No Hundred Years War, but England To Meet France In Their Opener

There were many possible scenarios for the English side prior to this morning's draw for the groupings of the Euro 2004. Probably the worst case scenario was what happened to Germany, the unlucky nation from the second pot of four who were the ones getting stuck with Holland. Going into this draw, one knew straight away that whomever got stuck with Holland was going to have the toughest group because it meant Holland plus a number one seed to battle against.

England could have been stuck, in theory, with France AND Holland. Conversely, they could have lucked out an drew Sweden, Latvia and Russia as well. So other than not getting Holland from the third pot which would have sealed a group of death, the other main concern for England was obviously not to get stuck with France. They did, and they drew France as the opening match of the tournament for both nations. Sunday the 13th at the Stadium of Light in Lisboa.

In theory, England might be happy, having drawn France that they drew them as the first match of their ride. On the other hand, France, having been upset already in the opening match of the World Cup two summers ago, will not only take England more seriously than they did Senegal, but will clearly have the motivation of having something to prove as well since they were humiliated in the 2002 World Cup already and do not want a repeat performance. They've shown their resolve with a perfect qualifying record, quite a feat over 8 matches, even if it was only the likes of Cyprus, Malta, Israel and Slovenia.

Realistically, England would be happy with a draw against France, which would be enough, in a likelihood, to propel them into the second round, perhaps against Spain or Portugal. Following France, they'll meet Switzerland and then Croatia both teams they should be able to beat, in theory anyway and perhaps even on paper. I don't get any wild fantasies about Switzerland going very far. Sure, they won their qualifying group but let's face it: a qualifying group of Russia, Ireland, Georgia and Albania, is hardly a gauntlet to run. Sven says ""Swiss football is progressing very quickly - at youth level they are very strong. The Yakin brothers have been excellent for FC Basle, and Stephane Chapuisat is still a dangerous striker." but this is a lot of diplomatic bullshit. Switzerland are not scary. Perhaps compared to Latvia they are, but England should beat them readily.

Croatia are a good side with alot of young talent that have potential if they're given their chance, to create unwanted surprises. Should England lose to France, this match, in my mind, the final of the first round in Coimbra, is key. Sven notes here that "We played Croatia recently and even though we won 3-1 the Croatians showed that they are a good team. Teams from Eastern Europe do tend to be technically very solid, physically strong and are very very good at keeping hold of the ball. Their passing game is often frustrating because they can keep to ball for so long! I think that they are good - they beat Slovenia away to qualify and that is not easy so maybe they can do well in Portugal."

The early odds have England rated fifth behind France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Considering they have to play France first and then would likely face either Portugal or Spain in the second round, depending on which one finishes first in the group. Then again, let's not count Greece out too quickly. Greece are my darkhorse team. Given Spain's history of dismal performances in tournaments and given Portugal's outrageous underachieving in the World Cup, you might see Greece squeak into second place and qualify for the next round, perhaps against France, which would leave England stuck playing Portugal in Lisboa. Not a good taste.

Local Derbys In Portugal

You might look at them as derbys, given the hatred and rivalry sure to sweat out of these nations when they meet. My favorite one will be Germany-Holland. It's a big bias but if Dick Advocaat uses his head again and keeps the Dutch team young and hungry by leaving the egomaniacs and lazy mercenary stars on the bench like he did in that second match against Scotland, I don't think Germany will win this match. In fact, they will lose this match because they are still too old and uninspired. Yes, the Germans aren't bad tournament players. They know what it takes to win in these tournaments but I don't see the demonstrations that they are so much better than they were in Euro2000. The best result would be a severe and demoralizing thrashing because if Holland wish to advance, they are most certainly going to have to beat Germany to do it. This is the first match of their group and will be followed quickly by Holland having to try and overcome a Czech team that already humiliated them once in the qualifiers while Germany will toying with Latvia. So a victory by Holland over Germany is the key to their chances.

Spain-Portugal: More neighbors facing each other straight away in the first round. Spain beat Portugal in a friendly in September, in Portugal, it should be noted, by a 3-0 margin. Sure "just" a friendly but don't doubt that Spain are always eager to kick down their lesser cousins. Unfortunately for Portugal, this match comes at the end of the round with both teams likely equal unless Greece happens to pull off an upset early on. Greece will face Portugal in the opening match of the tournament and frankly, the pressure on Portugal might be a little too daunting. Greece might very well earn a draw, keeping them on pace for a spot into the second round. Spain, who plays Greece only after meeting a Russian team that will lucky to come away with a point in this tournament, will not be as prone to upset. They are better than Greece and they are better than Russia and by then, they will be better than Portugal.

Denmark-Sweden: Peter Schmeichel seemed a little unhappy in the draw that Denmark got, having to face both Sweden and Italy as well as Bulgaria. He noted that he was worried this grouping was even more severe than the Germany, Czech, Holland Group but frankly, I don't think Sweden are going to make it out of the round and Latvia, even though they beat Turkey to get here, are everyone's best bet for worst team of the tournament. Yes, Italy will be strong and probably unbeatable but

My take on how it all pans out is like this:

GROUP A:

Portugal and Greece tie the opener. Spain win their first two matches and draw against Portugal. Spain first with 7 points, Portugal second with 5 points.

GROUP B:

France will beat England handily in the first match but England will be able to crawl back against Switzerland and Croatia to make it as the second place finisher.

GROUP C:

Italy is the class of the group and will coast through unmolested leaving Sweden and Denmark to battle it out while Bulgaria tries to sneak up on everyone. Denmark, Sweden and Bulgaria all won their qualifying groups and frankly, Sweden, having to play Poland and Hungary, had the toughest entry. Sweden will defeat Denmark, just as Schmeichel seems convinced, and Bulgaria is my bet to pull of a series of ties and earn in over Sweden for the second place spot.

GROUP D:

One would hope that Germany are pummeled not only by Holland but by the Czech Republic, as well, avenging their Euro 1996 Finals loss. The Czechs are the class of this group and even though Holland, playing to potential, could beat them as easily as they themselves were beaten by the Czechs in the qualifying round, they have some sort of disease when it comes to playing in pressure over the years. The finish will be the Czechs and then the Dutch.

This leaves the following second round matches:

Spain to play England which is a match that England could seriously win, even if Spain are confident by having made topped the host nation in the opening round. England, playing better defence, win 2-1.

Portugal would then have the misfortune of meeting France and France, who beat them on penalties the last time around in 2000, will not have as tough a time at it, winning 3-1.

Italy would then face the Dutch in what could theoretically be a beautiful match with the strong Italian defence facing the firepower of the Dutch. Italy win, 1-0, as they win all their bloody matches.

Finally, Bulgaria would face the Czech Republic and would defeat them.

Sadly, England then plays Italy. Italy breaks-a-their little hearts, winning on penalties.

France and Bulgaria meet and perhaps this time, Bulgaria pull out an upset and lose to Italy in the finals.

Crazy speculation but let's face it: after the craziness and unpredictability of the World Cup, who is going to guess that there might not be a big suprise making it to the final?