National League Preview

The biggest race of the National League just might be the race to 74. Is it even possible any more or are the days of inflated homerun numbers gasping their last breathes? Barry Bonds went from 73 homers to 46 last season. Sammy Sosa, from 64 to 49 and Junior, injury plagued and mercilessly burlesqued, from 22 homers to 8. The last time neither league was able to produce at least one 50 homer slugger was 1994 when Matt Williams led the majors with a paltry 43 dingers.

BEST CHANCE TO ADVANCE

Houston Astros: Now that their stadium is no longer associated with the sludge of the corporate greed and corruption of Enron, the biggest question for the Astros may be who, after Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, will fill out their rotation. They've just dumped Shane Reynolds. Brian Moehler, who split an uninspiring season between Detroit and Cincinnati last year, has a steady record of mediocrity for the last four seasons will likely replace him while two youngsters who had fine spring trainings, last year's Pacific Coast league Most Valuable Pitcher Jeriome Robertson and fireballer Tim Redding, will fill out the rotation. Beyond this lack of depth in the rotation however, the Astros have a fine bullpen, one of the league's best closers in Billy Wagner and setup man Octavio Dotel, who on any other team, would be a standout closer. The list of things the Astros have going right for them is long. Signing Jeff Kent adds to an already formidable lineup that includes Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Biggio and Richard (hope for 30/30, settle for 20/20) Hidalgo, who has recovered sufficiently from getting shot in the arm during the an attempted carjacking in the off season. In a division where every team has one sort of serious problem or another, from injured closers to poor rotations, the Astros have best one-two starting pitching punch and the best pen. After winning the division four of the last six seasons, the Astros should make juicy Minute Maid Park a winning stadium in no time.

Los Angeles Dodgers: With Eric Gagne as their closer, the Dodgers went 80-2 when leading after eight innings. They have the deepest rotation in the National League with Nomo, Perez and Ishii, Dreifort and Kevin Brown, who, with a fantastic spring, can be counted on to fight Junior for Comeback Player of the Year honors. To back them up in the field, the Dodgers made only 90 errors all season. Their lineup, with speed demon Dave Roberts at the top followed by LoDuca, Green, McGriff, Brian Jordan and Adrian Beltre, while not the most intimidating in the West, certainly outshines that of Arizona, whom they open the season against. They won 92 games last year without Kevin Brown and Dreifort and without the balance of solid left handed power that McGriff brings. This year, they should do even better.

New York Mets: This is certainly the most enigmatic team in the National League. Spring has been a long love fest with everyone chirping about how happy they are with the laid back Art Howe in control. No kidding. But being happy and laid back doesn't necessarily provoke two fading stars, Mike Piazza and Roberto Alomar, back into their usual career numbers. Fat Mo lost some weight, sure enough, but he still has the range of a stone at first base. The Mets never satisfactorily filled the infield holes or the centerfield hole in Cedeno's glove or the holes in the rotation. Being laid back won't fill those holes. You can be sure of one thing however, with the three top teams in the East having undergone radical off season changes, the Mets are the only ones who have to do it this season or bust. Half of the rotation should be pitching in the Old Timers games next year, Piazza, if he continues a stubborn refusal to move out from behind the plate, will continue to see his power numbers sink, Alomar appears to be heading in a swift downward spiral and their closer, Armando Benitez, chokes like Mama Cass on a ham sandwich when the game on the line has any meaning. That said, because they are my favorite team, I can look at the potential of this season unobjectively. I can say Cedeno may play like a blind man in center, but he's still got great speed and can get on base enough to put some juice in the lineup. I can say Wigginton can be the answer at third and will hit better than any of the candidates the Mets could have brought in to replace Edgardo Alfonso. I can say that Glavine and Leiter are two great clubhouse leaders with enough guile and experience to pitch their way to superb, although not overwhelming seasons. I can say that Fat Mo will hit 40 homers and even Burnitz, who laughs at his strikeouts as if they were punchlines to his power, could do the same. I can say that a healthy Cliff Floyd is the catalyst that holds the lineup together. I can say both Alomar and Piazza have one more decent season in them. I can say alot and of course, because they are my team, I can see things just as idiotically rosey as the players and management do. After all, if you can't go into a season with the hope your favorite team can make it into the post season, you might as well move to Milwaukee and root for the stinkin Brewers.

Atlanta Braves: The entire premise of the Braves winning the East is based upon the assumption that the Philadelphia Phillies, with all the pressure of their big acquisitions building on them and a hot head manager like Bowa to lead them, are going to crumple like tissue paper at the first sign of adversity. The Braves, on the other hand, are on autopilot most of the year, convinced as much as the Yankees that the division is theirs to lose. Yes, the Braves lost Glavine and gave Millwood away for the closest thing to free you can find. Yes, their bullpen took several hits. Yes, Javy Lopez is on his way down and Vinny Castillo hasn't hit his weight in spring training. But the lineup still boasts Laaaaarry Jones, Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield. It still has a Hall of Fame pitcher left over and the best closer in the division. The bullpen, the best in their history last season, is reconstructed from scratch but everyone being counted on, from Hernandez to Holmes, have had solid springs so the drop off might not be as hideous as some people expect. The good news is that Robert Fick, no longer boozing it up in the hangover that is the Detroit Tigers, will give the Braves some left handed punch at first base and the othergood news is that Skip Caray and Pete Van Wieren, who could put a crack head to sleep with their listless and hypnotic broadcasts for TBS, are gone. While I'm rooting for both Hampton and the Braves to falter miserably, like the Mets, the Braves aren't much, but they are experienced and they know how to win.

WOMEN AND CHILDREN FIRST

Milwaukee Brewers: For the first time in Milwaukee Brewers history, a Selig will not be president of the franchise so at least Brewers will have something to be happy about this year. New manager Ned Yost has already demonstrated he is a managing mastermind. "I believe that the clubhouse is your sanctuary," he said about the Brewers clubhouse to-be. "If you want to listen to music, it's very easy to put on a set of headphones, get in your own little world and listen to what you want and leave the 24 other guys out of it.". Yost wears his #3 uniform in honor of Dale Earnhardt who has nothing to do with baseball but from whom Yost says he learned "dogged determination". Yost is going to need more than dogged determination and a silent clubhouse to fix the Brewers. He'd need something like gazoo to get the Brewers back to .500. Unfortunately, gazoo is still busy helping Fred Flintstone out of his jams so Yost is going to have to take his lumps like the Brewers managers of the last ten losing years have and pray for a quick and painless dismissal.

Montreal Expos: Considering he was able to get the Expos to finish with a winning record and in second place last year, you might believe there isn't anything Frank Robinson can't do. The threat of contraction seems to have recuperative powers both in Montreal and in Minnesota. But this year brings even more distractions. Relocation. Playing in Canada and in Puerto Rico. Losing Bartolo Colon. Getting the Hernandez brothers. Not losing Fernando Tatis. And the soon-to-come Vladimir Guerrero sweepstakes. These things add up but they don't add up well.

San Diego Padres: Ever since the Padres couldn't get Phil Nevin to move to Cincinnati, it's been one headache after another. Call it the Junior Curse. Closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman has rotator cuff surgery and is lost for half the season. Nevin breaks his arm. The price of a gallon of gas in San Diego jumps to $2.21 a gallon. There are some nice suprises waiting to happen in San Diego, like Brandon Villafuerte and San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board's September deadline to devise a plan to better clean millions of gallons of contaminated ground water it pumps from beneath the downtown Convention Center and discharges into San Diego Bay. But other than that, you've got a stadium that sounds like a Middle East capital and a team mascot that represents a catholic priest. Neither has had a good year and the Padres won't either.

What The Hell Are We Doing Here Award: Will go to Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton who went from the National League division champs to the Pittsburgh Pirates in one off season.

This Is Not A Good Omen Award: The Philadelphia Phillies, after an offseason frenzy of free agents and stars which has their fans and many baseball experts squirming with anticipation, not only get no-hit in an exhibition game last night, but they get no-hit by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays! Yes, the Phillies were quick to point out that Jim Thome didn't play in the game but the rest of this fabled hitting Leviathan did and if Jim Thome is expected to carry this much of the burden, they should have paid him $185 million instead of $85 million. And yes, the Phillies stole Millwood from the Braves but let's not forget, Millwood was the number three starter for the Braves. He isn't Cy Young. Padilla has a bad attitude and a 7.58 ERA this spring, and Randy Wolf looks like he's pitching in a softball tournament instead of the major leagues. Add it up with the fact that their closer is Jose Mesa, Larry Bowa, a man who makes Lou Piniella look like Buddha, is their manager and the expectations in a city of mean-spirited fans like Philadelphia who won't wait for the Phillies to "discover" themselves and I think you've got the season's biggest train wreck waiting to happen.

What In The Name of Alex Gonzalez?: Has anyone else noticed that Alex Gonzalez is slated to play shortstop for both the Florida Marlins and the Chicago Cubs? No, not that Alex Gonzalez, the other Alex Gonzalez.

Close But No Cigar Award: To Chicago, St. Louis, San Franscico and Arizona. They all have good teams and they all have great chances to make the playoffs but little intangibles, like the Cardinals have no closer and half the starters are either already injured or so injury prone it's just a matter of games before they snap a joint or tear a muscle. The Cubs are a sentimental favorite for most of the world who loves perennial losers and people who like to think if you root long and hard enough, the odds are with the Cubs that some day they will win a World Series. The Giants can be summed up thusly: Felipe Alou for Dusty Baker (bad), Edgardo Alfonso for Jeff Kent (worse). Don't let all the other off season noise fool you. Dusty Baker held that team together for those many years and without him, they are just another team. The Diamondbacks, with the Johnson and Schilling and Pray for A Mercy Killing pitching staff will continue to prosper but the hitting is only done in private and you can't win 1-0 every game.

Predictions:

NL East: Atlanta, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Florida, Montreal
NL Cental: Houston, Chicago, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee
NL West: Los Angeles, Arizona, San Fransisco, Colorado and San Diego

MVP: Shawn Green
Cy Young: Randy Johnson
Biggest question: Will Jose Hernandez strikeouts become bunt singles in the thin air of Coors Field?