Euro 2004 Special

Only a day and a half until the first match of the Euro 2004, between hosts Portugal and Sports Amnesia's very own darkhorse, Greece, slated to open the tournament. Sports Amnesia predicts this match will be an upset and will spur the Greeks on to a quarterfinals showing. In fact, it isn't just Sports Amnesia thinking this. Even the Greeks have issued a warning that the Portugese shouldn't take them lightly. Here's a look at each Group:

Group A: (The Group of Sun. Three of the Four teams in this group come from warm, sunny places. The fourth comes from a cold, dismal place.)

The stench of historical underachievement prevails in a grouping which has Spain, a team who prior to every tournament, is considered one of the best teams on paper before some sort of melodramatic reality of self-denial and choking swoops down and carries them off from their lofty expectations. Every tournament appears to demonstrate that the expectation is simply too much for the Spaniards to handle. You might have fallen for the prank in the 2002 WC and even the Euro 2000 but from here, it will be a surprise if Spain, despite their immense talent, dont' choke yet again and allow the weight of expectation to foil them.

Portugal is just two years removed from a World Cup humiliation that saw them fail to advance past their own group round despite having assembled one of their best teams ever. Were Spain not in this Group already usurping the Lifetime Underachievement award, I don't know that Portugal would get past this group either. But as hosts, it's a moral obligation.

Greece, (80-1 odds against winning) as previously noted, is the darkhorse candidate in Sports Amnesia's stable despite having been outscored 0-10 in their last international showing in the 1994 World Cup in America. This could prove either to be an amazing feat of prescience or an idiotic and transparently foolish effort at predicting the unpredictable but the Greeks, having cocked up the Olympic Games already before they've even started, will have to save face somewhere. That translates to an opening match draw against Portugal, an inexplicable victory over Spain where everyone will smack themselves in the forehead wondering why they didn't see the Spain derailment coming from 100 miles away. Before defeating the Russians and moving on to the next round.

And Russia, the token cold, dismal country of the group, stands one of the better chances of anyone in the Championship to exit their Group pointless. The Russians only qualified because the brave and heroic Welsh side lost their argument in court that Russia should have been disqualified for having allowed a player who later tested positive for drugs to play on their side. The Welsh, those silly people, should have known that the Russians would prevail. It's a big set up, you see. Let the Russians in just so you can urinate on them after they've fallen down drunk and incoherent. Take it easy, Wales. Your revenge is coming.

Predicted order of finish: 1. Portugal 2. Greece 3. Spain 4. Russia

Group B: (The Group of Not-Quite Death, But Painful Nonetheless)

Of course, the cataclysmic confrontation between France and England this Sunday dominates the expectations of this group although ultimately, it may not have as much bearing on the outcome of the group itself as one might expect. You could look at it myopically; that regardless of whether France beat England or England beat France, both would be able to humble Switzerland and Croatia, making the result of their own match significant only in deciding who earns a first place showing and who gets the second place slot.

France, who won the 98 WC and the Euro 2000 before stumbling out of the blocks without Zidane in the 2002 WC, have every reason to expect a repeat as Euro Champs. Normally, a team this talented would suffer the danger of overconfidence but having been humiliated in the 2002 WC already, there is little chance that they will take anything lightly along the way. If they remember even further back, they can think about 1992 when they arrived to the Euro Championships with a perfect record in qualifying, winning all eight matches, including four against countries as strong as Spain and the former Czechoslovakia. They went on to draw against Sweden, draw against England and lose to Denmark, getting knocked out in the opening round. This time around, look for them to defeat the English in their opening match and trample competition from there on.

On the other hand, England should be happy to lose to the French in their opening match. It will prevent them from becoming deflated and overconfident and lethargic when they face Croatia and Switzerland, their two most important matches. In fact, it will be the wounding of England by France that will allow the English intestinal fortitude and clear-headed focus to push through to the next round.

As for Croatia, this will be the best team not to make it through to the next round. They can certainly defeat Switzerland and frankly, if the English didn't have to beat them to advance, there is a good chance the Croats could defeat them too. But the logical sequence, as outlined above, is England losing to France and fighting their way through to advance. If the sequence were, let's say, England defeating France in the opener, well then, I'd say there was a good chance England would do something foolish, like lose to Switzerland, but that would of course, mean the French would take the Croats seriously and well, let's just stick with the notion that the Croats will be dangerous but the Croats will not go forward.

You'd be hard pressed for me to make a case that Switzerland even belong here. Yeahyeah, they won their stinking qualifying group, in essence, by beating Ireland and Romania and letting Russia pound them. This isn't a good team and the absurdists chanting warnings in the background should be silenced rather quickly after the Croats dismantle them. Switzerland is not a football country. It is a country of mountain climbers and bankers.

Predicted order of finish: 1. France 2. England 3. Croatia 4. Switzerland

Group C: The Snooze Attack

They say that the Group of Death is Group D but for my money, Group C is the most even and will be the most hotly contested of all the groups.

Italy, with their immensely talented squad, would be an exciting ticket against any three of these teams but the reality is, Trapattoni will have his side snooze attack football and the matches that don't end up 0-0 draws will end up being 1-0 victories.

One of the favourite darkhorses of the tournament are Bulgaria, which some might find surprising given that they're 80-1 odds against winning the title. It wasn't so very long ago (1996) that the Bulgarians took the quarterfinals against Germany and shocked everyone. But this sort of idealistic reminiscing is rather pointless when considering that Stoitchkov is no longer around to save them. Their opening match against Sweden will likely decide who gets to be Italy's handmaiden going into the quarterfinals.

Sweden, the 9th most likely of the 16 squads to win the tournament according to Sky Bets, closes their first round against Scandanavian archrivals, Denmark. This will be in essence, a matchup of rigid, practical furniture against cheap, mass-manufactured furniture, the deadly battle of Ikea vs. Dansk Møbelkunst. I won't be shy about this: what this really boils down to is a battle of the national drinks and I'm rooting all out for a Danish victory. After all, why should a country which produces beers like Tuborg and Carlsberg be defeated by a side that, yes, produces http://absolut.com/">Absolut and all their fancy advertisements but yes, also produces something as utterly undrinkable as Crocodile Beer??

Predicted order of finish: 1. Italy 2. Denmark 3. Bulgaria 4. Sweden

Group D The Group of Death

Yes, it sounds very ominous indeed but in reality, this group amounts to one quality side, one habitually underachieving side, one side which historically do well but just don't have the players to do it again and one side that well, beats it's chest about nothing.

It's no secret why so many are enamoured with the chances of the Czech Republic. Need we remind how they steamrolled through their qualifiers without losing a match and defeated their own group rivals, Holland, once already? (echoes of 1992 France, anyone?) Their opening match against Latvia could produce one of the most lopsided outcomes of the tournament.

As we know, Latvia haven't much to root for. Yes, they did humiliate the Turks in Turkey no less (something not even the English couldn't do) to qualify. But don't look for the Latvians to sweep through the tournament as much more than a foil to the other three squads. It's been done before, in equally shocking fashion, way back in 1992, when the Danes, who only qualified because Yugoslavia, in the middle of a civil war, withdrew, ended up winning the whole bloody tournament but if you're looking for some sort of repeat, forget it. But Latvia aren't ready for that role just yet.

What you've got instead after the Czech Republic are historical hatreds and quite probably, uninspired play. You might wonder who will be more likely to show up, the Holland who destroyed the Scots to make it into the Euro 2004 or the Holland who lost to Ireland 1-0 last week and played with a collective uninspiration that was inspiring in its degree of apathy. The hint here is that manager Dick Advocaat has finally come to his senses, by naming Van Nistelrooy as the lone striker and benching the perennially All-Apathetic captain, Patrick Kluivert so that some of the young and hungry Dutch can have a chance to show their flash and style before they too become indifferent, swollen millionaires with no effort in their play.

This decision, in fact, is what will propel the Dutch past Germany in their opening match. I don't care what the Germans have done in the past. I don't care how they are like the inverse of the Spaniards, a side whom nobody thinks will do much yet habitually advances and does something.

Not this time.

Predicted order of finish: 1. Czech Republic 2. Holland 3. Germany 4. Latvia.

*****

Quarterfinals

Portugal defeat England
France defeat Greece
Italy defeat Holland
Czech Republic defeat Denmark

SemiFinals

Italy defeat Portugal
France defeat Czech Republic

FINAL

In a rematch of Euro 2000, Italy plays France and this time, gets it right, winning 2-1.