BASEBALL 2005
"When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers." - Oscar Wilde

Is it possible to overhype? Two years ago, the Yankees broke Red Sox hearts with an Aaron Boone homer and the rivalry raged another notch higher with the Pedro-Zimmer toss down. Last year, the Yankees broke their own hearts, choking down four straight losses to the Red Sox after a 3-0 lead in the ALCS and as a result, we've had to endure a winter and spring of the most obnoxious winners in baseball history; the Red Sox and their fans. Even though we don't have to hear any more wailing about the Curse of the Bambino, this season will begin in histrionic fashion with the Yankees opening their season against the Red Sox tonight and the expectation is that the Yankees and Red Sox will face each other again in the 2005 ALCS.

This exectation of course, presupposes that the wild card will come from the AL East. The funny thing about the Wild Card is that the last three World Champions, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins and 2004 Red Sox have all been wild cards. So pay attention to your wild card picks. One of them has a very good chance of winning the World Series.

For the first time since 1919, the Red Sox will begin the season as defending World Champions. If you're curious about what the world was like the last time the Red Sox were winners, have a look. Boston might have even been still reeling from their Molasses Disaster.

Just for the record, the Red Sox didn't fare much better, finishing 6th in the American League despite opening the season with a 10-0 victory over the Yankees at the Polo Grounds with Babe Ruth still on their team.

It's also perhaps interesting that the 1919 season concluded with one of baseball's biggest scandals, the Black Sox Series, the last time the other Sox made it to the World Series. And those Sox haven't won since.

Red Sox fans will probably tell you they're satisfied with losing Pedro and Derek Lowe and replacing them with the dodgy-backed David Wells and the dodgy location of Matt Clement and might become even happier with Wade Miller, but don't let them fool you. Wells, Clement and Miller is not The Unit, Carl Pavano and Jared Wright. Not that it matters anyway because my craziest prediction in a year already heavy-laden with misguided predictions is that the 2005 ALCS will not be a repeat of 2003 and 2004. The Yankees have never proven that throwing money at a problem is the solution and the Red Sox have never proven they can win two consecutive World Championships.

AL East

The two winningest pitchers in the NL East last season are now in the AL East (Pavano and Wright). Pedro is out of the AL East for the first time since playing for the NL East Expos in 1997. The Unit is back in the American League for the first time since 1998. Sammy Sosa is back in the American League for the first time since 1992 and joins Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield as AL East sluggers now that Carlos Delgado is out. A-Rod is the official punching bag of Red Sox fans and David Wells will open the season pitching against his once-beloved Yankees. The AL East has finished in the same order for the last six seasons. That's Yanks-RedSox-BlueJays-Orioles-DevilRays. Six years in row. It's a good thing there's such a tight rivalry at the top because this would become ho-hum otherwise. Weird, unexpected things happen in baseball every season but seven years in a row? Why not? Predicted finish:

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

AL Central

Another predictable finish for the last several years has been the Twins at the top of the AL Central. That's 2002, 2003 and 2004, if you're counting. Other than the A's, the Twins are one of baseball's best anomalies; a team with a low payroll but a consistent record for winning.

Shoestring budgets only go so far though and the thing is, the Twins keep getting knocked out by the Yankees. They are quite capable at beating up on their brethren in the AL Central but the thing about the AL Central is as the traditional weakling of the AL, it's an all or nothing division. In fact, since the birth of the wild card 1995, the AL Central has never had a wild card entry.

The AL East has produced the wild card seven times (5 by the Red Sox alone) and three from the AL West.

If the Twins, as three time repeating champs, are locks to win their fourth straight division title, the only question worth pondering thereafter is whether or not the Indians, White Sox, Tigers or Royals will produce the AL wildcard. The answer is: not bloody likely although that probability didn't stop the Tigers from signing Magglio Ordonez and closer Troy Percival as free agents. It didn't stop the White Sox from throwing in the towel on their power game and deciding to immitate the Twins' winning formula of defence and pitching. It won't stop the Indians from having a good, young team that's on the move but not quite ready for prime time and it won't stop the Royals from returning to their usual position as a divisional afterthought.

Predicted finish:

1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Indians
4. Tigers
5. Royals

AL West

Yeahyeah, with the free agent signings of Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexton, the Mariners made alot of splashing noises to drown out the dull roar of a horrific season last year. And yeahyeah, the Oakland A's traded two of their three aces. But at the end of the day, these simple observations won't prevent the A's from finishing better than the Mariners.

The problem for both of them is that they will be the two worst teams in the AL West this season so the only battle they will have is who finishes last and who finishes second to last. This is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim's division to lose despite their absurdist new name, and the Texas Rangers, with managerial genius Buck Showalter to lead them, might not be far beyond, despite hideous pitching.

Predicted finish:

1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. A's
4. Mariners

AL Wildcard: What this comes down to is which team has the most interdivisional muppets to beat up on and build a good record against. The Red Sox, five time wildcards, have had the likes of the Devil Rays and the Orioles the last several seasons but the AL East has improved all around this is no longer the most inevitable weakness. The AL Central has the Royals to beat up on but will beat up on themselves quite abit and cannot seem to find anyone to unseat the Twins. And the AL West might have the surprising Texas Rangers making a run.

I made a meal out of picking against New England all postseason in the NFL until it's rightfully wrong conclusion and there's no reason to stop now. Everyone's second favourite Republican, Curt Schilling, is coming off an injury and age and although he might still do well this season, you can only gut it out on heart so long. David Wells is not Pedro Martinez and although he might fare better against the Yankees than Pedro did, over an entire season, he too is too old to last. Matt Clement is not Derek Lowe, whom I predict will have a superb season with the Dodgers and make Red Sox fans regret seeing him go. The truth is, these Red Sox are as pitching questionable as the Yankees were last season. It probably won't be enough to knock them out of the wildcard but I'm picking against them anyway, just so I have something to root for in the interim. As previously noted, the last time the Red Sox were defending champs, they stunk up the league and the Chicago Black Sox won the American League. The White Sox won't go that far this time, nor will they fix baseball games. But they will give the AL Central their first wild card entry in history.

AL MVP: A-Rod
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
ALDS: Yankees over White Sox, Angels over Twins
ALCS: Angels over Yankees

*****

NL East

Holy hell broke loose in the offseason. The Mets signed the best free agent pitcher and best all-around free agent available in the form of Pedro and Carlos Beltran. The Braves traded for Tim Hudson, who might win 30 games with Leo Mazzone masterminding him, and moved Smoltz from the bullpen to the Opening Day starting pitcher. The Marlins lost Carl Pavano but gained the rapidly ageing Al Leiter and defeated the Mets in the race for Carlos Delgado. The Phillies finally rid themselves of Larry Bowa, lost a few starters and gained a few ex-Yankees. And in the biggest move of all, the Expos went from Montreal to Washington and renamed themselves the Nationals!

So, what does it all mean?

Since we've belaboured the point of consistency all column, it is safe to point out that the Braves have won the NL East 13 consecutive seasons. But it's also safe to point out that 13 is an unlucky number, they have no lefties in their bullpen to speak of, their strength in Smoltz as a closer is significantly weakened by his Brewer replacement Kolb, the team is ancient in the outfield and at the infield corners, Schmoltz is not likely to endure and entire season after years using his arm in closing situations and well, I just hate the Braves and won't pick them to finish first for a 14th year in a row.

So, who ends their run?

For several seasons, I've been able to successfully predict against Philly success simply because Larry Bowa was their manager. Is Charlie Manual a significant upgrade? Not as significant as Art Howe to Willie Randolph. And how many more games can the Jack McKeon continue to defy gravity and stay above ground in? He's 74 for crissakes. Do you realise that when he was born, Babe Ruth was still playing?! They are everyone's trendy pick to unseat the Braves and did rid themselves of Armandogeddon, which is always a good sign, but they will crumble from beneath the weight of heightened expectations.

No, the feel good story will have to be the Mets and for once, I can almost say this with a straight face.

Predicted finish:

1. Mets
2. Marlins
3. Braves
4. Phillies
5. Nats

NL Central

So now that the Red Sox finally tossed off 86 years of World Series futility the logical progression would be the Chicago Cubs ridding themselves of their 97 years of futility, right? This is a serious curse.

Problem is, the Cubs don't have that perennial nemesis like the Red Sox always had with the Yankees. Yeah, they've got a nice little rivalry working against the Cardinals but it just isn't the same thing. They didn't trade sell their future to their rivals like the Sox did by selling Ruth to the Yankees. Yes, they've traded Sammy Sosa, their most famous face, after several years of decline but this is a good thing, not a bad thing. This will help them perform as a team more than a collection of Sammy Sosa salsa numbers. The problem with the Cubs is their bullpen and their lack of a healthy closer. The problem with the Cubs is that two of their aces are always on the verge of a season-ending injury. The problem with the Cubs is that, well, they're the Cubs.

The Cardinals destroyed their National League competition in winning 105 games last season before being humiliated by history's juggernaut in the World Series. They've added Mark Mulder from the A's and now have five returning 15 game winners in their starting rotation and not even the Yankees can say that. But here are two killers: their only left handed bats, in Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker, are good bets to be injured this season which will often leave them with a lopsided, right-handed batting order. And their bullpen, Tony La Russa's achilles heel, threatens to destroy them as it did in 2003, the last time Cardinal expectations ran so high.

The Houston Astros managed to keep Clemens on for another half season - the half being the incubation period for all the Clemens-to-Yankees rumours to take hold once the Astros' free fall in the NL Central is evident. Hell, let's be fair. The Clemens-to-Yankees rumours began as soon as Clemens decided to come back for another season despite the fact the Astros were fairly decimated in the offseason with key free agent losses.

I think we can safely predict that the Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Red and Pittsburgh Pirates will not be in the running for very long.

Predicted finish:

1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Astros
4. Brewers
5. Reds
6. Pirates

NL West

The biggest news comes out of San Fransisco. The Giants, with no positional starter under 30 and in particular, without Barry Bonds, stink. Bonds is going to miss some time at the beginning of the season and perhaps will be ineffective for the entire first half of the season. This pretty much dooms them before they even start. That and the fact that Armandogeddon will be their closer. If they are anywhere near a pennant race near the end of the year, rest assured that Armandogeddon will make sure they don't stay there long.

The Dodgers, with their now-we've-traded-now-we-don't bizarre offseason, will have a promising rotation and not much else after losing Beltre and Shawn Green in the offseason. Yeah, they've got Jeff Kent but really, what has Jeff Kent ever won? And of course, the question of their automatic save machine, Eric Gagne starting the season on the DL is unsettling to say the least.

Inching forward with a combination of youth and pitching, the San Diego Padres are the new darlings of the NL West, providing they can learn to win at home and provided that their 3-4-5 hitters in Brian Giles, Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko, produce like they're capable of producing. The Rockies are in the middle of a confusing youth movement and last season's laughingstocks, the Arizona Diamondbacks lost Randy Johnson and gained a bunch of who knows what for alot of money. The big surprise for them will be Javier Vasquez's return to stardom but it won't be anywhere near enough to be players in the division. Predicted finish:

1. Padres
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

NL Wild Card:

Unlike the AL, every division in the NL has had representation as the wild card. Both the East and the Central divisions have had four appearances and the West just two. There should be an exciting battle between the Marlins, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers for this cherished spot but in the end, the weakness of the bottom of the NL Central should allow the Cardinals to squeak in as a wild card.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
NLDS: Cubs over the Padres, Mets over the Cardinals.
NLCS: Cubs over Mets.

*****

So, one year after the Red Sox success in breaking their curse, the Cubs will have their chance. Unfortunately, the idea of two teams breaking curses two seasons in a row is just too absurd, even for Sports Amnesia so the team with the most absurd name since the Utah Jazz and the new MSL franchise Real Salt Lake, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, will finish the season as World Champions.