WILDCARD WEEKEND

Despite a rather embarassing performance predicting the final weekend of the NFL regular season, Sports Amnesia is back again with wild and wacky predictions for the first round of the playoffs involving the wild card submissions and the lesser-rans of the division winners.

At least the prediction of a Giants-Steelers Super Bowl is still intact and will remain so for at least another week since neither are playing this weekend.

For once, we can be thankful for a Patriot-less post-season.

EVERYONE is going against the home teams in these matchups, primarily because the wild cards would appear hotter or stronger than the likes of the Fins, Cardinals, Vikings or Chargers. Danger in unanimity, is what this crystal ball says. All the home teams are underdogs.

Since the advent of the 12-team format in 1990, home squads are 50-22 on wild-card weekend. Never have all four lost.

SATURDAY



ATLANTA AT ARIZONA: The Falcons, along with the Fins are two of the biggest turn-around teams in NFL history, rising from the dregs of the league to playoff spots. The Falcons have done this with a great running game and a rookie QB, namely Charger-reject Michael Turner and Matt Ryan.

Arizona has done it with an ageing Jesus Freak QB in Kurt Warner, some great wideouts and an unimpressive defence. In fact, the defence yielded 79 more points during the regular season than any of the other playoff teams. This points to the Cards being simply incapable of stopping the Falcons.

The Cardinals are 12-4 at home under coach Ken Whisenhunt.

Cardinals defence has been aggressive, despite not being all that impressive overall, claiming 30 turnovers this season but the Fantasy-stat offence gave up 30 turnovers as well. They have virtually no answer for the Falcons running game and frankly, if the Falcons stick to running the ball which is what they do best, they should beat the Cards into gradual submission.

Prediction: Falcons 31 Cardinals 26

*****


INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO

In week 12,the host Chargers tied the game in the fourth quarter, but left 1:35 on the clock for Peyton Manning, who drove the Colts 35 yards downfield to set up Adam Vinatieri's 51-yard field goal as time expired.

Count on this game being equally tight. Despite the mysterious underperformance of the Chargers for most of the season, the Chargers are still a dangerous team offensively and they proved this in part, by storming back to overtake the Broncos' three game lead and win the division.

The Chargers have scored 52, 41, 22 and 34 points over their last four games. It isn't likely the Colts have an answer defensively even though their defence has performed admirably since their bye week so it would appear this game will simply be a matter of who has the ball last.

Over his last four games, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers has completed 64.7 of his passes for 1,054 yards and a 123.5 passer rating with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Incredibly, Manning has been even better in that time, with 1,054 passing yards, an 85.6 completion percentage and a 135.7 passer rating to go with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.

The issue of course is that Manning is Manning and will not be stopped, not even on the road and it is Manning who shifts the balance in what might be an epic playoff game.

Prediction: Colts 28 Chargers 26

*****

SUNDAY


BALTIMORE AT MIAMI

Naturally, the first order of business is the Ravens Defence. Only one team in the NFL was statistically better and the Ravens are the kind of defence that can bust anyone up but good. They force alot of turnovers but so does the Dolphins' rather underrated defence. Difference is, the Dolphins turn it over offensively far less than does this Colts offence led by rookie QB Joe Flacco.

Nonetheless, in Week 7 this season, the Ravens beat the Dolphins, 27-13, to snap a three-game losing streak. Baltimore stopped Miami's "Wildcat" offense, holding the Dolphins to 71 yards on the ground.

Does the combination of a weak-armed Miami QB and a terrific tag-team running game offset the Ravens' Defence? They say D wins games this time of year along with a running game - they don't say much about a rookie QB. Since 1970, rookie quarterbacks are 2-6 in playoff games

Prediction: Dolphins 26 Ravens 20

*****


PHILLY AT MINNESOTA

This games angle is that Eagles coach Andy Reid meets his former offensive coordinator Brad Childress.

The Iggles rose from the dead several times this season, notably after Donovan McNabb's miserable performance against the Ravens in Week 12, then a crappy showing in a loss against the Redskins in Week 16.

The most dangerous weapon (and perhaps only serious weapon) the Vikings have is Adrian Peterson who was held to just 70 yards in his only game vs. the Eagles last year.

The Iggles defence can be deadly and if Peterson is cut off the Vikes are stuck relying upon two lackluster QBs to save them. Doesn't sound good. Potentially, the biggest rout of the wildcard weekend:

Prediction: Iggles 48 Vikings 17

So my strongest prediction is that not ALL road teams will win this weekend. It just doesn't make sense, historically.