Training My Spring

Couldn't resist a little Peter Gammons reviewing the AL West since I've not read anything else and have fallen behind all of Spring Training save for knowing the Red Sox and Yankees both have injury troubles that could tip them over the edge before the season even starts. So Gammons says, AL West could be the site of the Wildcard. Intriguing except you know the Mariners are never going to amount to anything when they can't stop choking down the stretch and frankly, there's something ridiculous about the Angels making it again.

I'd go with the A's because of pitching. I wouldn't go with the Angels for even the Wildcard. Frankly, I'd like to see the Wildcard come out of the AL Central. White Sox and Royals? White Sox and Cubs World Series.

Right.

Here's how you know the Padres won't make it anywhere this year:

If the draft were held tomorrow, Jared Weaver would be the Padres' pick at No. 1. "He's as good as what we have," says one San Diego official. -- if he's as good as what they have and he's never pitched in the Major Leagues before, well, you do the math. PADRES ELIMINATED ALREADY.

Also notable: Gammons points out: "Just for some perspective on the meaning of won-loss records in spring training, the Marlins were 14-16 last spring, and the last five world champions were a combined 77-84 in the springs they won. Of course over the last five years the Yankees have two world championships, four pennants and five divisional titles, and have a combined spring training record of 71-86."

But AHA! How many teams with winning records in Spring Training went on to win the world series? Well, I had a quick search and found that there was a column on ESPN last March about this:

To get a sense of how well spring training records predict regular season success, we'll look at all spring training records back to 1996 (stopping there before we got to the severely abbreviated spring training of 1995). Let's look first at the very best spring teams.


Does a great spring mean a great regular season? Here are the 15 top spring records since 1996, along with records in the subsequent regular season:




Spring Training Reg Season
Team Year W L Pct W L Pct
Florida 1997 26 5 .839 92 70 .568
Boston 1998 20 8 .714 92 70 .568
Kansas City 1999 22 9 .710 64 97 .398
Los Angeles 1999 21 9 .700 77 85 .475
Baltimore 2002 20 9 .690 67 95 .414
Oakland 2001 22 10 .688 102 60 .630
Arizona 1999 22 10 .688 100 62 .617
Houston 2002 19 9 .679 84 78 .519
Texas 1998 21 10 .677 88 74 .543
California 1996 21 10 .677 70 91 .435
Baltimore 1998 18 9 .667 79 83 .488
Detroit 1996 20 10 .667 53 109 .327
Arizona 2002 23 12 .657 98 64 .605
St. Louis 1997 21 11 .656 73 89 .451
San Diego 1998 19 10 .655 98 64 .605
TOTALS 315 141 .691 1237 1191 .509


There isn't much reason to believe in spring training records here. Seven of these 15 March Monsters finished below .500 in the regular season. There are some outstanding teams on this list, but there are some truly awful teams too. In particular, notice the great spring put together by the 1996 Detroit Tigers. After they left Florida, they turned out to be the very worst major league team since the '60s.

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A look back at the Spring Training Yankees in 1951


Thanks Babe details Ruthian Spring Trainings:

"He was known as a tireless sexual athlete. One night, according to an often-told story that may not be true, but probably should be, Ruth brought a woman into the hotel suite he shared with the outfielder Bob Meusel. Meusel, half-asleep in his own room, tried to ignore the great commotion coming from Babe's room. Finally it stopped. Then Meusel smelled cigar smoke. Minutes later, the yells and cries returned, followed minutes later by more cigar smoke. Between noise and cigar smoke, Meusel slept badly that night.

In the morning, Meusel asked his roommate how many times he had been romantic.

"Count the cigars," Ruth said.

Seven butts lay in the ash tray."

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Bookmarks Revealed: a great new baseball site: The Hardball Times

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Hey, what about ESPN's Ten Players Most Likely To Be Moved piece?

The Rangers reportedly would trade Alfonso Soriano to the Mets for Scott Kazmir, but New York is reluctant to part with its prized pitching prospect. No secret there. But at least they're down from asking for Reyes. Frankly, Soriano is a proven commodity. Kazmir, to date, isn't. I'm not so enamoured with prospects, these can't miss numbers, especially when they're pitchers. I remember when the Mets traded (careful, this is a PDF link) Octavio Dotel, etc for what in essence amounted to Mike Hampton -- and at the time everyone was whining and worrying because Dotel had so much potential. He was going to be a starter, an ace, better than Hampton's wet dreams. Sure, he's a good pitcher but let's say the Mets had been able to resign Hampton -- it'd have been a better deal overall. Dotel has been with the Astros since 2000 as a nice set-up guy and now he's an unproven closer, FOUR YEARS LATER.

For my money, I'd trade Kazmir, take the chance and add Soriano. Not that it matters anyway with Reyes always out hurt, two thirds of the outfield nursing bone spurs in their lower extremities which could sideline for the season at any minute and Piazza remaining a liability at the plate.

I'd package Piazza off to the AL whilst he still has some potential. Mariners? Red Sox? Yankees? He'd make a lovely DH for the right team and maybe the Mets could get another arm to fill in their LOSER ROTATION for this up and coming season.

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And finally, more good news: Newcastle boss Sir Bobby Robson has revealed he may remain at St James' Park after his current contract finishes at the end of next season.