NFL Playoffs Looming Large in the Rear View Mirror

Well with only a week left to assess the situation and still so many scenarios, it's time for Sports Amnesia to play who can guess the loudest. So far, we know this much for sure:

In the AFC

Pretty much every playoff spot up for grabs, oddly enough, both in the AFC AND NFC, hinges upon the St Louis Rams versus Jets game. Pittsburgh and New England are top seeds in the AFC.

Seeds 3 and 4 will probably be Indianapolis and San Diego.

The Wildcard is up for grabs. In the running still and with the best chances of success:

5. NY Jets - who only have to beat the St Louis Rams in the dome of St Louis.
6. Denver - Another team who "only" have to win to get in, however, they have to beat Indianapolis in Denver. If it weren't for their horrible inconsistency combined with Peyton Manning, you'd have to think the Broncos would be a pretty safe bet. But they aren't. They are a safe bet to choke and stumble. Over the last month and a half they follow a loss with a win with a loss. It's been that kind of season.
7. Buffalo Bills - either Jets or Broncos must lose AND Bills have to beat Pittsburgh at home. Pittsburgh will not have Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh probably doesn't care too much about whether or not they win this game.
8. Jacksonville Jags - First, Buffalo and Denver have to lose, PLUS, they have to win at Oakland. All very good possibilities. Problem is, they haven't won in weeks and frankly, they aren't going to get very far this week either.

Now, who gets the AFC wildcards and why:

1. NY Jets: they can and will beat St Louis. Remember, they only lose to GOOD teams, not inferior teams. Their victory gives them the 5th seed.
2. Buffalo Bills: The primary reason is the belief that the Denver Broncos are accomplished choke artists and will lose to Indianapolis. The secondary reason is that they will be playing the Steelers at home in a game that means virtually nothing to the Steelers and who will be resting the QB who helped get them this far.

In the NFC

First Round Byes:

1. Philadelphia Eagles, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and limping with the loss of TO and the humiliation of getting absolutely pounded by the St Louis Rams.
2. Atlanta Falcons have the other first round bye clinched and this, my friends, is the team destined to get clipped in their first postseason match, bank on it. They've been playing preseason-like intensity for the last three weeks and cannot just juice it back up when it counts.
3. Green Bay has clinched the Central and the third seed.
4. The "race" for the West includes Seattle and the St Louis Rams. Seattle have already clinched a playoff spot but COULD lose the title of West "champs" if they lose AND St Louis wins. We've already established that the Rams will lose to the Jets, so the Seattle Seahawks win the West and have homefield advantage against the better of the two wildcards.
5 and 6 seeds will again depend on who becomes the wildcard.

Having established that the Rams will lose to the Jets and will not make the playoffs, dinner is served.

A week or two ago I had the Vikings and Carolina Panthers in the 5th and 6th seed.

Again, the Rams loss determines alot as a Rams loss means the Vikings are in, regardless of whether they win or lose this week. The Vikings, it is important to note now that Head Coach Mike Tice has been extended a year, can back into the playoffs like a garbage truck, and they will.

The other wild card, having established the Rams losing to the Jets, will be between New Orleans and Carolina and this match will be played in Carolina. 'Nuff said?

Now, the dilemma here is which seed finishes where between the Vikes and the Carolina Panthers. This is important because the lower seed will have to face the Packers in Green Bay whilst the higher seed will face a crap Seattle team who have ever hope of losing straight away in the first round.

My theory is that the Redskins, to cap off Gibbs' first uninspirational season but send a message to the rest of the league that the Gibbs is not to be messed with, will defeat the Vikings, who are weak on grass and well, just aren't that good. You could make the argument that the extension of Tice's contract for a year gives the Vikings added incentive, proving the owner right, but that's the rub, it does exactly the opposite. It puts pressure on them to prove the owner right, which is more pressure than it would have been merely to beat the Skins and make the playoffs. Thus, they will lose to the Redskins. Combined with Carolina's imminent victory over New Orleans, this means that both wildcards will finish 8-8.

To break the tie and determine seeds 5 and 6, the NFL has the ole tiebreaker mould.

Sadly, there is no head to head, so it falls upon their conference records, which means Carolina, by virtue of an 8-6 NFC record, is seeded higher than the Vikes and their 6-8 NFC record which means that Carolina gets to face creampuff Seattle and the Vikings have to go all the way to Green Bay to be humiliated again.

So, the first round probably looks like this:

AFC

NY Jets at San Diego
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis

NFC

Carolina at Seattle
Minnesota at Green Bay

And tomorrow, boys and girls, IF you're good, I'll let you know what happens the rest of the way.