THE PENNSYLVANIA BOWL:
Tales From The Well of Wishful Thinking

Only twice in history known to man has one state been the home state of both opponents in the Super Bowl. The Bills and Giants did it once with famous results and the Chargers and 49ers did it once, to less exciting affect. Not only would an Eagles-Steelers Super Bowl pit two teams from the same state against each other but it would be the closest two opponents have been geographically. A real interstate derby. Buffalo and NYC are at opposite ends of the state, ditto San Diego and San Francisco. But Pittsburgh and Philly? Quite nearly spitting distance, comparatively.

Football is the only major professional sport where this is possible, to have an all-Pennsylvania final. The Phillies can't play the Pirates in the World Series, the Flyers can't play the Penguins in the Stanley Cup (if there were one anymore) and of course, the 76ers would have no one to play in the NBA finals. So this is a unique time for Pennsylvanians.

Now of course, the question is, now that they've positioned themselves for the possibility, what are the chances it will actually happen?

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

We all know that Michael Vick is the kind of one dimensional, slick swivel-hipped master of elusion that can confound the smartest of defensive coordinators. We know that Atlanta have the best rushing attack in the NFL and that the threat of Vick everywhere is what helps that attack. Countering that is the Eagles under-impressive, 16th ranked defence against the run. Oh yeah, and three consecutive losses for the Iggles in the NFC Championship.

Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Gods of Snow and Cold have paid them a visit. Just as snow and cold and wind effects an offence like the Colts' indoor passing video game, so will dodgy footing effect a slippery runner. Of course, it will also effect those trying to chase him as well so it is fortunate that the Eagles, considering the Falcons rather feeble passing attack, can afford to leave a few men extra around in case Vick escapes. And let's face it, the surface will effect Vick's speed so his chances of escaping will be limited.

None of that prevents the Falcons' running game however. And it's no groundbreaking theory to spout the fact that if the Falcons pound the ball successfully, the Eagles will be staring down the barrel of their 4th straight NFC Championship loss, moving into and past Bud Grant territory and counting, whom the cold and snow rarily seemed to help when it counted.

So obviously, the question is will the Falcons be able to pound the ball successfully, use up the clock and keep the Eagle offence shivering on the sidelines? And since you've read this far for the answer, the answer is, no, they won't be able to. Eagles defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson is no fool and with a pathetic clan of receivers to throw to and an inaccurate arm in Vick to throw to them, the guess is the Eagles defence can afford to cheat against the run a little. Especially in the cold. You might see a few slips by the defensive backfield that will allow a flukishly big passing play succeed once in the game but it won't be enough to stop the Eagles from cheating against the run.

One thing that seems a fair certainty is the Falcons defence doesn't really have the capacity of stopping anyone, let alone the Eagles. They have a nice pass rush which is useful against teams that are pass-heavy, like the Rams, but against an evenly balanced team like the Eagles, that pass rush is neutralised, especially when the Eagles have a slippery, agile QB of their own to contend with in that rush.

So Sports Amnesia's forecast for the first match of the day is that the Eagles will hold up their end of the bargain, leap over three years of failure and make it to the Super Bowl. I just can't stomach the alternative: a one dimensional QB like Vick making it to the Super Bowl before he's even learned how to pass. This isn't the Big 8 Championship, it is the NFC Championship. And keep an eye out on an early Philly lead. The Falcons will be mince meat if they have to play catch-up.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24 Atlanta 13

*****

New England World Champions @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

The litany of failure in the Bill Cowher era isn't as bad as Philadelphia's but on the other hand, the Bill Cowher era hasn't been good to Steeler fans in games that matter. However, for those looking for a silver lining in Cowher's failures, look no further than the line. Cowher's teams' histories of losing the big ones are when they are favourites, not when they are underdogs.

My first thought after watching the Steelers nearly choke their way out of the playoffs on the wings of their own rookie QB was that if this same QB has to face the intensity of a Belichick-designed gameplan, he doesn't stand a chance.

And of course, by himself, Roethlisberger doesn't stand a chance. Although the Steelers have continued winning despite themselves, the margin of error has been narrowing, week by week. Roethlisberger's numbers get worse and worse and eventually, this entire undefeated myth will be unraveled once and for all.

However, this isn't a team built on Roethlisberger's abilities as a QB, it is built on everything else around him. A powerful offensive line, a pair of dynamic, bruising running backs, and an overwhelming defence. Precisely the sort of team you usually see make it to the Super Bowl. The anti-Colts, if you will.

One of the great things about this match is that it matches power against power. Two great rushing attacks, two great offensive lines. The difference lies of course, in the defenses and the QBs. We know the Steelers have but one choice and that is to succeed on the ground. If it's up to Roethlisberger to save this game, well, it isn't hard to see New England celebrating another Super Bowl title. If the Patriots running game fails, at least they've still got the magical Tom Brady to fill the void.

Now here's the funny thing: Just last week, some of us, the non-believers anyway, thought the formula was all too clear. You had on one hand, the record-setting passing attack of the Colts facing a Patriot's defence without anyone worth mentioning to defend the pass. Here, you say to yourself, is where the Belichick myth and the Achilles heel of the Patriots is finally exposed. Too easy. Of course, there were little warning bells, like Peyton Manning's pathetic track record matching wits against Belichick, but we gleefully ignored them and assumed one team's strength against one team's weakness would make for a powerful statement. Pity we fools who doubted.

This week a similarly simple equation arrives. The master, Belichick, who utterly, completely and humiliatingly shut down the NFL's best QB and most terrifying passing game seemingly with ease, facing a rookie QB who last week against the Jets looked every bit like a University of Miami of Ohio QB who was utterly and completely out of his element in the NFL's post season. This seems too easy, like last week. The guts tell you, jump on the Belichick bandwagon if there's still a seat or two remaining.

I know that at this stage in the season, motivation shouldn't play much of a factor. For example, the Steelers victory over the Patriots earlier in the season is utterly meaningless. You can't seriously say, well the Patriots will want revenge. It simply doesn't matter at this point. However, you could say that even though the Steelers trumped the Patriots, they aren't getting any respect. Think about this for a moment. The Steelers lost only one game all season, have an amazing winning streak currently running, their QB has NEVER lost a game AND they are playing at home. Against any other team in the NFL, they'd probably be favoured by at least a touchdown yet against the Patriots, they are three point underdogs at home!

This has got to stick in the craw of the Steelers. And again, how much of a factor this will play is questionable because both teams are going to come out well prepared and slugging. In a very close game, which this is sure to be, the slightest edge like feeling disrespected as a team, might be a factor.

So here goes the Sports Amnesia crew of disbelievers dissing the Patriots yet again.

Prediction: Steelers 20 Patriots 14