York - Getting both the Giants and the Jets into the playoffs in the same year for the first itme since 2002. No easy feat and certainly improbable.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
WEEK 17 - The Prayoffs
With one little weekend remaining in the regular season it all comes down to the last minute mania of 11 teams vying for the three remaining playoff spots. The only certainty is at least one of those teams will be a .500 club, namely an NFC team. Parity raise your ugly head!
Still, not all the news is bad news. Every television market other than those with a home game will receive a 1 p.m. ET game on CBS and FOX and a 4:15 p.m. ET game on each network. This is the first time fans in those markets will receive four Sunday afternoon games. Here in the UK, that means what they like to say, sweet feck all considering we will get our standard two matches, these week the Pats v Titans and Falcons v Iggles. PLUS the bonus late Sunday Night game.
Now, rather than rattle off all the confusing, likely and unlikely scenarios it might be prudent to recall that last week again demonstrated that nothing is certain in this whacky NFL season and perhaps, as in many cases, the least expected is to be expected. (Witness my late season surge last week in improbably correct guessing to whit.) Thus, there is no miracle cure for accounting which three teams of the remaining (Boo hoo to Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Washington who have ALL been eliminated from playoff contention,) will get their final slots, let's just get right down to it, drop the scientific know-how, the educated guesses and the wishful thinking.
This week it's time to consider the most absurd potentials:
SATURDAY STEEL CAGE MATCH
N.Y. Giants (-2 1/2) vs. WASHINGTON - The NFC is everyone's whipping boy this season and well it should be considering the blight they are about to besmirch the postseason with. The Giants, despite a 7-8 record and a dismal month behind them are in the catbird seat for the final spot. All they have to do is beat the Redskins, something they have a long and hearty history of doing, especially when it comes to meaningful games against Joe Gibbs teams. All the more reason the Redskins just might upset the apple cart. Pick: Redskins.
SUNDAY FINALES
PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. Atlanta - Philly on a roll with their new-found wundermensch in Garcia at QB not only qualified for the playoffs last week but might even still knock the Cowboys from the NFC East perch. The Falcons, on the other hand are flying on one wing, the wing of Michael Vick and all season, Michael Vick has astounded and demoralised his team with his alternating skill and mediocrity. Amid all this the Falcons have lost 6 of their last 8. You might say the time is right if not too late for a turnaround but what can stop Garcia-Magic making them the underdog favourites to make it to the Super Bowl? Pick: Iggles.
BALTIMORE (-9) vs. Buffalo - The only redeeming quality of this game is that the Ravens are fighting for a first round bye, an extra week to recover whilst the Bills try and draw meaning from a season that appears to be finishing better than it started. The Bills won't run on the Ravens although Willis McGahee needs just 33 yards for his third straight 1,000-yard season. Question is, a strong finish to the season and .500 record on the road - is that enough to inspire the Bills? Pick: Ravens.
NEW ORLEANS (-8) vs. Carolina - Looks like the Panthers might return to the NFL again now that Jake Delhomme is scheduled to make his return. The Saints have already clinched and may be looking outward to the week ahead already following their Cinderella season. Pick: Panthers.
HOUSTON (-3 1/2) vs. Cleveland - The key in all of this is failing to overthink. That's what happens when the Houston Texans swallow the Indy Colts in their franchise-biggest win in history and the Browns can equal their crappy 2-6 home record with a 2-6 road record with just one more loss. Still, no playoff repercussions in this one, difficult to get enthused for either team and we shall rely upon the laws of anti-momentum in this one even though the Browns have the worst defence in professional football however with former U of Miami star Ken Dorsey getting the start, perhaps the Browns will score more on the Texans than the Colts were able to muster. Pick: Browns.
DALLAS (-11) vs. Detroit - You can only imagine this going one way, can't you? Lopsided and sloppy. But the Romo Magic has worn thin as defences have discovered more and more ways to defend the magic boy blunder and one is forced to wonder whether Bledsoe might ever reappear for the Cowboy Stars if things ever got really dire. The Boyz have plenty of motivation whereas the Lions are fighting for the #1 pick in the draft. Dallas (9-6) can still win the division and the NFC's third seed if it beats Detroit and Philadelphia loses to Atlanta. That would mean a home playoff game for the first time since 1998. But if the Cowboys lose, they'll open the first week of the postseason on the road at Seattle. Considering the Seahawks' season that might be preferable to the Boyz but all this in-team bickering has to end somewhere and 3 TD passes to TO would probably shut everyone up for awhile. Pick: Cowboys.
KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. Jacksonville - has covered its final road game three of the last four seasons and is 10-1-1 against the spread in its last 12 games when not favored. From a playoff perspective, both teams can still get in, provided the Jets and Broncos don't both win. "I'm very disappointed," Kansas City coach Herman Edwards said, summing up his Jets coaching career. "I didn't come in here just to win some games. I came in here to try to win a division, win a championship. Well, best intentions being what they are, I say a Herm Edwards-coached team chokes the bit again. Pick: Jags.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7 1/2) vs. Miami - The Colts, tsk, tsk. Notoriously poor finishers, the Colts have failed to cover their final home game, and their final game overall, each of the last four seasons. Of course by then, they'd already clinched the greatest team in the History of the NFL that sucked when it mattered most. This time, this new theme of lose alot going into the playoffs just might be magic. Then again, as we've all heard ad infinitum since the beginning of childhood, this is the time of year that teams that don't defend against the run get squashed. On the other hand, the Dolphins have just about run out of QB options and with Persnickity Lemon starting the returning Ronnie Brown will have to get 30 carries at least to make this game anything but a route. By the way, an interesting note: Peyton Manning, 3-7 lifetime against the Dolphins. All the more reason the Colts won't be kicked when they are down. Pick: Colts.
TENNESSEE (-3) vs. New England - I don't mind telling you I'd like to see the NFL's newest edition to the most-exciting team with their rookie QB wonder and having covered its final home game in six of the last seven seasons, make it straight into the playoffs. But too many teams have got to lose for this to happen (namely root against Cincy, Jacksonville and Denver). The thing to remember is that the Patriots don't have much to play for and they will likely need to rest alot of starters heading into the playoffs so even though the Titans won't likely reach the playoff galaxy, they still rank with the Saints for the greatest comeback story of the season. Pick: Titans.
N.Y. JETS (-11 1/2) vs. Oakland - If Herm Edwards were still coaching the Jets with everything on the line like this, I'd say the Rayduhs win this one handily. But he isn't. Coaching Boy Wonder Eric Mangini is, thank god. If the Jets win, they're in - it's that simple. If they lose, they would get in if Cincinnati and Jacksonville lose or tie; if Cincinnati loses or ties and Tennessee wins; or if Denver and Jacksonville lose. You'd think that's just too much calculating for anyone's head. But let's consider the Jets haven't won three in a row Nov. 21-Dec. 5, 2004. Pick: Rayduhs.
CINCINNATI (-6) vs. Pittsburgh - The Defending World Champs are gone, out of it. The Bengals would make the playoffs if hell freezes over OR if the Bengals win and the New York Jets lose at home to 2-13 Oakland, Cincinnati would earn a wild-card berth OR they could also earn the wild card with a victory, combined with a Denver loss at home to San Francisco and a Kansas City win over Jacksonville. On the other hand, who thinks the Steelers would stink it up in what might be Bill Cowher's final game coaching them? Pick: Steelers.
TAMPA BAY (-3 1/2) vs. Seattle - Imagine the chances of a playoff bound team being underdogs against a team that is 4-11. Imagine what that tells you about the quality of this particular playoff team. These defending NFC champs have not lost four straight games since losing five in a row Oct. 2-29, 2000, when they were a member of the AFC West. If they were still in that group, they'd have been knocked out of playoff contention right around week 6. Pick: Bucs.
St. Louis (-2) vs. MINNESOTA - St. Louis is one of five NFC teams at 7-8 vying for the final wild-card spot. It must win and have the New York Giants, Carolina and Atlanta all lose or tie to avoid missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Vikings on the other hand, have simply blooooown it yet again. In this crazy season, this is just where the Vikings make a suprising comeback to avoid a losing season at home for the first time since 1984. Pick: Vikings.
SAN DIEGO (-13 1/2) vs. Arizona - Will these Chargers EVER take a week off? We will have plenty of time to point out Marty Schottenheimer's miserable playoff history in the weeks to follow. San Diego can clinch the AFC's top seed with a victory over the Cardinals or if Baltimore loses to Buffalo at home earlier on Sunday. The Ravens beat the Chargers 16-13 on Oct. 1 and would hold the tiebreaker if the teams finished tied. With Matt Leinart out and Jesus Freak Kurt Warner at the controls, expect a return to mediocrity for this team who suddenly almost seemed to discover itself and save the Fat Man's job for another season. The Chargers have covered only one of their last five contests as a favorite of more than 10 points. Pick: Cardinals.
DENVER (-10 1/2) vs. San Francisco - There's still a prayer of avoiding a Shanahan Blinding Teeth playoff for the first time in the recollectable history but if the Broncos win or a tie, or Kansas City lose or tie, they're in thanks to last week's muffed extra point attempt in the snow by the Bengals. On the other hand, the Broncos have covered only two of their last 10 games as a favorite of more than 10 points and the 49ers will be looking to find some revenge for the season after getting knocked out last week by the Cardinals. Pick: 49ers.
CHICAGO (-3) vs. Green Bay - This game getting moved to Sunday Night means it won't be shown in the UK until 2007. I don't care how many people grumble about Brett Favre's face time in what yet again might be his last game ever. He's the most over-rated exciting QB since Kenny Stabler, in my book - another gutsy QB with no majestic beauty and plenty of bad history. I'll be rooting all the way for a big Packer upset and the playoffs but the Pack will need alot of crazy things to happen with a very unlikely combination of results around the league to make it happen and chances are, their fate will be decided before kickoff. Still, the headache-inducing possibilities remain their last and final hope to salvage a last hurrah for the Pack. We all know what kind of performance can be expected from the Bears, who are sleep walking into the playoffs but keep winning anyway. Pick: Da Bears.
Last week: A miraculous winning mark for the first time since very early in the season means that the season's record stands at 102-116-4 and these picks will have to be nearly perfect to achieve a .500 mark on picking games Sports Amnesia know nothing about.
That said, as a bonus to try and push the .500 mark, we will go out on a limb to give you next week's playoffs in advance and these will only count as victories if they are 100% correct:
Denver @ New England
Jets @ Indy
NY Giants @ Philly
Dallas @ Seattle
With one little weekend remaining in the regular season it all comes down to the last minute mania of 11 teams vying for the three remaining playoff spots. The only certainty is at least one of those teams will be a .500 club, namely an NFC team. Parity raise your ugly head!
Still, not all the news is bad news. Every television market other than those with a home game will receive a 1 p.m. ET game on CBS and FOX and a 4:15 p.m. ET game on each network. This is the first time fans in those markets will receive four Sunday afternoon games. Here in the UK, that means what they like to say, sweet feck all considering we will get our standard two matches, these week the Pats v Titans and Falcons v Iggles. PLUS the bonus late Sunday Night game.
Now, rather than rattle off all the confusing, likely and unlikely scenarios it might be prudent to recall that last week again demonstrated that nothing is certain in this whacky NFL season and perhaps, as in many cases, the least expected is to be expected. (Witness my late season surge last week in improbably correct guessing to whit.) Thus, there is no miracle cure for accounting which three teams of the remaining (Boo hoo to Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Washington who have ALL been eliminated from playoff contention,) will get their final slots, let's just get right down to it, drop the scientific know-how, the educated guesses and the wishful thinking.
This week it's time to consider the most absurd potentials:
SATURDAY STEEL CAGE MATCH
N.Y. Giants (-2 1/2) vs. WASHINGTON - The NFC is everyone's whipping boy this season and well it should be considering the blight they are about to besmirch the postseason with. The Giants, despite a 7-8 record and a dismal month behind them are in the catbird seat for the final spot. All they have to do is beat the Redskins, something they have a long and hearty history of doing, especially when it comes to meaningful games against Joe Gibbs teams. All the more reason the Redskins just might upset the apple cart. Pick: Redskins.
SUNDAY FINALES
PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. Atlanta - Philly on a roll with their new-found wundermensch in Garcia at QB not only qualified for the playoffs last week but might even still knock the Cowboys from the NFC East perch. The Falcons, on the other hand are flying on one wing, the wing of Michael Vick and all season, Michael Vick has astounded and demoralised his team with his alternating skill and mediocrity. Amid all this the Falcons have lost 6 of their last 8. You might say the time is right if not too late for a turnaround but what can stop Garcia-Magic making them the underdog favourites to make it to the Super Bowl? Pick: Iggles.
BALTIMORE (-9) vs. Buffalo - The only redeeming quality of this game is that the Ravens are fighting for a first round bye, an extra week to recover whilst the Bills try and draw meaning from a season that appears to be finishing better than it started. The Bills won't run on the Ravens although Willis McGahee needs just 33 yards for his third straight 1,000-yard season. Question is, a strong finish to the season and .500 record on the road - is that enough to inspire the Bills? Pick: Ravens.
NEW ORLEANS (-8) vs. Carolina - Looks like the Panthers might return to the NFL again now that Jake Delhomme is scheduled to make his return. The Saints have already clinched and may be looking outward to the week ahead already following their Cinderella season. Pick: Panthers.
HOUSTON (-3 1/2) vs. Cleveland - The key in all of this is failing to overthink. That's what happens when the Houston Texans swallow the Indy Colts in their franchise-biggest win in history and the Browns can equal their crappy 2-6 home record with a 2-6 road record with just one more loss. Still, no playoff repercussions in this one, difficult to get enthused for either team and we shall rely upon the laws of anti-momentum in this one even though the Browns have the worst defence in professional football however with former U of Miami star Ken Dorsey getting the start, perhaps the Browns will score more on the Texans than the Colts were able to muster. Pick: Browns.
DALLAS (-11) vs. Detroit - You can only imagine this going one way, can't you? Lopsided and sloppy. But the Romo Magic has worn thin as defences have discovered more and more ways to defend the magic boy blunder and one is forced to wonder whether Bledsoe might ever reappear for the Cowboy Stars if things ever got really dire. The Boyz have plenty of motivation whereas the Lions are fighting for the #1 pick in the draft. Dallas (9-6) can still win the division and the NFC's third seed if it beats Detroit and Philadelphia loses to Atlanta. That would mean a home playoff game for the first time since 1998. But if the Cowboys lose, they'll open the first week of the postseason on the road at Seattle. Considering the Seahawks' season that might be preferable to the Boyz but all this in-team bickering has to end somewhere and 3 TD passes to TO would probably shut everyone up for awhile. Pick: Cowboys.
KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. Jacksonville - has covered its final road game three of the last four seasons and is 10-1-1 against the spread in its last 12 games when not favored. From a playoff perspective, both teams can still get in, provided the Jets and Broncos don't both win. "I'm very disappointed," Kansas City coach Herman Edwards said, summing up his Jets coaching career. "I didn't come in here just to win some games. I came in here to try to win a division, win a championship. Well, best intentions being what they are, I say a Herm Edwards-coached team chokes the bit again. Pick: Jags.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7 1/2) vs. Miami - The Colts, tsk, tsk. Notoriously poor finishers, the Colts have failed to cover their final home game, and their final game overall, each of the last four seasons. Of course by then, they'd already clinched the greatest team in the History of the NFL that sucked when it mattered most. This time, this new theme of lose alot going into the playoffs just might be magic. Then again, as we've all heard ad infinitum since the beginning of childhood, this is the time of year that teams that don't defend against the run get squashed. On the other hand, the Dolphins have just about run out of QB options and with Persnickity Lemon starting the returning Ronnie Brown will have to get 30 carries at least to make this game anything but a route. By the way, an interesting note: Peyton Manning, 3-7 lifetime against the Dolphins. All the more reason the Colts won't be kicked when they are down. Pick: Colts.
TENNESSEE (-3) vs. New England - I don't mind telling you I'd like to see the NFL's newest edition to the most-exciting team with their rookie QB wonder and having covered its final home game in six of the last seven seasons, make it straight into the playoffs. But too many teams have got to lose for this to happen (namely root against Cincy, Jacksonville and Denver). The thing to remember is that the Patriots don't have much to play for and they will likely need to rest alot of starters heading into the playoffs so even though the Titans won't likely reach the playoff galaxy, they still rank with the Saints for the greatest comeback story of the season. Pick: Titans.
N.Y. JETS (-11 1/2) vs. Oakland - If Herm Edwards were still coaching the Jets with everything on the line like this, I'd say the Rayduhs win this one handily. But he isn't. Coaching Boy Wonder Eric Mangini is, thank god. If the Jets win, they're in - it's that simple. If they lose, they would get in if Cincinnati and Jacksonville lose or tie; if Cincinnati loses or ties and Tennessee wins; or if Denver and Jacksonville lose. You'd think that's just too much calculating for anyone's head. But let's consider the Jets haven't won three in a row Nov. 21-Dec. 5, 2004. Pick: Rayduhs.
CINCINNATI (-6) vs. Pittsburgh - The Defending World Champs are gone, out of it. The Bengals would make the playoffs if hell freezes over OR if the Bengals win and the New York Jets lose at home to 2-13 Oakland, Cincinnati would earn a wild-card berth OR they could also earn the wild card with a victory, combined with a Denver loss at home to San Francisco and a Kansas City win over Jacksonville. On the other hand, who thinks the Steelers would stink it up in what might be Bill Cowher's final game coaching them? Pick: Steelers.
TAMPA BAY (-3 1/2) vs. Seattle - Imagine the chances of a playoff bound team being underdogs against a team that is 4-11. Imagine what that tells you about the quality of this particular playoff team. These defending NFC champs have not lost four straight games since losing five in a row Oct. 2-29, 2000, when they were a member of the AFC West. If they were still in that group, they'd have been knocked out of playoff contention right around week 6. Pick: Bucs.
St. Louis (-2) vs. MINNESOTA - St. Louis is one of five NFC teams at 7-8 vying for the final wild-card spot. It must win and have the New York Giants, Carolina and Atlanta all lose or tie to avoid missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Vikings on the other hand, have simply blooooown it yet again. In this crazy season, this is just where the Vikings make a suprising comeback to avoid a losing season at home for the first time since 1984. Pick: Vikings.
SAN DIEGO (-13 1/2) vs. Arizona - Will these Chargers EVER take a week off? We will have plenty of time to point out Marty Schottenheimer's miserable playoff history in the weeks to follow. San Diego can clinch the AFC's top seed with a victory over the Cardinals or if Baltimore loses to Buffalo at home earlier on Sunday. The Ravens beat the Chargers 16-13 on Oct. 1 and would hold the tiebreaker if the teams finished tied. With Matt Leinart out and Jesus Freak Kurt Warner at the controls, expect a return to mediocrity for this team who suddenly almost seemed to discover itself and save the Fat Man's job for another season. The Chargers have covered only one of their last five contests as a favorite of more than 10 points. Pick: Cardinals.
DENVER (-10 1/2) vs. San Francisco - There's still a prayer of avoiding a Shanahan Blinding Teeth playoff for the first time in the recollectable history but if the Broncos win or a tie, or Kansas City lose or tie, they're in thanks to last week's muffed extra point attempt in the snow by the Bengals. On the other hand, the Broncos have covered only two of their last 10 games as a favorite of more than 10 points and the 49ers will be looking to find some revenge for the season after getting knocked out last week by the Cardinals. Pick: 49ers.
CHICAGO (-3) vs. Green Bay - This game getting moved to Sunday Night means it won't be shown in the UK until 2007. I don't care how many people grumble about Brett Favre's face time in what yet again might be his last game ever. He's the most over-rated exciting QB since Kenny Stabler, in my book - another gutsy QB with no majestic beauty and plenty of bad history. I'll be rooting all the way for a big Packer upset and the playoffs but the Pack will need alot of crazy things to happen with a very unlikely combination of results around the league to make it happen and chances are, their fate will be decided before kickoff. Still, the headache-inducing possibilities remain their last and final hope to salvage a last hurrah for the Pack. We all know what kind of performance can be expected from the Bears, who are sleep walking into the playoffs but keep winning anyway. Pick: Da Bears.
Last week: A miraculous winning mark for the first time since very early in the season means that the season's record stands at 102-116-4 and these picks will have to be nearly perfect to achieve a .500 mark on picking games Sports Amnesia know nothing about.
That said, as a bonus to try and push the .500 mark, we will go out on a limb to give you next week's playoffs in advance and these will only count as victories if they are 100% correct:
Denver @ New England
Jets @ Indy
NY Giants @ Philly
Dallas @ Seattle
Three Shocking Things About Week 16
1. Packers Still In Playoff Hunt - I had these same Packers making the playoffs in my preseason picks with a last hurrah for Brett Favre. However, after the miserable start, the stuttering play throughout the season, the chances of this happening were somewhere between miserable and none. Following their victory over the Vikings, they can make the playoffs with
1) GB win + NYG win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG, OR
2) GB win + NYG loss or tie + STL loss or tie, OR
3) GB win + NYG loss or tie + CAR win, OR
4) GB win + NYG loss or tie + ATL win, OR
5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie
Basically, a win at Chicago does it. I'm not saying it's impossible but don't hold your breath. Still, the fact that they are still in the hunt speaks volumes not of the resiliency of the Pack but the weakness of the NFC this season.
2. Colts Lose AGAIN - I get it already. Flushed by victory after victory during the regular season only to see themselves stumble and fall once the games began to matter, the Colts have decided on a different philosophy. Stumble and fall into the playoffs thereby paving the way for a successful post season. I'm buying it but I don't think the rest of the NFL is.
3. Cowboys Humiliated Again - Ok, perhaps it is even MORE surprising that they were humiliated at the hands of the Iggles considering where everyone believed the Iggles were headed when Donovan McNabb went down for the season. Nonetheless, it's plain ole ugly and the best part of it is watching the sagging shoulders of all those bloody Tony Romo Lovers as reality begins to weigh down upon them like a doomed outcome. "We were noncompetitive," coach Bill Parcells said. "There's nothing good to say. We just didn't make any plays at all, either side of the ball. Just awful." Get used to it Bill. As in, first round of the playoffs you'll be singing the same auld song.
*****
BITS AND BOBS
--- Oh how long the breath will be held not counting on the Jets to shock the NFL and their fans with one more victory and a playoff berth. Eric Mangini will not win coach of the year what with the Saints' miraculous comeback from the depths of nowhere and obscurity but he certainly held together a team going nowhere fast and gives Jets fans everywhere reason to believe in the future.
--- What is it about the NFC? Chances of teams making the playoffs with a losing record has the Schadenfreudists howling with delight but the guess here is sanity will prevail.
1. Packers Still In Playoff Hunt - I had these same Packers making the playoffs in my preseason picks with a last hurrah for Brett Favre. However, after the miserable start, the stuttering play throughout the season, the chances of this happening were somewhere between miserable and none. Following their victory over the Vikings, they can make the playoffs with
1) GB win + NYG win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG, OR
2) GB win + NYG loss or tie + STL loss or tie, OR
3) GB win + NYG loss or tie + CAR win, OR
4) GB win + NYG loss or tie + ATL win, OR
5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie
Basically, a win at Chicago does it. I'm not saying it's impossible but don't hold your breath. Still, the fact that they are still in the hunt speaks volumes not of the resiliency of the Pack but the weakness of the NFC this season.
2. Colts Lose AGAIN - I get it already. Flushed by victory after victory during the regular season only to see themselves stumble and fall once the games began to matter, the Colts have decided on a different philosophy. Stumble and fall into the playoffs thereby paving the way for a successful post season. I'm buying it but I don't think the rest of the NFL is.
3. Cowboys Humiliated Again - Ok, perhaps it is even MORE surprising that they were humiliated at the hands of the Iggles considering where everyone believed the Iggles were headed when Donovan McNabb went down for the season. Nonetheless, it's plain ole ugly and the best part of it is watching the sagging shoulders of all those bloody Tony Romo Lovers as reality begins to weigh down upon them like a doomed outcome. "We were noncompetitive," coach Bill Parcells said. "There's nothing good to say. We just didn't make any plays at all, either side of the ball. Just awful." Get used to it Bill. As in, first round of the playoffs you'll be singing the same auld song.
*****
BITS AND BOBS
--- Oh how long the breath will be held not counting on the Jets to shock the NFL and their fans with one more victory and a playoff berth. Eric Mangini will not win coach of the year what with the Saints' miraculous comeback from the depths of nowhere and obscurity but he certainly held together a team going nowhere fast and gives Jets fans everywhere reason to believe in the future.
--- What is it about the NFC? Chances of teams making the playoffs with a losing record has the Schadenfreudists howling with delight but the guess here is sanity will prevail.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Week 16 - XMAS EDITION
Let's face it. After 16 weeks of football we are no closer to knowing who has the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl, let alone who will win it. On the one hand you could say that it is exciting not knowing from one week to the next who is going to show up, who will be up and who will be down, who will upset who and who will be upset in the most absurd of final scorelines.
On the other hand you could bemoan the glory days of unbeatens and powerhouses that could be glorified. It all started with the Patriots, in my opinion. They won three Super Bowls by what, a total of about 10 points, overpowering no one but dully, supernaturally good. Not exciting, not fearsome. Just efficient.
And now it culminates this season with a collection of teams who have all taken their turns being held up as the team to beat only to be beaten the following week by nobodies. It's as though the mantle of being the best is a hot potato no one wants to hold.
What has this got to do with xmas? Not a bloody thing but the timing, lads, is all in the peaking. Regardless of who has been favoured this season there is a little team in Pittsburgh sneaking up slowly, just as they did last year before running the table and wouldn't it be appropriate if the Steelers won it all again just after everyone had finished writing them off?
And because I am writing this it must not be true, or if it is, it won't be true for very long because in the NFL, nothing stays constant. Therefore, as a Christmas dediction and considering my losing record thus far this season in predicting the games with the spread, I will use the logic called Pick The Opposite of What You Think and see where it gets us.
Have a good xmas, everyone.
THOYSDAY NIGHT
GREEN BAY (-3) vs. Minnesota - Vikings humiliated at home last week to the Jets, Packers beating the Lions predictably. Vikings just about drowned playoff hopes. This is an easy one. Pick: Vikings.
SATURDAY NIGHTS ALRIGHT FOR SLEEPING
Kansas City (-4½) vs. OAKLAND - Da Rayduhs have been one of the few predictable teams in the NFL this season. Bad, badder, worse, all season long save for a short blip of about two weeks when they won a game and almost looked respectable. This should be a no brainer but it's being played against a no-brainer, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards who we Jets fans thank the Football Gods every week abandoned us and made way for the now heavily worshipped Mister Mangini. If there's a bad decision to be made, Herm will be there to make it but will his poor judgement be enough to sabotage his team against one of the NFL's most stable laughingstocks? Pick: Chiefs.
THE ANTICIPATION OF PLAYOFFS BUILDING
PITTSBURGH (-3½) vs. Baltimore - History does not repeat itself, kids. Only in the world of bad decisions and human nature, not in the NFL. Well, not like this where a team comes out of nowhere for a second season in a row to run the table and win the Super Bowl. Nope. And the Ravens are the sneakiest best team in the NFL there is. Nobody's picking them, no one has picked them all season. Some people even still think they want to call them the Colts. So the Steelers are on a roll, playing at home with everything on the line. Must be the Ravens will win by 30 points. Pick: Ravens.
ATLANTA (-6½) vs. Carolina - Here's another one. Have the Panthers packed it in already? They're out of the playoffs (well, in the NFC, anything is possible since no one really wants those wild cards...) and they've just been humiliated at home by the defending World Champions. The Falcons this season thus far have won two, lost won. Won one, lost one. Won two, lost four. Won two again and then lost last week again. This is a discernable pattern. Like hearing Michael Vick in the washing machine. Pick: Carolina.
Chicago (-4½) vs. DETROIT - Ok, the Rayduhs aren't the NFL's only worst team. The Lions have a laughingstock history almost as rich and at least Al Davis can point to one or two Super Bowl trophies. The best the Lions can do is host a Super Bowl. Of course the Bears on the other hand should have beaten the Bucs by 50 last week before myseriously throwing in the towel only to pull it back like a rug from beneath the Tampa Bay feet in OT. The Lions just plain suck and are virtually immune to the up and down nature of this season. I hate to go with the obvious, but, Pick: Da Bears.
Indianapolis (-9) vs. HOUSTON - This, we would say is another no brainer. Just a few weeks ago the Colts had everyone's head spinning with laughter at their sudden plunge into the cold depths of mediocrity. Then they besmirch the rising tide of Bengals supporters by playing like they have in every other week the last 3 years that weren't weeks during which playoff games fall. Combine that with the fact that David Carr is rapidly becoming the Chris Weinke of his NFL generation and this looks like a bloooooooow out, lads. Which is why it can't be. Pick: Houston!
JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. New England - One of the seasons best stories is Belichick's Bullies suddenly looking mortal. It's been a slow season and a half coming but that loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago sealed it. Don't worry about last week's drubbing of Houston. It was Houston, after all. Jags, well they trounce the Colts one week, lose to the Titans the next. It's all very predictable, you see. Pick: Jacksonville.
N.Y. GIANTS (-3) vs. New Orleans - This is a tough one. The best matchup of the week, methinks. Both teams suffered humiliating losses last week, no one is on the upswing even though two weeks ago, they were both harbouring delusions of grandeur. Drew Brees is not the NFL's MVP despite all the ridiculous chants for him over LT. Drew Brees is merely the beneficiary of a very long and drawn out karmic episode of first you got it really bad, New Orleans then, inexplicably, you've got it really good. Pick: Giants.
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. Tampa Bay - The Who Cares Bowl. Simply by virtue of almost upsetting the Bears, a feat in a remarkably dull season for the Bucs that registers as almost good enough, the Bucs are probably on the downswing again. Pick: Cleveland.
BUFFALO (-4½) vs. Tennessee - This one is a real head-scratcher. Both teams coming off big upsets both looking like teams on the upswing. One will disappoint. The Titans have won five in a row, the Bills, four of their last five. That means the Titans will lose because NOBODY wins six in a row in the NFL save for the Chargers. Pick: Buffalo.
ST. LOUIS (-2½) vs. Washington - The Redskins have had two highlights this season - the last second victory over the Cowboys and the win over the Saints that surprised even the Redskins. Every time you think the Redskins are a decent team (and believe me, that takes a helluva lot of imagination,) the Redskins roar back like a gang of crippled mice. Pick: St Louis.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. Arizona - For most of the season the Cardinals spent their time battling the Lions and Rayduhs for the worst team in the NFL status. The 49ers on the other hand, the laughingstocks the last two or three seasons running, are working their way up to nearly respectable. The key element here is the 49ers upset victory over the Seahawks in Seattle. That must mean they are headed for a downswing. Pick: Arizona.
DENVER (-1) vs. Cincinnati - America's Most Arrested Team did a good job convincing us they were on the upswing with several convincing performances in a row right after we'd got done writing them off. The Broncos well, what are they, changing quarterbacks in midseason? All I know is I don't want to have to witness another postseason wearing sunglasses to keep Mike Shanahan's teeth from blinding me and if they win this one, they're in the playoffs. So pray. Pick: Bengals.
San Diego (-3) vs. SEATTLE - This one, we say, is a no-brainer. Seattle has disappointed all season and the Chargers have been virtually immune to the rest of the league's inability to stay upright more than a few weeks in a row. The Chargers are everyone's pick for everything. Thus, this is my upset pick of the week. Pick: Seattle.
Monday night
TWO Monday night games, who is kidding whom? Oh right, it's Christmas. All the more reason to have TWO games on a Monday night.
DALLAS (-6½) vs. Philadelphia - Good Lawd, if you thought last week's NFC East bloodbath was big, an almost single elimination playoff in the toughest division, get excited about this one even more. Here's the clincher: Tony Romo, the accolades for whom have made me literally sick to my stomach several times this season, the man everyone is shoving each other to get first in line to say MEME, I PREDICTED HIS GREATNESS FIRST, is going up against a guy who is everyone's second choice as QB in Philly. Question is, how much does Jeff Garcia look like a 1972 Earl Morrell? Well, not much but in a matchup of heralded versus reviled QBs, the underenthused will prevail. Pick: Iggles.
N.Y. Jets (+2) vs MIAMI - Easy does it now. The Jets have surprised everyone including their most ardent supporters. The Dolphins have disappointed an even greater sum. The Dolphins upset the Pats one week and then lose by an almost equal margin against the Bills no less. In the scheme of ups and downs, the Jets are do for a down, the Dolphins due for an up. Pick: Miami.
Last week: 7-9 (following a predictable pattern)
Season: 102-116-4
Let's face it. After 16 weeks of football we are no closer to knowing who has the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl, let alone who will win it. On the one hand you could say that it is exciting not knowing from one week to the next who is going to show up, who will be up and who will be down, who will upset who and who will be upset in the most absurd of final scorelines.
On the other hand you could bemoan the glory days of unbeatens and powerhouses that could be glorified. It all started with the Patriots, in my opinion. They won three Super Bowls by what, a total of about 10 points, overpowering no one but dully, supernaturally good. Not exciting, not fearsome. Just efficient.
And now it culminates this season with a collection of teams who have all taken their turns being held up as the team to beat only to be beaten the following week by nobodies. It's as though the mantle of being the best is a hot potato no one wants to hold.
What has this got to do with xmas? Not a bloody thing but the timing, lads, is all in the peaking. Regardless of who has been favoured this season there is a little team in Pittsburgh sneaking up slowly, just as they did last year before running the table and wouldn't it be appropriate if the Steelers won it all again just after everyone had finished writing them off?
And because I am writing this it must not be true, or if it is, it won't be true for very long because in the NFL, nothing stays constant. Therefore, as a Christmas dediction and considering my losing record thus far this season in predicting the games with the spread, I will use the logic called Pick The Opposite of What You Think and see where it gets us.
Have a good xmas, everyone.
THOYSDAY NIGHT
GREEN BAY (-3) vs. Minnesota - Vikings humiliated at home last week to the Jets, Packers beating the Lions predictably. Vikings just about drowned playoff hopes. This is an easy one. Pick: Vikings.
SATURDAY NIGHTS ALRIGHT FOR SLEEPING
Kansas City (-4½) vs. OAKLAND - Da Rayduhs have been one of the few predictable teams in the NFL this season. Bad, badder, worse, all season long save for a short blip of about two weeks when they won a game and almost looked respectable. This should be a no brainer but it's being played against a no-brainer, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards who we Jets fans thank the Football Gods every week abandoned us and made way for the now heavily worshipped Mister Mangini. If there's a bad decision to be made, Herm will be there to make it but will his poor judgement be enough to sabotage his team against one of the NFL's most stable laughingstocks? Pick: Chiefs.
THE ANTICIPATION OF PLAYOFFS BUILDING
PITTSBURGH (-3½) vs. Baltimore - History does not repeat itself, kids. Only in the world of bad decisions and human nature, not in the NFL. Well, not like this where a team comes out of nowhere for a second season in a row to run the table and win the Super Bowl. Nope. And the Ravens are the sneakiest best team in the NFL there is. Nobody's picking them, no one has picked them all season. Some people even still think they want to call them the Colts. So the Steelers are on a roll, playing at home with everything on the line. Must be the Ravens will win by 30 points. Pick: Ravens.
ATLANTA (-6½) vs. Carolina - Here's another one. Have the Panthers packed it in already? They're out of the playoffs (well, in the NFC, anything is possible since no one really wants those wild cards...) and they've just been humiliated at home by the defending World Champions. The Falcons this season thus far have won two, lost won. Won one, lost one. Won two, lost four. Won two again and then lost last week again. This is a discernable pattern. Like hearing Michael Vick in the washing machine. Pick: Carolina.
Chicago (-4½) vs. DETROIT - Ok, the Rayduhs aren't the NFL's only worst team. The Lions have a laughingstock history almost as rich and at least Al Davis can point to one or two Super Bowl trophies. The best the Lions can do is host a Super Bowl. Of course the Bears on the other hand should have beaten the Bucs by 50 last week before myseriously throwing in the towel only to pull it back like a rug from beneath the Tampa Bay feet in OT. The Lions just plain suck and are virtually immune to the up and down nature of this season. I hate to go with the obvious, but, Pick: Da Bears.
Indianapolis (-9) vs. HOUSTON - This, we would say is another no brainer. Just a few weeks ago the Colts had everyone's head spinning with laughter at their sudden plunge into the cold depths of mediocrity. Then they besmirch the rising tide of Bengals supporters by playing like they have in every other week the last 3 years that weren't weeks during which playoff games fall. Combine that with the fact that David Carr is rapidly becoming the Chris Weinke of his NFL generation and this looks like a bloooooooow out, lads. Which is why it can't be. Pick: Houston!
JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. New England - One of the seasons best stories is Belichick's Bullies suddenly looking mortal. It's been a slow season and a half coming but that loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago sealed it. Don't worry about last week's drubbing of Houston. It was Houston, after all. Jags, well they trounce the Colts one week, lose to the Titans the next. It's all very predictable, you see. Pick: Jacksonville.
N.Y. GIANTS (-3) vs. New Orleans - This is a tough one. The best matchup of the week, methinks. Both teams suffered humiliating losses last week, no one is on the upswing even though two weeks ago, they were both harbouring delusions of grandeur. Drew Brees is not the NFL's MVP despite all the ridiculous chants for him over LT. Drew Brees is merely the beneficiary of a very long and drawn out karmic episode of first you got it really bad, New Orleans then, inexplicably, you've got it really good. Pick: Giants.
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. Tampa Bay - The Who Cares Bowl. Simply by virtue of almost upsetting the Bears, a feat in a remarkably dull season for the Bucs that registers as almost good enough, the Bucs are probably on the downswing again. Pick: Cleveland.
BUFFALO (-4½) vs. Tennessee - This one is a real head-scratcher. Both teams coming off big upsets both looking like teams on the upswing. One will disappoint. The Titans have won five in a row, the Bills, four of their last five. That means the Titans will lose because NOBODY wins six in a row in the NFL save for the Chargers. Pick: Buffalo.
ST. LOUIS (-2½) vs. Washington - The Redskins have had two highlights this season - the last second victory over the Cowboys and the win over the Saints that surprised even the Redskins. Every time you think the Redskins are a decent team (and believe me, that takes a helluva lot of imagination,) the Redskins roar back like a gang of crippled mice. Pick: St Louis.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. Arizona - For most of the season the Cardinals spent their time battling the Lions and Rayduhs for the worst team in the NFL status. The 49ers on the other hand, the laughingstocks the last two or three seasons running, are working their way up to nearly respectable. The key element here is the 49ers upset victory over the Seahawks in Seattle. That must mean they are headed for a downswing. Pick: Arizona.
DENVER (-1) vs. Cincinnati - America's Most Arrested Team did a good job convincing us they were on the upswing with several convincing performances in a row right after we'd got done writing them off. The Broncos well, what are they, changing quarterbacks in midseason? All I know is I don't want to have to witness another postseason wearing sunglasses to keep Mike Shanahan's teeth from blinding me and if they win this one, they're in the playoffs. So pray. Pick: Bengals.
San Diego (-3) vs. SEATTLE - This one, we say, is a no-brainer. Seattle has disappointed all season and the Chargers have been virtually immune to the rest of the league's inability to stay upright more than a few weeks in a row. The Chargers are everyone's pick for everything. Thus, this is my upset pick of the week. Pick: Seattle.
Monday night
TWO Monday night games, who is kidding whom? Oh right, it's Christmas. All the more reason to have TWO games on a Monday night.
DALLAS (-6½) vs. Philadelphia - Good Lawd, if you thought last week's NFC East bloodbath was big, an almost single elimination playoff in the toughest division, get excited about this one even more. Here's the clincher: Tony Romo, the accolades for whom have made me literally sick to my stomach several times this season, the man everyone is shoving each other to get first in line to say MEME, I PREDICTED HIS GREATNESS FIRST, is going up against a guy who is everyone's second choice as QB in Philly. Question is, how much does Jeff Garcia look like a 1972 Earl Morrell? Well, not much but in a matchup of heralded versus reviled QBs, the underenthused will prevail. Pick: Iggles.
N.Y. Jets (+2) vs MIAMI - Easy does it now. The Jets have surprised everyone including their most ardent supporters. The Dolphins have disappointed an even greater sum. The Dolphins upset the Pats one week and then lose by an almost equal margin against the Bills no less. In the scheme of ups and downs, the Jets are do for a down, the Dolphins due for an up. Pick: Miami.
Last week: 7-9 (following a predictable pattern)
Season: 102-116-4
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Three Shocking Things About Week 15
1. Panthers Don't Show Up: A few weeks ago Carolina Panther Keyshawn Johnson, the ultimate barometer of team psyche, was quoted along the lines that losing the particular match that week would be like driving the car off of the bridge. The Panthers lost and sure enough, it would appear the team bus when a drownin' because it wasn't a John Fox team out there getting humiliated like 37-3 that, was it?
Chris Weinke, starting for lack of a better alternative for the second straight week because of Jake Delhomme's thumb injury, threw for 170 yards and an interception and was sacked five times for the Panthers (6-8), who lost their fourth straight game and rank as one of the NFL season's biggest disappointments.
2. NFC Ist Dreck
Bears almost blow a massive lead to Tampa Bay and need an OT FG to win - this is supposd to be the NFC's finest and they were playing a team with a one-legged offence. Still they somehow almost lost the game. Then the Saints humiliate themselves at home against the lowly Redskins who no one mistook for a playoff team all season. As noted above, the Panthers, alot of peoples' pre humiliate themselves even worse at home against the rising AFC Steelers. Seahawks losers to the 49ers. Vikings pummeled at home by the AFC Jets. Looks like nearly every NFC team with a dog in the race of the playoffs don't really deserve to have their dogs in the race after all. Unless it was all a one week long illusion. Hell, just a week ago, everyone was writing off the Cowboys and look what they did to the Falcons.
3. Bills Denounce Dolphins, 21-0
Seems to be not that long ago (a week ago?!) that the Dolphins were busy putting an historic pasting on the New England Patriots and making Tom Brady play one of his worst games in memory. Then they come to Buffalo, a place the Bills had trouble selling out, and get shutout. And let's not forget about the Bills because just a few short weeks after everyone turned out the lights of their playoff hopes they are bouncing back with a vengeance. It was Buffalo's first shutout since a 2003 season-opening 31-0 win over New England, and its first against the Dolphins since a 29-0 win in November of 1987. Most satisfying, perhaps, the win eliminated Buffalo's AFC East rival from postseason contention, with Miami dropping to 6-8.
Round And Abouts
I think that the Terrell Owens spitting on his opponent story is about the least shocking thing that's happened in the NFL this season. But give it to him that in this Corporate Dull league that wants squeaky clean heroes in a game of violent criminals, T.O. is by far the most flamboyant, disturbing anti-hero to leak out of the repressive ranks of the NFL in recent memory. He almost single-handedly wrecked an entire franchise's season last year and this year he's done just about everything from alleged suicide overdoses to sleeping with the football in the endzone to admitting he doesn't try very hard half the time to now, well, spitting. What ever will this lad do for an encore? Who knows, but you can bet his season won't end quietly.
Anyone notice the battle of the rookie QBs - Denver's Jay Cutler and Arizona's Matt Leinart? It was a little unfair of course - Cutler plays for a playoff-bound team and Leinart plays for a team that's just a sniff above the NCAA level. Or maybe that's an insult to the NCAA. Still, someday if Matt Leinart escapes his Dennis Green Hell (either by trade or free agency or Dennis Green getting fired and replaced by a REAL NFL coach,) these two might meet up one day for the Super Bowl. And if not, the Titans' Vince Young is always lurking right around the corner. The 2006 draft will go down as one of the best for NFL QBs since what, 1983?
So, a few weeks to go, no one really seems to want the lead and what's left to do but make wild guesses about the Playoffs again.
AFC -
1. Chargers
2. Colts
3. Ravens
4. Patriots
5. Jacksonville
6. Denver
NFC
1. Bears
2. Cowboys
3. Saints
4. Seahawks
5. Iggles
6. Giants
Round One:
Ravens over Denver
Jacksonville over Patriots
Saints over Giants
Iggles over Seahawks.
Round Two:
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Jacksonville
Iggles over Bears
Cowboys over Saints
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Chargers 24 Ravens 13
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Cowboys 33 Iggles 17
SUPERBOWL
Chargers 44 Cowboys 11
1. Panthers Don't Show Up: A few weeks ago Carolina Panther Keyshawn Johnson, the ultimate barometer of team psyche, was quoted along the lines that losing the particular match that week would be like driving the car off of the bridge. The Panthers lost and sure enough, it would appear the team bus when a drownin' because it wasn't a John Fox team out there getting humiliated like 37-3 that, was it?
"It's embarrassing. I feel bad for our owner, obviously, to have paid for the talent we displayed on the field,"receiver Keyshawn said.
Chris Weinke, starting for lack of a better alternative for the second straight week because of Jake Delhomme's thumb injury, threw for 170 yards and an interception and was sacked five times for the Panthers (6-8), who lost their fourth straight game and rank as one of the NFL season's biggest disappointments.
2. NFC Ist Dreck
Bears almost blow a massive lead to Tampa Bay and need an OT FG to win - this is supposd to be the NFC's finest and they were playing a team with a one-legged offence. Still they somehow almost lost the game. Then the Saints humiliate themselves at home against the lowly Redskins who no one mistook for a playoff team all season. As noted above, the Panthers, alot of peoples' pre humiliate themselves even worse at home against the rising AFC Steelers. Seahawks losers to the 49ers. Vikings pummeled at home by the AFC Jets. Looks like nearly every NFC team with a dog in the race of the playoffs don't really deserve to have their dogs in the race after all. Unless it was all a one week long illusion. Hell, just a week ago, everyone was writing off the Cowboys and look what they did to the Falcons.
3. Bills Denounce Dolphins, 21-0
Seems to be not that long ago (a week ago?!) that the Dolphins were busy putting an historic pasting on the New England Patriots and making Tom Brady play one of his worst games in memory. Then they come to Buffalo, a place the Bills had trouble selling out, and get shutout. And let's not forget about the Bills because just a few short weeks after everyone turned out the lights of their playoff hopes they are bouncing back with a vengeance. It was Buffalo's first shutout since a 2003 season-opening 31-0 win over New England, and its first against the Dolphins since a 29-0 win in November of 1987. Most satisfying, perhaps, the win eliminated Buffalo's AFC East rival from postseason contention, with Miami dropping to 6-8.
Round And Abouts
I think that the Terrell Owens spitting on his opponent story is about the least shocking thing that's happened in the NFL this season. But give it to him that in this Corporate Dull league that wants squeaky clean heroes in a game of violent criminals, T.O. is by far the most flamboyant, disturbing anti-hero to leak out of the repressive ranks of the NFL in recent memory. He almost single-handedly wrecked an entire franchise's season last year and this year he's done just about everything from alleged suicide overdoses to sleeping with the football in the endzone to admitting he doesn't try very hard half the time to now, well, spitting. What ever will this lad do for an encore? Who knows, but you can bet his season won't end quietly.
Anyone notice the battle of the rookie QBs - Denver's Jay Cutler and Arizona's Matt Leinart? It was a little unfair of course - Cutler plays for a playoff-bound team and Leinart plays for a team that's just a sniff above the NCAA level. Or maybe that's an insult to the NCAA. Still, someday if Matt Leinart escapes his Dennis Green Hell (either by trade or free agency or Dennis Green getting fired and replaced by a REAL NFL coach,) these two might meet up one day for the Super Bowl. And if not, the Titans' Vince Young is always lurking right around the corner. The 2006 draft will go down as one of the best for NFL QBs since what, 1983?
So, a few weeks to go, no one really seems to want the lead and what's left to do but make wild guesses about the Playoffs again.
AFC -
1. Chargers
2. Colts
3. Ravens
4. Patriots
5. Jacksonville
6. Denver
NFC
1. Bears
2. Cowboys
3. Saints
4. Seahawks
5. Iggles
6. Giants
Round One:
Ravens over Denver
Jacksonville over Patriots
Saints over Giants
Iggles over Seahawks.
Round Two:
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Jacksonville
Iggles over Bears
Cowboys over Saints
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Chargers 24 Ravens 13
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Cowboys 33 Iggles 17
SUPERBOWL
Chargers 44 Cowboys 11
Monday, December 11, 2006
Week Fifteen: Bandwagons, Who Needs 'Em?
How many teams have made a run for the top spot before falling miserably away in a matter of a week or two? Peeling away like rotting flesh from a decomposing bone?
The first runway model whose knees buckled were the Bears. Well, the Bears themselves have never really buckled save for a tiny glitch or two, it's been mostly Rex Grossman's doing. Still, after roaring to an intimidating 5-0 start, including outscoring their first two opponents by a 60-7 margin and becoming everyone's consensus most frightening team, the Bears nearly lost to the Cardinals in an embarassing MNF display, then did lose to the Dolphins, finally, after a bye week and a runaway against the 49ers, crunched the Giants and Jets in New Jersey before losing to New England at home and making everyone yawn at their chances. Where did they go on the radar? Oh, everyone blinded by the upstarts and forward-thinkers. But they are still around. Rex Grossman is still suspect but in reality, the Bears have remained strong on defence and special teams. They aren't better or worse than their 5-0 start but they aren't the 1985 Bears either.
Next up on the Everybody Wants a Piece of This Greatness gravy train were the Ravens. They crushed the Bucaneers 27-0 in their opener leaving everyone gasping, then allowed only 6 points against the Raiders, much to no one's surprise. Yes, suspect QB, like the Bears, but like the Bears, a brilliant defence. They won their first four culminating with a playoff preview victory over the Chargers. (this, when the Chargers were but a twinkle in everyone's eye...)and then the bottom fell out. Visible MNF loss to the Broncos followed by a loss to Carolina. Everyone threw up their hands. Billick fired his offensive coordinator. This team sucks. Then a bye week to lick their wounds, and they reel off New Orleans, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Suddenly the Ravens, mebbe, just mebbe. But not quite.
And whose fall has come quicker than the Colts? The Pretty Boyz had everyone whispering about greatest franchise that never even made it to the Super Bowl, thinking yet again about an undefeated season and after winning their first nine and causing all that giddy commotion, they've now lost three of their last four behind an Olé Rush Defence with everyone kicking them, spitting upon them whispering I told you so, gutless team with no character. That's what all those post season failures told us.
Then let's look at the Iggles. They were standing purdy with a 3-1 record and then inexplicably, they lost it. To New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville in a row and then lost their franchise QB. Just when everyone had written their obits, suddenly they win a few in a row and you remember, hey, this isn't such a bad team after all. But the road ahead is a brutal schedule. At Giants, at Dallas, host Falcons. Nah. Forget it, they're buried. And just when you've thrown the last shovelful of dirt upon them, who knows there they are standing.
Finally, the latest fad are the Chargers. Admittedly, this is a roaring bunch. Massive offence, frightening defence and game after game proving themselves. Will they too fall in the three weeks to come, stumble out of momentum and return to their underdog status, or will they continue to run the table, make our heads spin, keep us guessing?
You could argue similarly for teams like the Saints but nothing was really ever expected of the Saints. Same with the Cowbys. And maybe the Giants. And the Bengals, nah, they haven't looked impressive all season save for the last few weeks now that it counts.
It boils down to every team, save for the Lions, Cardinals, Raiders and Bucs have looked impressive or quasi-impressive at one point or another this season and equally, they've had their falls from grace. That's why you won't see any over-the-top predictions about the Super Bowl from this quarter.
Random Notes
Dolphins 5-1 since week 9
Say what you want about another boorish performance/revelation from Terrell Owens, the coach-killer's coach killer: it wasn't TO out there giving up 42 points against the Saints.
Simple formula: Edgerrin James, 100 yards rushing two games in a row, Cardinals 2-0.
Simple forumla II: Chris Weinke, whose 1-15 record coming into the game was the worst of any current quarterback with at least 10 career starts.
Countdown: Three weeks to go and Brett Favre needs seven touchdown passes to throw to tie Dan Marino. On the Packers' final first-half drive, Favre reached 3,000 yards passing and extended two NFL records: Most overall seasons with 3,000 and most consecutive seasons with 3,000?(both 15).
In games when Favre compiles at least a 100.0 rating, the Packers are 4-0 this season, and 73-7 (.913) all-time. They're 40-0 at home (1.000) and 33-7 (.825) on the road. He has thrown for at least one TD pass in eight of his last nine games. Next three opponents: Detroit, Minnesota, at Chicago. And in 13 games, they have surrendered 19, 13 and 8 touchdown passes, respectively. Looks like Favre might have to play one more season.
On a Crazy Legs QB tilt: Michael Vick has rushed for 934 yards, 35 away from Bobby Douglass' 34-year-old record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a season. He needs 66 to become the first quarterback to run for 1,000 in a season. Will he get it against the Cowboys?
As for this week's games:
THIRSTY NIGHT
SEATTLE (-9½) vs. San Francisco - Forecasts are calling for rain and high winds in Seattle on Thursday night. There is a 100 percent chance of precipitation, with half an inch of rain expected to fall. He who builds his Ark of Frank Gores or Shawn Alexanders quicker, wins. SEAhawks. SEAttle. Sea, sea, sea - get the picture? Pick: Seattle.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Dallas (-3) vs. ATLANTA - Michael Vick continues to baffle. One week great, one week the King of Mediocre. And with Vick, so go the Falcons. Two good performances, two victories. On the other hand, Tony Romo finally broke his NFL cherry with a sad and disappointing display.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Pick; Dallas.
SUNDAYS
BALTIMORE (-11½) vs. Cleveland - The Browns, who have lost eight consecutive road games to division opponents, are trying to avoid a winless season against AFC North teams. They lost 27-7 to Pittsburgh on Dec. 7, dropping their division record to 0-5. Pick: Baltimore.
GREEN BAY (-5) vs. Detroit - Favre has never lost to Detroit (2-11) at home since being traded to Green Bay (5-8) before the 1992 season.The three-time MVP has thrown for 3,409 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions during the win streak, and also led the Packers to a home playoff win over the Lions in 1994. Pick: Green Bay.
NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. Houston - Gillette Stadium has not provided New England with the same home-field advantage this season as it has in previous years. The Patriots entered this season with wins in 22 of their last 25 home games, but are 4-3 at Gillette this year. Pick: Houston.
Jacksonville (-3) vs. TENNESSEE - Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tennessee. For the third time in 2006 and the fourth time in the last 13 months, Vince Young graces the weekly cover of Sports Illustrated in the wake of his 39-yard touchdown run Sunday in the Titans' 26-20 overtime win over the Texans at Reliant Stadium. SI JINX? Pick: Tennessee.
BUFFALO (-2) vs. Miami - Enthusiasm for the Bills appears to be waning. Despite both teams having outside playoff chances, by Monday, The Buffalo Bills said today that about 6,800 tickets remain for Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Pick: Miami
MINNESOTA (-3) vs. N.Y. Jets - The Vikings have the NFL's top-ranked run defense, giving up 703 yards on the ground through 13 games — an average of 54.1 yards which means Chad Pennington will have to win it for the Jets. Pick: Jets.
N.Y. GIANTS (-6) vs. Philadelphia - Tiki Barber enjoys tormenting the Eagles. He’s rushed for 915 yards in his last eight starts against the Birds, an average of 114.4 yards per game. In only two of those games has he failed to reach 100 yards. What’s encouraging is the Eagles limited Barber to just 51 yards on 21 rushes in their last meeting, a paltry 2.4-yard average. Pick: Philly.
Pittsburgh (-2½) vs. CAROLINA - The quick picture: one team with a QB whose downward spiral is almost as puzzling as his unmitigated success the season before, for a pair of weeks on the way back up with a Sysyphian task ahead of them, the other, a team whose QB is all thumbs and injured with barely hope to speculate upon yet still existing in the league where even a team with a losing record might become a wildcard. The Steelers did it last year, making the run no one expected. Could the Panthers do the same? Pick: Carolina
CHICAGO (-13) vs. Tampa Bay - Oh, here's an easy one. That's what you think most weeks before you're bashed on the head by parity. Pick: Da Bears.
NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. Washington - Momentum for this season's wonder boys. Joe Gibbs is busy planning on what will go wrong next year already. Pick: New Orleans.
Denver (-2) vs. ARIZONA (41½) - How rich, a battle between two rookie QBs, both of whom are exactly about where we expected them to be by this time in the season. Pick: Denver.
SAN DIEGO (-7½) vs. Kansas City - One of these days, the other shoe is going to drop on the Chargers. Either that, or they're on a roll all the way to the Super Bowl. Pick: KC. (my upset special)
OAKLAND (-1½) vs. St. Louis - C'mon, the Rayduhs? Pick: St Louis.
MNF
INDIANAPOLIS (-3½) vs. Cincinnati - Well, this is unusual twist to the Colts' season in that their downfall is coming a few weeks early. The logic of this season in the NFL is that if you're on a roll, you're going to be knocked off it and if you're flailing, you'll rise up to meet your righteous destiny. Pick: Cincinnati.
How many teams have made a run for the top spot before falling miserably away in a matter of a week or two? Peeling away like rotting flesh from a decomposing bone?
The first runway model whose knees buckled were the Bears. Well, the Bears themselves have never really buckled save for a tiny glitch or two, it's been mostly Rex Grossman's doing. Still, after roaring to an intimidating 5-0 start, including outscoring their first two opponents by a 60-7 margin and becoming everyone's consensus most frightening team, the Bears nearly lost to the Cardinals in an embarassing MNF display, then did lose to the Dolphins, finally, after a bye week and a runaway against the 49ers, crunched the Giants and Jets in New Jersey before losing to New England at home and making everyone yawn at their chances. Where did they go on the radar? Oh, everyone blinded by the upstarts and forward-thinkers. But they are still around. Rex Grossman is still suspect but in reality, the Bears have remained strong on defence and special teams. They aren't better or worse than their 5-0 start but they aren't the 1985 Bears either.
Next up on the Everybody Wants a Piece of This Greatness gravy train were the Ravens. They crushed the Bucaneers 27-0 in their opener leaving everyone gasping, then allowed only 6 points against the Raiders, much to no one's surprise. Yes, suspect QB, like the Bears, but like the Bears, a brilliant defence. They won their first four culminating with a playoff preview victory over the Chargers. (this, when the Chargers were but a twinkle in everyone's eye...)and then the bottom fell out. Visible MNF loss to the Broncos followed by a loss to Carolina. Everyone threw up their hands. Billick fired his offensive coordinator. This team sucks. Then a bye week to lick their wounds, and they reel off New Orleans, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Suddenly the Ravens, mebbe, just mebbe. But not quite.
And whose fall has come quicker than the Colts? The Pretty Boyz had everyone whispering about greatest franchise that never even made it to the Super Bowl, thinking yet again about an undefeated season and after winning their first nine and causing all that giddy commotion, they've now lost three of their last four behind an Olé Rush Defence with everyone kicking them, spitting upon them whispering I told you so, gutless team with no character. That's what all those post season failures told us.
Then let's look at the Iggles. They were standing purdy with a 3-1 record and then inexplicably, they lost it. To New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville in a row and then lost their franchise QB. Just when everyone had written their obits, suddenly they win a few in a row and you remember, hey, this isn't such a bad team after all. But the road ahead is a brutal schedule. At Giants, at Dallas, host Falcons. Nah. Forget it, they're buried. And just when you've thrown the last shovelful of dirt upon them, who knows there they are standing.
Finally, the latest fad are the Chargers. Admittedly, this is a roaring bunch. Massive offence, frightening defence and game after game proving themselves. Will they too fall in the three weeks to come, stumble out of momentum and return to their underdog status, or will they continue to run the table, make our heads spin, keep us guessing?
You could argue similarly for teams like the Saints but nothing was really ever expected of the Saints. Same with the Cowbys. And maybe the Giants. And the Bengals, nah, they haven't looked impressive all season save for the last few weeks now that it counts.
It boils down to every team, save for the Lions, Cardinals, Raiders and Bucs have looked impressive or quasi-impressive at one point or another this season and equally, they've had their falls from grace. That's why you won't see any over-the-top predictions about the Super Bowl from this quarter.
Random Notes
Dolphins 5-1 since week 9
Say what you want about another boorish performance/revelation from Terrell Owens, the coach-killer's coach killer: it wasn't TO out there giving up 42 points against the Saints.
Simple formula: Edgerrin James, 100 yards rushing two games in a row, Cardinals 2-0.
Simple forumla II: Chris Weinke, whose 1-15 record coming into the game was the worst of any current quarterback with at least 10 career starts.
Countdown: Three weeks to go and Brett Favre needs seven touchdown passes to throw to tie Dan Marino. On the Packers' final first-half drive, Favre reached 3,000 yards passing and extended two NFL records: Most overall seasons with 3,000 and most consecutive seasons with 3,000?(both 15).
In games when Favre compiles at least a 100.0 rating, the Packers are 4-0 this season, and 73-7 (.913) all-time. They're 40-0 at home (1.000) and 33-7 (.825) on the road. He has thrown for at least one TD pass in eight of his last nine games. Next three opponents: Detroit, Minnesota, at Chicago. And in 13 games, they have surrendered 19, 13 and 8 touchdown passes, respectively. Looks like Favre might have to play one more season.
On a Crazy Legs QB tilt: Michael Vick has rushed for 934 yards, 35 away from Bobby Douglass' 34-year-old record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a season. He needs 66 to become the first quarterback to run for 1,000 in a season. Will he get it against the Cowboys?
As for this week's games:
THIRSTY NIGHT
SEATTLE (-9½) vs. San Francisco - Forecasts are calling for rain and high winds in Seattle on Thursday night. There is a 100 percent chance of precipitation, with half an inch of rain expected to fall. He who builds his Ark of Frank Gores or Shawn Alexanders quicker, wins. SEAhawks. SEAttle. Sea, sea, sea - get the picture? Pick: Seattle.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Dallas (-3) vs. ATLANTA - Michael Vick continues to baffle. One week great, one week the King of Mediocre. And with Vick, so go the Falcons. Two good performances, two victories. On the other hand, Tony Romo finally broke his NFL cherry with a sad and disappointing display.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Pick; Dallas.
SUNDAYS
BALTIMORE (-11½) vs. Cleveland - The Browns, who have lost eight consecutive road games to division opponents, are trying to avoid a winless season against AFC North teams. They lost 27-7 to Pittsburgh on Dec. 7, dropping their division record to 0-5. Pick: Baltimore.
GREEN BAY (-5) vs. Detroit - Favre has never lost to Detroit (2-11) at home since being traded to Green Bay (5-8) before the 1992 season.The three-time MVP has thrown for 3,409 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions during the win streak, and also led the Packers to a home playoff win over the Lions in 1994. Pick: Green Bay.
NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. Houston - Gillette Stadium has not provided New England with the same home-field advantage this season as it has in previous years. The Patriots entered this season with wins in 22 of their last 25 home games, but are 4-3 at Gillette this year. Pick: Houston.
Jacksonville (-3) vs. TENNESSEE - Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tennessee. For the third time in 2006 and the fourth time in the last 13 months, Vince Young graces the weekly cover of Sports Illustrated in the wake of his 39-yard touchdown run Sunday in the Titans' 26-20 overtime win over the Texans at Reliant Stadium. SI JINX? Pick: Tennessee.
BUFFALO (-2) vs. Miami - Enthusiasm for the Bills appears to be waning. Despite both teams having outside playoff chances, by Monday, The Buffalo Bills said today that about 6,800 tickets remain for Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Pick: Miami
MINNESOTA (-3) vs. N.Y. Jets - The Vikings have the NFL's top-ranked run defense, giving up 703 yards on the ground through 13 games — an average of 54.1 yards which means Chad Pennington will have to win it for the Jets. Pick: Jets.
N.Y. GIANTS (-6) vs. Philadelphia - Tiki Barber enjoys tormenting the Eagles. He’s rushed for 915 yards in his last eight starts against the Birds, an average of 114.4 yards per game. In only two of those games has he failed to reach 100 yards. What’s encouraging is the Eagles limited Barber to just 51 yards on 21 rushes in their last meeting, a paltry 2.4-yard average. Pick: Philly.
Pittsburgh (-2½) vs. CAROLINA - The quick picture: one team with a QB whose downward spiral is almost as puzzling as his unmitigated success the season before, for a pair of weeks on the way back up with a Sysyphian task ahead of them, the other, a team whose QB is all thumbs and injured with barely hope to speculate upon yet still existing in the league where even a team with a losing record might become a wildcard. The Steelers did it last year, making the run no one expected. Could the Panthers do the same? Pick: Carolina
CHICAGO (-13) vs. Tampa Bay - Oh, here's an easy one. That's what you think most weeks before you're bashed on the head by parity. Pick: Da Bears.
NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. Washington - Momentum for this season's wonder boys. Joe Gibbs is busy planning on what will go wrong next year already. Pick: New Orleans.
Denver (-2) vs. ARIZONA (41½) - How rich, a battle between two rookie QBs, both of whom are exactly about where we expected them to be by this time in the season. Pick: Denver.
SAN DIEGO (-7½) vs. Kansas City - One of these days, the other shoe is going to drop on the Chargers. Either that, or they're on a roll all the way to the Super Bowl. Pick: KC. (my upset special)
OAKLAND (-1½) vs. St. Louis - C'mon, the Rayduhs? Pick: St Louis.
MNF
INDIANAPOLIS (-3½) vs. Cincinnati - Well, this is unusual twist to the Colts' season in that their downfall is coming a few weeks early. The logic of this season in the NFL is that if you're on a roll, you're going to be knocked off it and if you're flailing, you'll rise up to meet your righteous destiny. Pick: Cincinnati.
