Baseball Playoff Finally Arrive
Twins and Their Dome At Home Will Do The Business

A little over six months in the waiting (if you only count the regular season, forgetting about Spring Training and the winter months pining away with rumours of free agent signing and multiplayer trades,)the baseball postseason is finally here. Sports Amnesia's Preview is here with tiny little observations and best of all, more arbitrary, far-flung predictions.

Minnesota Twins v Oakland A's: The first thing you would say is that potentially, Johan Santana could win it all by himself. Well, that's the impression you get about the man likely to be this season's AL Cy Young winner. Pure team numbers show that the team is alot more than Santana. Of the four playoff teams the Twins are tops in ERA, tied for tops in fielding percentage and tops in post-All Star batting average. They are the least powerful of the AL's final four if measured in homeruns and have only the third highest on-base percentage and lowest amount of runs scored.

The A's on the other hand lead the pack with the most post-All Star game saves (and yes, in this convoluted world, Sports Amnesia is going with stats which demonstrate the hot hand rather than they early heat that faded...) and yet the pitching staff overall is second to the Twins almost everywhere.

An intangible factor is the Hubert Humphrey Dome and the fact that the Twins are opening this round in it. Give immediate momentum to the Twins who will take the Opening Series. The A's are likely to lose Game One and near-certain to lose game two consider they will throw Esteban Loiza out for them against The Boofer. Twins take the momentum, a 2-0 start out of the gates and, coupled with the A's rather dubious post-season mark, this early start will prove their downfall. Rich Harden, dubious and injured most of the season would be forced to save the series himself.

The A's have more experience playing in one-run games but given their pitching staff this might not be helpful.

Pick: Twins in Three

*****

New York Yankees v Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers enter this postseason as Team Taper Off; after a solid beginning that saw them with the best record in baseball, they faded so fast they ended up losing a double digit lead in the AL Central and eventually the division title. They have no playoff experience versus the massive experience of the Yankees.

How far have the Yankees come in history that a Chinaman is pitching their opening playoff game? (well, Taiwanese to be precise but...) A team loaded with big ticket free agent pitchers starts a guy who has come up through their ravaged farm system.

The Tigers' bullpen is atrocious and I'm not sure the likes of Nate Robertson is going to make such a difference the weak and inexperienced bullpen will even matter. The Tigers suck in extra inning games (4-8) which show a lack of depth necessary for the playoffs but the Yankees were poor in one-run games, winning only 24 of 46 (Tigers meanwhile won 20 of 31.)

Question is, will Tigers be in enough one run decisions for that to matter? The Yankees are in the habit of scoring alot of runs and have the highest post-All Star Game on base percentage of any of the playoff teams. That means it might be like a pinball game that the Tigers have to hope they can outscore the Yankees in.

Not bloody likely.

Game Two is the fulcrum when the faded Justin Verlander takes on Mike Mussina who is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 15 starts at home this year and will be pitching at Yankee Stadium, is a rather pedestrian 7-7 in his postseason career with a 3.30 ERA. In nine ALDS starts, Mussina is 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA.

Meanwhile the Tigers' Kenny Rogers (17-8, 3.84 ERA) is a remarkable 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in nine playoff appearances. He will face the ageing, injured Unit at home. The Unit has an ERA of over 5.00 in the last month, both home and on the road. This will be a HIGH scoring Game Three with momentum on the line.

Pick: Yankees in Five

*****

San Diego Padres versus St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are the Detroit Tigers of the National League albeit without the flashy start to the season, the story of the unsung and the surprise. They nearly blew a double digit lead in their own Central division and choked as badly as the Tigers did down the stretch. At least they held on to their division even if it was more by virtue of a lack of opposition than any pronounced greatness.

Of course, the Cards could be lying in the grass, pretending to be dead when they were really just sunning themselves all along.

The Cards are the worst hitting, worst pitching team in the National League playoffs.

Their opening game pitcher is Chris Carpenter who has a home ERA of 1.81 and a road ERA of 4.70. Opening game is on the road.

Look for Woody Williams to outpitch Jeff Weaver in Game Three to give the Padres the edge overall.

This series will be surpisingly tight.

Pick: Padres in Five

Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets

Rematch of 1988 without any of the players. In other words, so what.

Yes, Mets are without Pedro, blablabla. They've been without Pedro most of the year relying more on the mystique of Pedro than the man himself so the loss isn't as devastating as it appears.

The Mets had the best record in the National League, they hit well, outscoring bad episodes of shaky starters, their bullpen has been stellar all season with great depth and they're loaded with stars.

The Dodgers have been the hottest team outside of the A's since the end of July. They, like the Mets are a great comeback team which should prove for some very very exciting games.

Game One- Derek Lowe finished the regular season with one loss since mid-July, going 9-1. He was rested for this game. But El Duque's postseason clock is ticking right on schedule. In September, he had a 2-2 record a 2.01 ERA in five starts. The Dodgers are a lousy road team (39-42) whilst the Mets sparkle at Shea, (50-31). The Dodgers are crap (3-8) in extra innings and a mere 20-20 in one-run games. This game will decide whether the Mets will believe the bad hype or go back to remembering their self-confident, never-say-die team spirit that got them there.

Game Two: The Dodgers decided against the Maddux-Glavine classic, the bastids and will deserve to lose this game for doing so. Hong-Chih Kuo may not be old and tired but he isn't Greg Maddux either. He pitched six shutout innings against the Mets which is likely why he's in this spot. Buyer beware, Glavine's last 15 postseason starts -- those from 1997 forward -- have yielded a 4-9 record and 4.40 ERA. Maybe why the Braves lost all those playoffs?
Point is, Kuo probably can't get away with the same trick twice. Glavine will give up an early lead but the Mets will come back by the 5th.

Game Three: This is where Pedro's absence shows. Brad Penny, whom the Mets clobbered for seven runs and ten hits in less than six innings at Shea will start against the dreaded Steve Trachsel. Make it clear, Trachsel is only as good as his run support. If the Mets clobber Penny again they might have a prayer with Trachsel but basically, this is a throwaway game for the Mets so they'd better go to LA with a 2-0 lead or else there will be serious trouble.

The Question then is if Willie will bring back El Duque on short rest in Game 4 with a chance to clinch or if he will give rookie John Maine a taste of the postseason. If the Mets are up 2 games to 1 rather than down 2 games to 1, look for Maine to start but on the brink of elimination, they will likely toss out The Duke. Unfortunately, Game 4 will feature Maddux coming back to pitch for the Dodgers, a devastating hidden gem.

Pick: Dodgers in Five

*****

We see the Twins taking out the Yankees and then the Dodgers relieving the Padres of the postseason in a vindicating postseason swell for Grady Little.

WORLD SERIES: Twins over the Dodgers in Six.