Week Fifteen: Bandwagons, Who Needs 'Em?



How many teams have made a run for the top spot before falling miserably away in a matter of a week or two? Peeling away like rotting flesh from a decomposing bone?

The first runway model whose knees buckled were the Bears. Well, the Bears themselves have never really buckled save for a tiny glitch or two, it's been mostly Rex Grossman's doing. Still, after roaring to an intimidating 5-0 start, including outscoring their first two opponents by a 60-7 margin and becoming everyone's consensus most frightening team, the Bears nearly lost to the Cardinals in an embarassing MNF display, then did lose to the Dolphins, finally, after a bye week and a runaway against the 49ers, crunched the Giants and Jets in New Jersey before losing to New England at home and making everyone yawn at their chances. Where did they go on the radar? Oh, everyone blinded by the upstarts and forward-thinkers. But they are still around. Rex Grossman is still suspect but in reality, the Bears have remained strong on defence and special teams. They aren't better or worse than their 5-0 start but they aren't the 1985 Bears either.

Next up on the Everybody Wants a Piece of This Greatness gravy train were the Ravens. They crushed the Bucaneers 27-0 in their opener leaving everyone gasping, then allowed only 6 points against the Raiders, much to no one's surprise. Yes, suspect QB, like the Bears, but like the Bears, a brilliant defence. They won their first four culminating with a playoff preview victory over the Chargers. (this, when the Chargers were but a twinkle in everyone's eye...)and then the bottom fell out. Visible MNF loss to the Broncos followed by a loss to Carolina. Everyone threw up their hands. Billick fired his offensive coordinator. This team sucks. Then a bye week to lick their wounds, and they reel off New Orleans, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Suddenly the Ravens, mebbe, just mebbe. But not quite.

And whose fall has come quicker than the Colts? The Pretty Boyz had everyone whispering about greatest franchise that never even made it to the Super Bowl, thinking yet again about an undefeated season and after winning their first nine and causing all that giddy commotion, they've now lost three of their last four behind an Olé Rush Defence with everyone kicking them, spitting upon them whispering I told you so, gutless team with no character. That's what all those post season failures told us.

Then let's look at the Iggles. They were standing purdy with a 3-1 record and then inexplicably, they lost it. To New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville in a row and then lost their franchise QB. Just when everyone had written their obits, suddenly they win a few in a row and you remember, hey, this isn't such a bad team after all. But the road ahead is a brutal schedule. At Giants, at Dallas, host Falcons. Nah. Forget it, they're buried. And just when you've thrown the last shovelful of dirt upon them, who knows there they are standing.

Finally, the latest fad are the Chargers. Admittedly, this is a roaring bunch. Massive offence, frightening defence and game after game proving themselves. Will they too fall in the three weeks to come, stumble out of momentum and return to their underdog status, or will they continue to run the table, make our heads spin, keep us guessing?

You could argue similarly for teams like the Saints but nothing was really ever expected of the Saints. Same with the Cowbys. And maybe the Giants. And the Bengals, nah, they haven't looked impressive all season save for the last few weeks now that it counts.

It boils down to every team, save for the Lions, Cardinals, Raiders and Bucs have looked impressive or quasi-impressive at one point or another this season and equally, they've had their falls from grace. That's why you won't see any over-the-top predictions about the Super Bowl from this quarter.

Random Notes
Dolphins 5-1 since week 9

Say what you want about another boorish performance/revelation from Terrell Owens, the coach-killer's coach killer: it wasn't TO out there giving up 42 points against the Saints.

Simple formula: Edgerrin James, 100 yards rushing two games in a row, Cardinals 2-0.

Simple forumla II: Chris Weinke, whose 1-15 record coming into the game was the worst of any current quarterback with at least 10 career starts.

Countdown: Three weeks to go and Brett Favre needs seven touchdown passes to throw to tie Dan Marino. On the Packers' final first-half drive, Favre reached 3,000 yards passing and extended two NFL records: Most overall seasons with 3,000 and most consecutive seasons with 3,000?(both 15).
In games when Favre compiles at least a 100.0 rating, the Packers are 4-0 this season, and 73-7 (.913) all-time. They're 40-0 at home (1.000) and 33-7 (.825) on the road. He has thrown for at least one TD pass in eight of his last nine games. Next three opponents: Detroit, Minnesota, at Chicago. And in 13 games, they have surrendered 19, 13 and 8 touchdown passes, respectively. Looks like Favre might have to play one more season.

On a Crazy Legs QB tilt: Michael Vick has rushed for 934 yards, 35 away from Bobby Douglass' 34-year-old record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a season. He needs 66 to become the first quarterback to run for 1,000 in a season. Will he get it against the Cowboys?

As for this week's games:

THIRSTY NIGHT

SEATTLE (-9½) vs. San Francisco - Forecasts are calling for rain and high winds in Seattle on Thursday night. There is a 100 percent chance of precipitation, with half an inch of rain expected to fall. He who builds his Ark of Frank Gores or Shawn Alexanders quicker, wins. SEAhawks. SEAttle. Sea, sea, sea - get the picture? Pick: Seattle.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Dallas (-3) vs. ATLANTA - Michael Vick continues to baffle. One week great, one week the King of Mediocre. And with Vick, so go the Falcons. Two good performances, two victories. On the other hand, Tony Romo finally broke his NFL cherry with a sad and disappointing display.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Pick; Dallas.

SUNDAYS

BALTIMORE (-11½) vs. Cleveland - The Browns, who have lost eight consecutive road games to division opponents, are trying to avoid a winless season against AFC North teams. They lost 27-7 to Pittsburgh on Dec. 7, dropping their division record to 0-5. Pick: Baltimore.

GREEN BAY (-5) vs. Detroit - Favre has never lost to Detroit (2-11) at home since being traded to Green Bay (5-8) before the 1992 season.The three-time MVP has thrown for 3,409 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions during the win streak, and also led the Packers to a home playoff win over the Lions in 1994. Pick: Green Bay.

NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. Houston - Gillette Stadium has not provided New England with the same home-field advantage this season as it has in previous years. The Patriots entered this season with wins in 22 of their last 25 home games, but are 4-3 at Gillette this year. Pick: Houston.

Jacksonville (-3) vs. TENNESSEE - Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tennessee. For the third time in 2006 and the fourth time in the last 13 months, Vince Young graces the weekly cover of Sports Illustrated in the wake of his 39-yard touchdown run Sunday in the Titans' 26-20 overtime win over the Texans at Reliant Stadium. SI JINX? Pick: Tennessee.

BUFFALO (-2) vs. Miami - Enthusiasm for the Bills appears to be waning. Despite both teams having outside playoff chances, by Monday, The Buffalo Bills said today that about 6,800 tickets remain for Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Pick: Miami

MINNESOTA (-3) vs. N.Y. Jets - The Vikings have the NFL's top-ranked run defense, giving up 703 yards on the ground through 13 games — an average of 54.1 yards which means Chad Pennington will have to win it for the Jets. Pick: Jets.

N.Y. GIANTS (-6) vs. Philadelphia - Tiki Barber enjoys tormenting the Eagles. He’s rushed for 915 yards in his last eight starts against the Birds, an average of 114.4 yards per game. In only two of those games has he failed to reach 100 yards. What’s encouraging is the Eagles limited Barber to just 51 yards on 21 rushes in their last meeting, a paltry 2.4-yard average. Pick: Philly.

Pittsburgh (-2½) vs. CAROLINA - The quick picture: one team with a QB whose downward spiral is almost as puzzling as his unmitigated success the season before, for a pair of weeks on the way back up with a Sysyphian task ahead of them, the other, a team whose QB is all thumbs and injured with barely hope to speculate upon yet still existing in the league where even a team with a losing record might become a wildcard. The Steelers did it last year, making the run no one expected. Could the Panthers do the same? Pick: Carolina

CHICAGO (-13) vs. Tampa Bay - Oh, here's an easy one. That's what you think most weeks before you're bashed on the head by parity. Pick: Da Bears.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. Washington - Momentum for this season's wonder boys. Joe Gibbs is busy planning on what will go wrong next year already. Pick: New Orleans.

Denver (-2) vs. ARIZONA (41½) - How rich, a battle between two rookie QBs, both of whom are exactly about where we expected them to be by this time in the season. Pick: Denver.

SAN DIEGO (-7½) vs. Kansas City - One of these days, the other shoe is going to drop on the Chargers. Either that, or they're on a roll all the way to the Super Bowl. Pick: KC. (my upset special)

OAKLAND (-1½) vs. St. Louis - C'mon, the Rayduhs? Pick: St Louis.

MNF

INDIANAPOLIS (-3½) vs. Cincinnati - Well, this is unusual twist to the Colts' season in that their downfall is coming a few weeks early. The logic of this season in the NFL is that if you're on a roll, you're going to be knocked off it and if you're flailing, you'll rise up to meet your righteous destiny. Pick: Cincinnati.