Who Are These Reds And Where Did They Come From?
"I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency, even if I'm in a cabinet meeting." -- Ronald Reagan

This is the part of the season where the early pretenders are supposed to fade away quietly in the standings, achingly extinguishing the early Spring hopes of fans optimistic enough to believe their side's opening month might possibly be a harbinger of success to come.

This is also the part of the season where you'd have expected to see the Cincinnati Reds joining their brethren in mediocrity, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers, in the dank cellar of the National League Central. The NL Central, after all, is supposed to be the sole domain of heavyweights like the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and St Louis Cardinals. Hell, the Reds are so supposed to be out of the race by now, even the evil Clear Channel radio refuses to broadcast Reds games on the radio in Lexington, Kentucky with a strong signal station, as though the idea of the Reds being competetive was so ludicrous, there was no need to broadcast them on with a signal any stronger than the stone-age, shout-it-out-the-open-window WXRA-AM 1580.

So imagine yourself last December opening up a sportspage of the future and seeing on this 60th D-Day anniversary that the Cincinnati Reds were inexplicably lodged at the peak of the NL Central and playing .600 ball. After all, what was the probability? The equivilent of Marge Schott dying at 75? Oh yeah, in case you're wondering, the Reds have a winning record since she died. Perhaps the curse of Marge Schott has finally been lifted.

Now, imagine how the hell the Reds got here.

What are they doing at the plate? Well, to put it mildly, they're not exactly tearing it up. They rank 14th of 16 National League teams in batting average, hitting a collective .247, better only than the Mets and the Expos. They rank 10th in slugging percentage. The one thing that might be pointed to is that they have a .340 team OBA, behind only the Giants, Colorado, and fellow NL Central dwellers, Houston, and are ranked fifth in walks. On the other hand, they lead the National League in striking out and are tied for fifth for grounding into double plays. So even though they get alot of men on base, they don't seem to do much with them thereafter. They have 21 stolen bases in 54 games, hardly the definition of terror on the basepaths.

So naturally, one must assume if it isn't their bats and it isn't their run scoring abilities or speed, then it must be the pitching.

Well actually, no. Their 4.37 team ERA ranks 12th in the National League. Their opponents are hitting a whopping .270 against them, ranked 14th. And they are getting walloped, not just hit against. The collective slugging percentage against Reds pitching is .456, which, if it wasn't for Colorado pitching, would be the worst in the National League.

What other stone can be unturned in search of the answer to this puzzle that is the success of the Cincinnati Reds, the best fielding team in the league? Only if we can nudge the definition of "best" into being 12th out of 16 in fielding percentage.

So, the current ingredients are: no definitive team speed, an ability to put a better than average amount of runners on base but not doing much with them, a mediocre defence and an ulcer-inducing starting rotation. Not exactly how you'd imagine building a winner. Not unless you were playing for some local tavern team of crappy Midwestern beer guzzlers in a summer softball league.

The Reds have only outscored their opponents by a barely visible 258-255 margin. That means that the Reds are winning on vapor. Of all teams with a winning record in the Major Leagues right now, only the mysterious Twins, who have actually been outscored by 15 runs despite a winning record, have a lower margin. The next closest are the Padres, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 9 runs over 55 games, and they've only won 30 games.

Yet somehow, these Reds lead the entire National League in victories. Somehow, they are tied for the second most victories in all of the Major Leagues, behind only the New York Yankees. That's right, if all the teams were stacked one atop another right now in a giant metaphorical heap, only the hated Yankees would be ahead of the Cincinnati Reds, and this isn't even 1976 any more.

To begin with, you might wonder how much of those unattractive, porcine pitching stats are owed to a mediocre rotation. After all, once you erase Paul Wilson's inexplicable 7-0 start (13% of all Reds victories), the rest of the starters are like a reheated tv dinner at 13-16. Wilson is the first starting Reds pitcher to begin a season 7-0 since righty Mike LaCoss went 8-0 in 1979. The 1979 Reds finished 90-71 in winning the Western Division only to get swept in the NLCS by the World Champion Pirates. (whew, when was the last time somebody could say that: The World Champion Pittsburgh Pirates?)...

Once you get beyond the nausea that is the starting rotation sans the frequently injured Paul Wilson, you can see that the bullpen has already held 40 games, best in the National League. The bullpen has accumulated an 11-6 record, which, at a winning percentage of .647, is higher than the rotation's collective 20-16 record. In fact, if you might even come to believe that the success of the team is somewhat driven by the bullpen.

You might also examine the fact that despite the mediocre fielding average, the Reds have one of the best-rated fielding range factors in the league and the fact that they've allowed only 15 stolen bases, the second lowest in the league. The defence would seem to cover alot of ground and save alot of pitchers problem baserunners.

You could point out that while the two alleged uninjured powerhouses of their outfield, Junior and Dunn are only hitting .242 and .260 respectively, Junior has an OBA of .352 and Dunn is on base at a .434 pace.

Another factor to consider is how well the Reds play at night, when they are 21-12, by far the best in the National League. The only team anywhere near as good at night are the first place Dodgers, who are 8 games above .500 after sunset.

Lastly, something immeasurable, something that doesn't rear its head in a frenzy of statistical hocus pocus, is the overall spirit of justifiable enthusiasm to date. "I think there's a buzz right now in the city about the Cincinnati Reds, and they wanted to come out and see what's going on," said Sean Casey after Friday's walk-up crowd of 10,755, the largest since the Reds started keeping track of those totals in 1987. This is infectuous, especially on a team that has lingered in the middle of nowhere for so long.

Yet for all this love and happiness in Cincinnati, the NY Post's Joel Sherman quoted one AL executive saying,

"Sean Casey is not a .379 hitter, Paul Wilson is not going to go 22-0 and Danny Graves might have 21 saves, but he's also allowed seven homers in 27 innings. They've got enough talent to finish within 10 games, but that's about it."

Tsk, tsk. The pain of disbelievers having to swallow the pride of their erroneous predictions is almost audible.

Sherman continues chewing on the nihilistic fringe by espousing that the Reds should give up already and surrender their stars to the megaliths of baseball.

"The Reds, for example, actually have their three highest-paid players - Casey, Graves and Ken Griffey - playing well, and should move them if they can. The most interesting possibilities, though, could involve young first basemen. Texas has a load of hitting and a top first-base prospect, Adrian Gonzalez (who hit .216 in his AAA debut last season), nearly ready, so one scout said, "I would trade Mark Teixeira if I could get a young, high-end starter."

I wouldn't trade anyone. I'm not going to trade Junior simply because of the chance that his spell with mid-career injuries was merely an mirage, a bump in the road to further fame, and he still might possibly finish his career with the Reds someday chasing Barry Bonds for the All-Time Homerun record. After all, he's going to beat Fred McGriff to 500, isn't he?

And where's the logic in trading Casey, who at 29 is one of the best fielding first basemen in the league and leads the league in hitting? For the career .256 hitter, Mark Teixera? On what planet does this take place?

So despite the naysayers and the creeps so eager to write the Reds off and trade their best players, I'm going to listen to the Reds play the Expos on radio today and see what the excitement is all about.

Elsewhere

If you were a fan of the endless tease Montreal Expos moving to the Washington, DC area, which would you prefer, that they keep their best players to improve the market value of the club as Tim Kurkijan suggests, or, would you prefer the scenario that "Maybe they'll strip that club to the bone, cut payroll even more, and start over fresh."?

I would jettison as many as possible. The first person you might hope they'd try and dump would be the perpetually injured Nick Johnson. And by god, do it fast because he's got that two week window right now where he isn't hurt and he's hitting .429 in 8 games so far.

Next in line would be the insufferable Carl Everett, who is hitting .246 in his Canadian purgatory. And will somebody please tell me when it was that the consistently worse-than-mediocre Peter Bergeron was ever considered a prospect? Is it the hope inspired by his .226 lifetime batting average?

And what's going on with Jose Vidro? The .302 lifetime second baseman is hitting .234 at the moment. Keep in mind how fast two other second basemen fell from grace so rapidly. Carlos Baerga and Roberto Alomar. Is he too, washed up, at the age of 30, which he will be in August? Is he going to be joined by the 29 year old shortstop Orlando Cabrera in the bargain rubbish bin, who at .227 is hitting a full 40 points below his career batting average?

Now that I think of it, the entire batting order should be gutted, carted off like rubble to wherever they can find homes for whatever price. Let's have a look at the 25 year old Indian reject, Ryan Church, who is currently hitting .387 with 10 homers and 36 RBIs in 45 games for the Edmonton Trappers in the offence-happy Pacific Coast League. That's what I'd say if I were a potential fan of the potential Washington Expos - er, what would they be called anyway? The Washington Monuments?

*****

So much for my Armandogeddon-Flails-at-Shea theory. Actually, it's not just my theory, it's the theory of every Met fan in the world. Maybe it's time to muzzle that barking dog, finally. Although he surrendered a homer to Mike Piazza last night breaking his 40 consecutive batter hitless streak, and endured ear-splitting boos upon his return to the Shea Stadium mound, in two games at there this season, he's recorded two saves. Armando's last four appearances have come against the Mets and in that time, he recorded four straight saves, pitched four and a third innings of closing relief and allowed only Piazza's bases-empty banger. Not bad. Well, there's always a pennant race meltdown to hope for.

*****

The international battery of the year-to-date must be the Orioles and their starting rotation of of Sidney Ponson (Aruba), Eric DuBose (USA), Daniel Cabrera (Dominican Republic), Erik Bedard (Canada) and Rodrigo Lopez (Mexico). Catching them are Javy Lopez (Puerto Rico) and Robert Machado (Venezuela). Ok, hardly an overwhelming World Cup of Baseball battery, but go on, find a more international battery on one team.

*****

If you think the oversaturated, mindless vacuum of fast food suburban mall teenage intellect is expanding at an alarming rate, you might consider what Junior had to say about the possibility of reaching the 500 plateau in career homeruns.

"How many kids talk about hitting 500 home runs?" he asked rhetorically. "No, they always talk about hitting a home run in the World Series like Joe Carter to end the game. That's it. That's the goal. That's something we all dream about as kids. It just hasn't happened to me yet."

It's probably true for everyone's childhood. For most of us, youth is living in the moment of the sun, not the accomplishments achieved by sunset. After all, what kid in Tampa Bay is outside right now playing a game of sandlot ball thinking to himself, "Goddamn, if only I can be like Fred McGriff and lurch my way to 500 career homeruns in the most excruciatingly unexciting way imagineable?!"

*****

By the way, after listening to the WGN's Ron Santo far too many times this season, I've come to the conclusion that he is baseball's current most obnoxious radio announcer. For those of you who, like me, are still malingering on radio broadcasts instead of the watching and listening to someone like ESPN's Joe Morgan mysteriously rattling his way through the subconcious, I'd like to hear who are your favourite radio announcers and who are your least favourite. When you're up at 3 in the morning and nearly every game is getting a live online radio feed from mlb.com, you'll listen to any team's broadcast at least once.

*****

Lastly, although football (American soccer) seems to have no fan following beneath the MLS puddle of excitement over Freddy Adu, it should be pointed out that England won their friendly match yesterday against the indominable Iceland national team by a healthy 6-1 margin and will next face the current European Champion France in their first match of the Euro 2004 in Portugal a week from today in what promises to be something akin to the end of the world here in England, regardless of the outcome.

And lest you think I'm just name-tossing, jumping on the Freddy Adu bandwagon like the rest of the fair weather fans, allow me to point out my prescient nature in all things Adu. Waaaay back in March of 2003, I asked the now-nearly redundant question, right here on sportspages.com: America's Pele?.

Thoughts on the demise of Ronald Reagan can be found at Desultory Turgescence.

Good news. Happy to announce Arseblog and Danger Here and Soccer Fever have been added to the links list as fine purveyors of football disinformation.