Monday, October 04, 2004

Post Season Here We Come!
"It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes. But the half-wit remains a half-wit, and the emperor remains an emperor." Neil Gaiman's Sandman

NLDS:

Braves-Astros: Three things jump out at one straight away: The Astros were baseball's hottest team since mid-August, going 36-10. The Astros one-two starting combination of Clemens & Oswalt went 38-14 with a 3.25, and lastly, the Astros have been knocked out of the postseason three times by the Braves, in '97, '99 and 2001. A few other fringe factors to consider: the last two champions have been wild card teams and the Braves have, ultimately, have disappointed in the post season. Since 2000, they've won 8 and lost 13 in the postseason and have been knocked out of the first round the last two times running. It would appear the writing on the wall couldn't be any clearer. Astros in four

*****

Cardinals-Dodgers: How in the world did the Dodgers reach the postseason for the first time since 1996? You could point to a late July trade that saw the Dodgers send away their top set-up man (Guillermo Mota) and their most popular clubhouse guy and best catcher (Paul LoDuca) in return for a starting pitcher (Brad Penny) who has spent the majority of the second half on the disabled list, a Korean first baseman and a minor league pitcher. This isn't usually the type of trade the trigger is pulled on for a team that wants to make it to the postseason. But somehow, none of it seemed to matter. The Dodgers are put together by tape, string, determination and an inability to quit. They've got a good bullpen and good defence. Perhaps most indicative of their character however, is that the Dodgers are 13-4 in extra inning games, by far the best record in MLB. They are also 32-16 in one run games this season, the best in MLB. In other words, it's best to knock the Dodgers out early and keep them out. But they've had 53 come-from-behind wins and almost unbelievably, 26 of their comeback wins have come in the final at-bat. This is not a team of quitters.

In four previous trips to the postseason, LaRussa's alleged managerial mastery has not led them even as far as the World Series. In 1987, the Cardinals, pre-LaRussa, like this season, had the best record in the National League. They lost the World Series to the Twins. The question now is, will they make it as far again?

The one thing you might say the Cardinals have in their favour is that they appear to have the impression they aren't respected, despite having the best record in baseball. The Cubs, who didn't even MAKE the playoffs, certainly never respected them. The Astros, whom have beaten the Cards 10 of 18 head-to-head games, don't appear to respect them and it would appear that despite all their victories and their formidable batting lineup, it is still difficult to take the Cardinals seriously.

The Cards will have to knock the Dodgers out and knock them out fast, otherwise, they probably won't last. Interesting to note however that in August, the last times these two teams met, three in St Louis and three in LA, four of those six games were one-run games and the Cards took two of them. Look for alot of 7-6 and 8-7 games.

Cardinals in four

*****

ALDS:

Angels-RedSox: Ah, what could be more exciting than the Whinge Nation versus the Rally Monkey? The number two payroll in baseball against the number three payroll in baseball? A team that hasn't won a World Series in 86 years and a team that hasn't won a World Series in uh, two years?

There is a bottom line to this series and that is one starting pitcher worth two victories, Curt Schilling. Yes, the Angels have Sports Amnesia's AL MVP in Vladimir Guerrero, yes the Angels have a formidable and fireballing bullpen led by Francisco Rodriguez, who has struck out 123 batters in 84 innings. Yes, the Angels have rid themselves of the team cancer that was Jose Guillen. But they also lost his bat, they also have an aging, ailing lineup behind Vlad and they also have little to no starting pitching to speak of. Two years ago, they were able to do it anyway, under similar circumstances but this time, the element of surprise is gone.

Red Sox in 4

*****

Twins-Yankees: Only a year ago, the Twins and a pitcher named Johan Santana came into Yankee Stadium and shocked the Yankees by taking Game 1 from them. The Yankees then woke up and swept the next three to win the series.

The Twins are no longer wet behind the ears and the Yankees will no longer take the Twins lightly. Santana is the hottest pitcher in baseball but he will only be pitching two of the five games should this series go the distance.

One thing to remember when listening to the chest beating Bomber fans about the Yankees recent sweep of the Twins is that both Santana and Radke were limited to five inning outings since the Twins had already clinched their playoff spot. They won't be this time around.

The talk every postseason is legitimately about Mariano Rivera however, Twins closer Joe Nathan's ERA, WHIP, hits allowed and strikeouts this season were better than Rivera's. And there is nice righty-lefty combination to set him up. Lefty Juan Rincon has struck out 106 batters in 82.0 innings and righty J.C. Romero went 7-4 with 68 K's in 73.0 innings.

You can't discount Yankee bats, Yankee pride, and Yankee experience. They have homefield advantage and the best record in baseball at home.

This David and Goliath matchup could be a very tight and exciting series.

Yankees in five

*****

Later predictions:

One way or another, Game One of the World Series will see Roger Clemens pitching against his former teammates.

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