American League Scheduling Schadenfreude

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards."--Soren Kierkegaard

With the exception of the fans of about a dozen teams remaining in the playoff hunt, now that the trading deadline has passed, most of us have already packed up our hopes for the season and have little more to look forward to than the idle speculation on the misery of the rest of the competitors. It's a hallow contemplation, but for many of us, it's all we have left. So for those of you still in the running, here's an assessment of the remaining schedule and a few predictions for those who never tire of seeing the predictions of others go painfully awry.

New York Yankees: Well, we now Currently cruising along at a 62% victory rate. They've got 51 games remaining, 28 of which are at home. Surprisingly, the Yankees have a better record on the road than they do at home. Sixteen of the home games come against teams with sub-.500 records like Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Detroit. Even a 10 game road trip is against the likes of Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the White Sox. With an 11-6 record since the break, the Yankees should cruise through the rest of the season. Predicted win total: 100

Boston Red Sox: Something that jumps out right away is that the Red Sox are a much better team at home than on the road. Lucky for them, 29 of their last 51 games will be at home including an elephantine 12 game homestand against Oakland, Seattle, Toronto and the Yankees. Consider that their Waterloo if they don't do well then. Prior to that homestand, they've got a 7 game road trip against Oakland and Seattle. In fact, 14 of their next 20 games are against Oakland and Seattle so within the next three weeks, the world should know if the Red Sox will prevail. Predicted win total: 95.

Chicago White Sox: You may ask yourself how much hinges upon the answer to the question: When was the last time both Sox teams made it to the postseason? THE ANSWER IS: Never. So you'd be looking at the first time in 101 years that the Sox and the Sox were in the postseason simultaneously. The White Sox are another team that does disproportionately better at home than on the road. They're 8 games under .500 on the road and 7 games above .500 at home. Fortunately for the White Sox, they play 3 more games at home than on the road the rest of the way. Ten of their last 15 games of the season will be on the road against Boston, Minnesota and Kansas City. They are blessed with a 9 game homestand before that however, facing Boston, Cleveland and Minnesota. Of their final 49 games, 29 come against teams with .500 or better records. (This is slightly deceiving because 7 of those games are against the Twins, who are at .500 exactly. If the Twins had lost one more game this season, only 20 of the 49 games would have been against winning teams.) Predicted win total: 91

Kansas City Royals: Are the cards stacked against the slowly wilting Royals, even in the scheduling? (And let's be honest, Kevin Appier is no savior even though his career record in August and September is 16-7 with a 3.78 ERA.) The Royals are about as good/bad at home as they are on the road so the fact that they play 28 of their final 51 games on the road is not such an overwhelming indication of their future. They do however, have a 10 game road from the 9th of September through the 21st but 7 of those games are against Cleveland and Detroit while only the last three are against the White Sox. Only 21 of their final 51 games come against winning teams and even more interesting, there's a stretch where 26 of 29 games are against losing teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Texas and Anaheim. If it weren't for the fact that they face the White Sox 7 of their final 10 games, I'd say the Royals could take their division. Predicted win total: 86.

Seattle Mariners: Since the break, the Mariners and the A's have been just about even. (Oakland is a half-game better.) The Mariners, like the Royals, do not see a big dip in play when they go on the road. In fact, even though they've played 4 more games at home than on the road, they've only won one more at home than on the road. What that means is, playing 28 of their final 50 games on the road shouldn't break them, especially when you consider that their longest road trip doesn't go further than Texas and includes, besides the Rangers, the Angels and the A's. Only 16 of their final 50 games are against winning teams so I don't look for a big drop-off here. Predicted win total: 98

Oakland A's: Combine the fact of Seattle's relatively easy schedule the rest of the way with the rotten road record the A's have had thus far this season and the fact that they will play 27 of their last 50 games on the road, and you don't have a very promising future for the A's this season. Only Atlanta, San Francisco and Boston, all probable playoff teams, have a better home winning percentage than the A's but of all those teams, the A's have the worst record on the road. So the fact that the A's will spend the majority of the rest of the season on the road, even though 26 of their final 32 games will be against bottom feeders like Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Texas and Anaheim, spells...(let's here it, A's fans...): D-O-O-M. Predicted win total: 94.

To review:

AL East Winners: New York Yankees 100-62
AL Central Winners: Chicago White Sox 91-71
AL West Winners: Seattle Mariners 98-64
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox 95-67

If Pitching, Defense and Hitting are the Triple Crown of Winning, the following should be noted about the four finalists:

Here, I introduce the Batfield Pitching Average (BPA) which, simply put, is an archaic statistical theory put forward by Archimedes, back when the Carthaginians couldn't buy a pennant, that utilizes the team batting average added to the team fielding percentage minus the team Earned Run Average. This sudden interest in arcane abstracts probably comes from reading too SABR-oriented blogs and websites and a now-overzealous calculator finger. What does the Team BPA tell you? Well, let's have a look at last year's Team BPAs for the four AL postseason qualifiers:

Team BPA

Anaheim .899
Oakland .877
New York .867
Minnesota .847

I think we can all agree that if someone other than the franchise-beating Art Howe had been the manager of the A's in 2002, if no bald serenity guru had mismanaged the A's pitching rotation in the opening round of the playoffs, the Twins would have been knocked out in the first round and the Team BPA would have been an excellent indication of who had the best chance of getting to the World Series.

Keeping that in mind, here is the Team BPA for this season's potential four postseason qualifiers:

Team BPA

Seattle .894
Yankees .866
Chicago .824
Boston .805

These figures, in terms of paraconsistent logic, mean the following:

A. The Yankees will sweep the White Sox.
B. Seattle will defeat Boston.
C. Seattle will defeat the Yankees in the ALCS, 4 games to 2 and go on to the World Series.

Tomorrow: The National League Scheduling Drama and Forecast.